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ARTIE --are you trying to say something ?
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Cuban, Don , why are you wasting your time with these Dreamers ........???
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zipper - i know its only a forum , but i honestly CANT STAND YOU -and many feel the same i bet
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zipper of all people, as an ex bookmaker, you should understand the maths of it. Or perhaps that's why you are an ex bookie!
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BEAT
Youve been good enough to explain what you do and answer any points raised so i dont really see the point of you responding anymore and waiting to get slated gl |
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Yes,thanks for your posts BTO.Good luck !
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Yes, good luck fellas.
If you have questions just ask, I'll refrain from responding to the needlers. |
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how would somebody like me , an idiot , find ideas for different types of strategies ?
not after the holy grail -just a few ideas to look into . thanks |
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simple - to lay the favourite you have to offer better odds than those offered by the bookmakers themselves, else your lay monies sit there forever. if you top the bookies,you lose
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Another good day against the dogs. The stats are now:
Lays Markets Total Stake P+L % Profit 79 40 115,17 13,63 11,83% I think I'll let it run for awhile and see how it goes. |
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BTO and Aye Robot,I'd appreciate your thoughts on this scenario.
Horse opens 7/1,then goes 13/2 6/1 11/2 5/1 in the betting.Bookies average odds layed at is 6/1. If I can get my average lay odds down to 11/2 (half a point shorter),would that be a long term winner ? |
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Horse opens 7/1,then goes 13/2 6/1 11/2 5/1 in the betting.Bookies average odds layed at is 6/1.
If I can get my average lay odds down to 11/2 (half a point shorter),would that be a long term winner ? Absolutely. But are you talking about early prices or live show prices? Are you just laying 10 ticks below or in increments. I'll give you something to improve the profit dramatically. Stay away from any horse that opens in the ring @ less than $3.00 |
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Beat The OverRound 13 Dec 17:51
Some examples: Bookie opens $2.00 My lays $1.90 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 Bookie opens $5.00 My lays $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.80 $2.60 ************************** BTO - For clarification - could you define a 'tick' .. you lay in descending lots of 10 ticks, I think - don't understand second example above. What is 10 ticks for a 7/1 shot? Also could you define 'Top Fluctation' price? Many Thanks. |
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Broke even yesterday vs the dogs. Stats are now:
Lays Markets Total Stake P+L % Profit 111 61 170,52 13,93 8,17% |
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BTO
I work from the opening shows from the track.Although I load in increments,I've yet to match a horse more than twice,and twice has only happened 4 times from 50 races.Also,I only get one horse matched most of the time per race. |
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BTO - For clarification - could you define a 'tick' .. you lay in descending lots of 10 ticks, I think - don't understand second example above.
What is 10 ticks for a 7/1 shot? Also could you define 'Top Fluctation' price? Many Thanks. A tick is a betting increment that Betfair uses, different price ranges have different increments, like the bookies roll of the board. You can work it out using the Betfair site, input a price and then click ten times lower. A 7/1 shot is $8.00 decimal, so ten ticks lower is $6.00 or 5/1. Try this on the Betfair site, input 8.00 in the odds box and then click ten times on the bottom arrow. Top fluctuation is the best price bookmakers gave on track. You can get these from the Sporting Life Live Shows website. |
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I work from the opening shows from the track.Although I load in increments,I've yet to match a horse more than twice,and twice has only happened 4 times from 50 races.Also,I only get one horse matched most of the time per race.
Yes using Live Shows only that would be right. If you stay away from horses that open $3.00 or less, your profit will be a lot better. |
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I rarely get matched below 3.0 with the strategy I use,so it wouldn't make a difference to my p/l.
Cheers anyways,and a Happy New Year to all of you ! |
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Is anyone else doing this,if so how are you finding it so far ?
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Laying the Fav IN Every race Work ......... Dont you know FA about Form .. Well thats why it dont work .
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Hang on ... I got it now its 7/4 fav most be a good thing .. finished 3rd last time .. beaten by a very poor crab .. horse who was 2nd will never win a race ...
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Hello Zip, this thread has gone off at a tangent to what the opening poster was asking.It's evolved into Beatheoverounds thread,which is what my posts are related to.
Anyhow,happy new year to you Zip,your wife,and your nurse lol,and plenty more of them.(new years,not nurses,tho I don't know ;) |
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Tiger ...... Happy New Year To you and your loved ones ...... good on you .
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Beat The OverRound 30 Dec 03:45
You would be amazed at what just a little effort in statistics will reveal. I started out trying to gather some data for a project, and I stumbled on a gold mine to my amazement - purely by accident. The more work you put in, the greater the rewards. And no, I won't be revealing this one ;) |
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Horse opens 7/1,then goes 13/2 6/1 11/2 5/1 in the betting.Bookies average odds layed at is 6/1.
