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Very impressive strike rate so far. Even if overall rate falls to 80% should still be profitable.
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keep grinding on steve,your overall strike rate is still impressive so far.
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Cheers Lads - as I said in previous posts, my current SR of around 90ish% is too high and variance will come in and kick it down to about 85% long term......
Although over the last 6 months it has remained at around 89%. I think profits can be achieved with a 80% SR if laying to fairly reasonable prices. Good Luck Steve |
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do you have a framework for shortlisting your selections?
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Saturday 25th April 2009
Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank: £6,637.78 Bank High: £6,637.78 Todays Stakes Remain Unchanged: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £66.38 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £59.74 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £53.10 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £46.46 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £39.82 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £33.18 Prices from 8.6 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £26.55 Tonights Selections: Haydock: 6.40 Lets Roll 7.10 Capucci Wolverhampton: 7.20 Pinball 7.50 Andoran 9.20 Diktatorship Todays Takings: £ Less 5 % Comm. Todays Losses: £ Profit/Loss £ Bank: £6,406.50 Level Stakes: Todays P + L Total P + L +59.36 Points Todays Strike Rate Total Strike Rate 90% 133 Wins from 148 bets |
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GazzaB 25 Apr 15:31 do you have a framework for shortlisting your selections? Hi GazzaB - yes mate.....but I don't want to discuss the selection making process. Sorry. Steve |
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steve, do you place all the lays before the start of racing ? ( apart from the ones that you note are still shortening of course )
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supersavo 25 Apr 15:35 steve, do you place all the lays before the start of racing ? ( apart from the ones that you note are still shortening of course ) Hi super - no not necessarily mate. Depends if i'm in or out during the remainder of the day really. I'm usually sat in front of the pc for both afternoon and evening cards. I do place some lays early doors but really depends on what's happening in the market and also how certain horses prices have traded prior to racing before. Steve |
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cheers steve, good luck with the rest of today :-)
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Just for info, these are the breakeven stike rates at level stakes assuming 5% comm. (rounding up to two decimal places):
Evens: 51.29% 2/1: 67.80% 3/1: 75.95% 4/1: 80.81% 5/1: 84.04% 6/1: 86.34% 7/1: 88.06% 8/1: 89.39% 9/1: 90.46% 10/1: 91.33% Regards Rigi. |
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steve, what are you going to do with the extra commission cash ? ( you are allowing 5%, but doing your lays daily, presumably actual rate a fair bit lower ) if i remember correctly, Maria used to buy expensive shoes with it ;-)
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Rigi123 25 Apr 16:53
Just for info, these are the breakeven stike rates at level stakes assuming 5% comm. (rounding up to two decimal places): Evens: 51.29% 2/1: 67.80% 3/1: 75.95% 4/1: 80.81% 5/1: 84.04% 6/1: 86.34% 7/1: 88.06% 8/1: 89.39% 9/1: 90.46% 10/1: 91.33% Regards Rigi. Hey Rigi - thanks a lot for those figures. interesting reading. I'm currently going over my figures and am trying to find out my average lay price in order to establish a target SR which should be interesting. I'll post my findings if you are interested mate. Cheers Steve supersavo 25 Apr 17:01 steve, what are you going to do with the extra commission cash ? ( you are allowing 5%, but doing your lays daily, presumably actual rate a fair bit lower ) if i remember correctly, Maria used to buy expensive shoes with it SS - i'm not sure mate. Currently pumping most of it back in to try and get the stakes up and compound the profits right up ;-) Strappy Heels not really my cup of tea ;p |
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Yes go ahead when you are ready.
