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why brian?dont ruin it.its free and its good.thats all you need to know.
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A share price rises and falls. The winner buys low and sells high - the loser buys high and sells low. sadly, we don't know where the highs and lows are until they've already happened.
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Know what you guys mean. Thought things had bottomed out a week or two ago as there was a steady climb.
Might keep the faith with PP for another while. The corner will be turned. I know the laying price is key too to the profit/loss figure. |
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kavvie -----not been a spoilsport but this is a must --MASSIVELY IMPORTANT
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IVOR -are you referring to REGRESSION TO THE MEAN ?
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brian he doesnt have to explain himself as he owes us nothing.he explained previously that there is no set pattern to his lay prices.some shorten some drift.its not scientific.he lays to a set loss at the time he does .as i do.in fact a surprising amount of the ones that win are drifters.when ur laying a good number most days its hard to set a specific price to lay them all at.he uses whatever criteria he uses and puts them up here.when i see them i lay each one to a fixed loss.if they are short ill win more.if they are long ill win less.i hope you understand what im saying.and its working for me so im happy!
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you've all given him the hump now
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you've all given him the hump now
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what date he have the 2k loss
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the thread is information. Not a database of gains and losses.
Look at it as a "long list". From there, look at those races objectively. Can you find two or three that you think will beat that horse? Is it value? If yes, go for it. If no, move to the next. I recently was part of a research of 60 people on baseball betting. At the time, someone set up a survey system that we each picked 2 games by 11AM EST stressing that we had to way out value. An hour later, we got an email with two selections but did not know the criteria. It worked well with small, steady gains. At the end of June, we were told that the emails had actually sent us either the 2nd and 3rd highest ranked picks if less than nine games and when there were nine or more games, the 3rd and 4th. It also showed if it had simply selected the 1st and 2nd, the strike-rate was almost the same but made less because of value. Take information for what it is but use it in a way that is appropriate for you. And value; if you think the value on a lay is 3/1 and the price is higher, simply put a keep at 3/1 or less. If it gets matched in-running, you got your value, win or lose. If not, there is always another race. There are no "click and win plays" on betfair. |
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Ah well, back to laying Alan Keyte!
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Evening
In responce to Sligo etc. My selections have been having a bad run of things lately and including the £2k loss which was my fault really made a dent in the figures, bringing the £16k bank down to £10k. But now the bank is back up around the £15k mark. The bank has remained at the same level for around 2 months which I know is not ideal but when laying thats how things go. There are a lot of ups and downs. If you had joined at the worst point recently you could have lost over 40% of your bank in a matter of a few days/week - this would put most people off. Laying is a long grind and a lot of patience is needed. There are no get rich quick schemes! I will continue to post regardless and I WILL turn the corner. Regards Steve |
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No offence meant on my part Steve. Anyone who puts their picks up regularly on here deserves credit.
Your figures over the piece speak for themselves and I have agreed all along laying is a long term project and you are ahead of the curve so well done and continued good luck. You pays your money and you take your chances - thats the name of the game. We are all aware of the risks. I missed a good period when on hols and caught a sticky one on return. Look forward to seeing your selections tomorrow and going forward. |
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Come on lads lets not be so sensitive! As long as the comments arent abusive whats wrong with a few differing views - a bit of banter is half the point of these threads. Its almost as if you are scared that Steve will run away just because someone questions him. I am sure he is not that fickle. And its just possible some of the suggestions might help him.
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The system has made good money a lot better than many stocks, trusta etc.
Its not about coming in and betting for a few months expecting miracles, its a growth through time and should be treated a such. same as stock market and property. Dont bet too much too soon |
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Hi Steve, glad you're going to continue mate. When are you thinking of restarting your selections?
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Morning Lads and Lass',
Haven't been away intentionally - actually had a fire in my kitchen last week! Bloody oven caught on fire and my whole house filled up with horrible accrid smoke - if anyone has experienced this you will know what a nighmare it is to get rid of the stench! Thank Goodness I was in the house alone and my Mrs. and little girl were out as the smoke must have knocked me out as I awoke to the Mrs. kicking the door trying to wake me up! I couldn't even see how to get out of the house and it was honestly one of the scariest things that's happened to me in my life. She told me afterwards that she could see smoke billowing out of our living room window while walking home. Mrs. and I have had to wash the whole house interior,curtains, carpets and bedding etc and you can still smell smoke. Absolute Nightmare. Anyway, I will update the thread today and get the wheels oiled and rolling again. Regards Steve |
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Sorry to hear that. Glad you're all OK.
