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Usually big fields with a few big firmers.
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But I guess there going to be a lot of races with all your exposure on 1 horse matched 2 or 3 times ?
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Donnie.
Yes,same here,usually one or two horses matched,have had 3 a couple of times. A big red on one,a smaller red on another,the rest green. Moon. I'm not covering the Irish races. |
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Just got matched on Financial Regulator @ 3.75 :)
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was that in-running Donnie ?
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Now on Thunderstruck @ 3.25
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No. it was taken before the off and then drifted to over 6.0 before off. Lowest price matched( £44 traded)
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Matched on hurakan which lost
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I saw the BFSP and assumed the 3.75 must have been in-running.Nice !
Matched bookies SP on Thunderstruck.Nice ! |
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Was that your £244 at 4.74 Moon ?
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some of it
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Oooh. Matched at 7.0 & 5.5 Our Gar. Fingers crossed now
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They've pounded it , I'm red big on it!
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5.2 and 4.2 here
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oh dear gl
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Taken again at 4.0. Big red here now :(
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At least you're getting your average price down Donnie,lol
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That was exciting wasn't it chaps ?
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Well done fav :)
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We're good Donnie
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PPPPHHHHEEEEEEEEEEWWWWWW
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Al Khimiya taken @ 8.0 in next
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Did you load your prices up this early this am Donnie ?
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:( :( :(
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Matched kai mook twice in running
lost |
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I had Al K loaded up at 7.0,not matched.(opened 8/1)
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Wish I'd put 7.0 in now lol. Loaded todays bets up at about 1.30pm. Usually do them first thing though.
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Was it 9/1 earlier then ?
A narrow escape if it was for me and BTO |
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I'm thinking it may be a good idea to adjust my lay prices from early show to the opening show from the track when that comes through.What do you guys think.
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Donnie
Read BTO's post at 04.56 today.I'd agree with what he says there. i.e less matched,but early gambles avoided. I've done loading early and loading after live shows.So far can't see any advantage or disadvantage either way. |
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hows it gone today , lads ?
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Quiet day so far,think Donnie took a hit.
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Not too bad altogether.Just matched in the last Labisa 5.5,Musical Script 6.4.Missed the early races at Thurles unfortunately and lost on one that got matched at 8.0 when I should have cancelled it after opening show. Up about £9 on the day.On to tomorrow :)
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Well done Donnie,can't be bad to finish ahead despite having layed a 7/1 winner.
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IT was Our Gar that was a big winner for me .3 lays taken but would have been a bad hit if that one had gone in.
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Hi, I laid it at 6 and 4 on the way down. I'm up $12 on the$40 laid over 3 days following this idea. Actually, Betfair did a study years ago on the effect on the profitability of steamers and found that that you would be down 10% ( or so) overall after a season of backing all steamers (5% or more firming in the odds). BTO's idea confirms this and exploits this very efficiently.But it takes patience and a rather large bank, I mean playing with only $100 for example means you will be placing $1 lay bets. It will take a long period to build up a small bank, much longer than trading would. I found I could double my trading bank between 2 and 3 weeks, but I wonder how long it would take to double a bank even at 20% edge. I also wonder if it is applicable to AUS, US racing, Place markets and geyhounds. I believe it would be... any thoughts? I mean, would there be any fundamental reason why those markets would be any different? Thanks for your thoughts and input.
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Hello Snapper,followed your interesting trading tips thread the other week. The reason I took interest in this idea is because I was doing something similar on the dogs a couple of years ago.It was doing ok but gradually lost confidence after some losing spells and thought I may have just been lucky and didnt have the time to research it further. I actually think I was influenced by the belief that laying dogs that were unders on here was not a good place to be.So I think there may be something in it. BTO has said in this thread that he covers the Aus racing but I dont know how he prices up the horses in advance without early prices or track shows.Maybe BTO will give us his thoughts on Aus/US racing.
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In my experience, In AUS the closer a BF price is to the bookies price the more chance it has of winning, in fact it seems to be a pretty good sign, and if the BF price happens to be less than the Aus bookie price jump on, because there is such low liquidity you can be sure if anyone is willing to back the horse down below the bookies they must be pretty confident they have a winner, insiders money.
Same goes for laying, even though it seems like terrible odds to lay a horse that is maybe 200% more than the Aussie bookie price, you'll probably find those horses never win, might as well be 500% worse. A lot of the money on the AUS horses at BF is very knowledgable. |
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you'll probably find those horses never win, might as well be 500% worse
I'd like to see the stats on that. I would suspect that over the long run, the profitability on steamers is similar to UK steamers (-10+%) and vice-versa for difters. Personally, I prefer price trading because it seems that to earn a worthwhile income from this you would have to a)price up many markets or b)have a sizeable stake, which means a 100 times larger bank. But, if you have plenty of time or money, then this could be for you. A few years back, I was laying greyhounds at 5 ticks off the BF price up to 5 lays per runner. After a few weeks of ups and downs I ended up around 3% in profit and decided to end it because although it was slightly profitable, it was nowhere nearly as profitable as trading considering the time involved. |
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Yes, I do exactly the same on Oz races using betchoice.com.au, they have live prices from the track.
I agree about liquidity issues on some meetings, and too many oz punters are too scared or too greedy to take an early position. They want $6.00 about a $3.00 favourite early. I don't agree about steamers and drifters. Taking even 50% higher prices about drifters laying will send you broke very quickly. In fact, I have a successful backing method based around taking overs on drifters. |