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Wolverhampton:
9.20 Diktatorship - No Longer a selection |
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Saturday 25th April 2009
Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank: £6,786.03 Bank High: £6,786.03 Well after a shaky start it turned out ok - with 15/16 obliging (or not).....And the bank is now on a new high so stakes increase pro rata tomorrow :-) Don't the parasites go quiet when it goes the other way - not a peep ;-) Todays Selections: Sandown: 1.00 Nisal 5.1 £53.10 9/2jf L ;-) 1.35 Alsadaa 8.8 £26.55 13/2 W :-( 2.35 Oumayade 8.4 £33.18 7/1 L ;-) 3.10 Oodachee 8.2 £33.18 15/2 L ;-) 3.45 Dream Eater 7.8 £33.18 7/1 L ;-) 4.15 Buccellati 11.5 £26.55 10/1 L ;-) 4.50 Tartan Gigha 9.2 £26.55 7/1 L ;-) Leicester: 1.55 Kipchak 6.2 £46.46 9/2jf L ;-) 4.10 Princelywallywogan 6.0 £46.46 4/1 L ;-) Ripon: 2.20 Coleorton Choice 4.4 £59.74 10/3 L ;-) Market Rasen: 2.45 Sycho Fred 6.2 £46.46 11/2 L ;-) 3.20 Abbey Minster 6.4 £46.46 5/1 L ;-) Haydock: 6.40 Lets Roll 9.4 £26.55 13/2 L ;-) 7.10 Capucci 7.2 £39.82 5/1jf L ;-) Wolverhampton: 7.20 Pinball 6.4 £46.46 4/1 L ;-) 7.50 Andoran 4.9 £53.10 5/1 L ;-) Todays Takings: £617.25 Less 5 % Comm. £586.63 Todays Losses: £207.09 Profit/Loss £379.53 Bank: £6,786.03 Level Stakes: Todays P + L +6.45 Points Total P + L +65.81 Points Todays Strike Rate 94% Total Strike Rate 89% 148 Wins from 166 bets |
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well done pro excellent again.Dont worry about parasites,bitter losers no doubt
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Another way to look at your performance is on a risk weighted basis. For example if you lay a horse at 5/1 for £100 you risk £500 for a gain of £95 (£100 less 5% comm). Your value at risk is 81% and your risk weighted return is (£95/£500) * (1 - 0.81) or 3.61%. You have a starting bank of £5000 and are showing a profit of £1600 in a month. If your average lay is say 5/1 your risk weighted return for the month is (£1600 / £5000) * (1 - 0.81) or 6.08%. For the annual rate multiply by 12 giving 72.96%. At an average lay of 6/1 your annual rate is 60.80% and at 7/1 it is 52.1%. Top, top gamblers rarely achieve rates of over 40% so really well done so far and my best wishes for the future.
Rigi. |
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Hi ProPunta
Don't really know anything about the GGs, but your posts look well-considered and disciplined. It's also nice to see someone turning a steady profit. Good luck to you. |
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theborderfox 25 Apr 23:28
well done pro excellent again.Dont worry about parasites,bitter losers no doubt Hi theborderfox - Thanks bud....no, I won't :-) just amazes me what sort of thrill they get from being so negative and childish! probably bigtime losers :-) Rigi123 26 Apr 08:58 Another way to look at your performance is on a risk weighted basis. For example if you lay a horse at 5/1 for £100 you risk £500 for a gain of £95 (£100 less 5% comm). Your value at risk is 81% and your risk weighted return is (£95/£500) * (1 - 0.81) or 3.61%. You have a starting bank of £5000 and are showing a profit of £1600 in a month. If your average lay is say 5/1 your risk weighted return for the month is (£1600 / £5000) * (1 - 0.81) or 6.08%. For the annual rate multiply by 12 giving 72.96%. At an average lay of 6/1 your annual rate is 60.80% and at 7/1 it is 52.1%. Top, top gamblers rarely achieve rates of over 40% so really well done so far and my best wishes for the future. Rigi. Morning Rigi - thanks again for your input, very interesting. Havent got around to completing all the lay prices yet.....got over year's figs to plough through still. Looking at my usual lay prices I would have thought that around 11/2 would be a fairly average price, considering I dont lay too many above 8/1 and lay quite a lot in the 3-1 to 5-1 price range. Thanks also for your kind, encouraging words Rigi. Good Luck today mate. Steve ebasson61 26 Apr 09:26 Hi ProPunta Don't really know anything about the GGs, but your posts look well-considered and disciplined. It's also nice to see someone turning a steady profit. Good luck to you. Morning ebasson61 - Thanks a lot mate good luck. Steve |
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Sunday 26th April 2009
Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank: £6,786.03 Bank High: £6,786.03 Todays Stakes Increase to: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £67.86 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £61.07 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £54.28 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £47.50 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £40.71 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £33.93 Prices from 8.6 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £27.14 Today's Selections: Brighton: 2.40 Batchworth Blaise Wetherby: 4.00 Mandingo Chief Ludlow: 4.15 Treasury Counsel Todays Takings: £ Less 5 % Comm. £ Todays Losses: £ Profit/Loss: £ Bank: £6,786.03 Level Stakes: Todays P + L + Points Total P + L +65.81 Points Todays Strike Rate Total Strike Rate 89% |