If I can get my average lay odds down to 11/2 (half a point shorter),would that be a long term winner ? Tiger, personally I don't buy the "average price" thing full stop, to me it just looks like placing a bunch of poor value bets which spoil the good ones. I just decide what price I find acceptable and try to get it, if I can't get the price I want I don't play. There's no point in placing bets that you don't want, all that will do is cost you comission. If I think the price that it suits me to lay at is 3 then I don't want 3.5, if I get it wrong and the price goes way past me to 2 then I don't lay again to try and change my average price as that would just increase my liability, I just take the hit and use whatever exit strategy I had planned (if any) or let it stand if that was my intention. So- for you to get an "average" price of 11/2 you must have layed a bet at a price shorter than that, as far as I'm concerned that bet is then only one I want- the rest just erode the value of it. I think an important point to emphasise here is the difference between an exchange player and a bookie. When a bookie is taking bets on a horse at the top of it's fluctuation he can afford to do so because he is simultaneously taking bets on other horses at the bottom of theirs. A bookie is playing a different game to us because he's constantly balancing his books (or at least controling liabilities), for this reason price movements do not effect him nearly as dramatically as they do us. In contrast to this we are dependant on taking bets on different horses at different times (if we want to reduce liabilities) so we are absolutle dependant on price movements. Top put it another way- A bookie can afford to offer prices that are not always good value (to him) because he's continuously off-setting these bad value bets with good value bets (from his perspective) on other runners. As prices change through the day the value offered on each selection may change but his over-round remains intact. You or I don't have this luxury, we have to make every bet count. The "average price" a bookie lays on any given runner may well represent value to the backer, that's fine for a bookie- but it's disasterous to us. For this reason I find BTO's comparison of his strategy with what a bookie does massively overstated as it fails to take acount of this crucial difference. |
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eh ?
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Answer to Tame The Tiger from yesterday.
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Thankyou Mr.Robot.An excellent post and I'm in total agreement.I can see what you mean just by playing around with the "what if" feature.Load the prices to match bookies odds,then push one out,and still its all green.
I've made books on markets and despite laying the 4/1 SP winner at 6/1,I have still made money on the race.So I know where you're coming from. Incidentally,just because I'm laying 7/1's at an average price of 11/2,doesn't mean to say I layed lower at some point. Some things BTO has said,I also know to be correct from my own experiences.It's almost uncanny how he came to be under 9/1 and over 2/1.I've got the same bands. I'm not following BTO's method to the letter,but have incorporated a few of his ideas into my own break even strategy,and so far so good. Hopefully it will be the gold mine BTO has,as stated above. I appreciate both your posts,good health to you. |
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tame -do you think this might work better in running ?
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To be fair to BTO if he has a method that works for him and he's in profit then good luck to him, I don't mean my posts to be a personal attack on him in any way and he's obviously a big step in front of many. I do find some of his assertions to be flawed though, and I think it's right to put a counter view.
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I haven't tried it Brian,but I very much doubt it.
BTO had his own in-running strategy that he says works,but it was a different set up to this. |
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many of these front runners over sprints shorten dramatically ---- so if it started at 6 BSP ---your 1st bet at 5 would probably be took within 10 secs --if it doesnt lead ---CANCEL
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That wasn't far from the basics of BTO's strategy Brian.
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in the last couple of weeks , seen a few of these front runners , that have won in their prev race given an uncontested lead .
but when in their next race ( prom in the market , due to their last win )they have opp for the lead , they always seem to burn out , |
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I think an important point to emphasise here is the difference between an exchange player and a bookie. When a bookie is taking bets on a horse at the top of it's fluctuation he can afford to do so because he is simultaneously taking bets on other horses at the bottom of theirs. A bookie is playing a different game to us because he's constantly balancing his books (or at least controling liabilities), for this reason price movements do not effect him nearly as dramatically as they do us. In contrast to this we are dependant on taking bets on different horses at different times (if we want to reduce liabilities) so we are absolutle dependant on price movements.
Top put it another way- A bookie can afford to offer prices that are not always good value (to him) because he's continuously off-setting these bad value bets with good value bets (from his perspective) on other runners. As prices change through the day the value offered on each selection may change but his over-round remains intact. You or I don't have this luxury, we have to make every bet count. The "average price" a bookie lays on any given runner may well represent value to the backer, that's fine for a bookie- but it's disasterous to us. For this reason I find BTO's comparison of his strategy with what a bookie does massively overstated as it fails to take acount of this crucial difference. Hello gents, Aye Robot you make some very informed points and I certainly welcome healthy debate with intelligent people, it's the clowns that get up my nose. It's obvious you put a lot of thought into this. P.S. Tame The Tiger, the gold mine I mentioned on the other thread, does not refer to this strategy. It is something else I'm using and can't possibly share, as the edge would surely evapourate given the price band I'm working. Now, there are subtle differences between a bookie and an exchange which AR is quite right in bringing up and his points are valid. After all, if we could match all bookies prices even at top fluctuation, we'd all be making in excess of 25% every single race. However, although a bookie has the added lay value on other horses it is rare for a bookie to have a balanced book,his liabilities are always going to be unbalanced on the top end of the market and even more so on steamers. His top fluctuation bets on steamers are offset by bets taken on other horses, however below top fluctuation his liability is solely at the average lay price that is not offset. This approach considers that we hypothetically took bets and balanced our book at top fluctuation and now our steamer is matched ten ticks below top fluctuation where our liability is. Therefore we are in much the same situation as the bookie, but not having been matched on the others. Added to this is that we can control our exposure, we don't have to take bets of certain amounts, we are able to take bets to whatever liability we want. |
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Early indications are that I'm laying on average 27% under opening show,but I'm 17% over SP.Those are the figures for the actual odds taken,and don't include commission.With laying so late I'm not getting any "ping-pongs".I'm in front but can't see it lasting,not at 17% over SP + comm.
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