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1977 26 Apr 13:59
Sunday 26th April 2009 Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank: £6,786.03 Bank High: £6,786.03 Todays Stakes Increase to: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £67.86 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £61.07 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £54.28 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £47.50 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £40.71 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £33.93 Prices from 8.6 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £27.14 Today's Selections: Brighton: 2.40 Batchworth Blaise 7.6 £33.93 17/2 L :-) Wetherby: 4.00 Mandingo Chief 4.9 £54.28 3/1 W :-( Ludlow: 4.15 Treasury Counsel 3.9 £61.07 5/2 jf L :-) Todays Takings: £95.00 Less 5 % Comm. £90.25 Todays Losses: £211.69 Profit/Loss: £121.43 Bank: £6,664.60 Level Stakes: Todays P + L -2.00 Points Total P + L +63.81 Points Todays Strike Rate 66.66% Total Strike Rate 89% |
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Monday 27th April 2009
Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank: £6,664.60 Bank High: £6,786.03 Todays Stakes remain unchanged: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £67.86 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £61.07 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £54.28 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £47.50 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £40.71 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £33.93 Prices from 8.6 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £27.14 Today's Selections: Towcester: 2.40 Menelaus 3.40 Guns Of Love 4.10 Spider Boy 4.40 Crank Hll Newcastle: 3.20 Bateleur 4.20 Barney McGrew Plumpton: 3.00 Most Definately 4.00 Lowe Go 4.30 Walton Way Southwell: 6.10 Handsinthemist Windsor: 6.55 Carleton Todays Takings: £ Less 5 % Comm. £ Todays Losses: £ Profit/Loss: £ Bank: £6,664.60 Level Stakes: Todays P + L Total P + L +63.81 Points Todays Strike Rate Total Strike Rate 89% |
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Towcester:
2.40 Menelaus |
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Towcester:
2.40 Menelaus *****No Longer a selection - no lay***** |
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good job i checked back, had already layed that one, backed back at same price.
Best of luck for today steve |
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I layed it successfully.
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Was in two minds whether or not to leave it in - decided not to lay earlier but forgot to remove from post. Although I said last week that once posted I would leave them! oh well! nice price too
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shame u checked back super :-)
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non runner in 3:40 now, still laying Guns of Love ?
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yep no worries steve...
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supersavo 27 Apr 15:29 non runner in 3:40 now, still laying Guns of Love ? supersavo 27 Apr 15:29 yep no worries steve... Hi Dave - yes mate. Only withdrew Menelaus as I had decided against it this a.m. but still included it in list. Cheers Steve |
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Nice one, wrongly assumed it was due to n/r, layed G O L :-) ta for feedback.
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hmm looks like i will have to let Lowe Go run without opposing it.. 13.0 ... discipline ;-)
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price came in, layed @ 11
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to big for my comfort level
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damn - I layed @ 10.5 earlier - looked like drifting right out. 9.8 on the off.....oh well - just need it beaten now :-)
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I do sometimes lay IP - if they are too big prior to off or if I havent been matched at the price i want. I know some people say they only get matched if they're going well but I have seen plenty get matched IR running like carp.
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2.06.....never worried ;-)
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hasty 27 Apr 16:00 to big for my comfort level Hasty - do you lay using level stakes mate?? |
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I,m gonna stop watching the i/r prices..too stressful :-)
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