I'm new to this thread, but thought I might follow your lays for a few quid :) |
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Thanks - Follow at your peril :-)
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No worries. I never bet money I can't afford to lose.
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Sorry to hear about that, Steve - must have been very scary!
A few bets on the horses seem pretty trivial when something like that happens. I hope you are OK apart from the damage to the house. |
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glad your back i live in the midlands if you need any help let me knowl
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Should be a book ''Betfair Real Lives''. PP is now a battered husband :(
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Day 105
Friday 31st July 2009 Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank: £13,748.67 Bank High: £16,460.78 Today's Stakes Remain Unchanged: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30 Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84 Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38 Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92 Todays Selections: Goodwood: 2.10 Drun Fire 6.2 £115.22 4/1 L ;-) 2.45 Harrison Gearge 8.2 £82.30 6/1f L ;-) 5.10 Cosmopolitan 11.0 £32.92 9/1 L ;-) Bangor: 3.05 Hareem 6.0 £115.22 7/2 L ;-) 4.15 Don Castile ***NR*** 5.25 Deadline 7.0 £98.76 5/1 W :-( (-£592.56) 6.00 Intense Suspense 4.4 £148.14 10/3f L ;-) Newmarket: 7.30 Esteem Machine 7.0 £98.76 6/1 W :-( (-£592.56) Haydock: 8.20 Supaverdi 4.6 £121.68 7/2 W :-( (-£438.04) Good Luck Todays Takings: £493.80 Less 5 % Comm. £469.11 Todays Losses: £1,623.16 Profit/Loss: -£1,154.05 Bank: £13,748.67 Level Stakes: Todays P + L -10.60Points Total P + L +176.85 Points Todays Strike Rate 62.5% Total Strike Rate 87.19% Wins 627 - 721 Bets |
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Day 106
Saturday 1st August 2009 Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank:£14,065.62 Bank High: £16,460.78 Today's Stakes Remain Unchanged: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30 Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84 Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38 Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92 Todays Selections: Goodwood: 1.55 Becausewecan 6.4 £115.22 9/2f L ;-) 3.40 Markab 9.4 £65.84 8/1f L ;-) 5.25 Road To Love ***NR*** Doncaster: 3.15 Zidane 7.6 £82.30 15/2 W :-( (-£543.18) 3.50 Safari Sunup 8.0 £82.30 6/1 L ;-) Newmarket: 5.40 Incendo 4.3 £148.14 3/1jf L ;-) Thirsk: 2.55 Kalasan 10.5 £49.38 8/1 L ;-) 4.40 Jackday 6.4 £115.22 5/1 L ;-) Hamilton: 7.40 Dontpaytheferryman 3.4 £164.60 2/1f L ;-) 9.10 Hippolytus 5.8 £115.22 4/1 L ;-) Lingfield: 7.25 Vanadium 9.8 £49.38 (op 8) 12/1 L ;-) Good Luck Todays Takings: £905.30 Less 5 % Comm. £860.03 Todays Losses: £543.18 Profit/Loss: £316.85 :-) Bank:£14,065.62 Level Stakes: Todays P + L+1.95 Points Total P + L +178.80 Points Todays Strike Rate 90% Total Strike Rate 87.19% Wins 636 - 731 Bets |
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Day 107
Monday 3rd August 2009 Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank:£13,523.67 Bank High: £16,460.78 Today's Stakes Remain Unchanged: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30 Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84 Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38 Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92 Todays Selections: Ripon: 3.15 Moheebb 6.6 £98.76 7/1 W :-( (-£553.05) 3.45 Red Cape 5.2 £121.68 7/2f W :-( (-£511.05) 5.15 Go Go Green 6.4 £115.22 5/1 L ;-) Carlisle: 5.45 Carpe Diem 7.2 £98.76 6/1 L ;-) 7.15 Fathey 6.0 £115.22 4/1 L ;-) 8.15 Cheers For Thea 5.4 £121.68 4/1jf L ;-) 8.45 Bold Bomber 7.4 £98.76 6/1 L ;-) Good Luck Todays Takings: £549.64 Less 5 % Comm. £522.15 Todays Losses: £1,064.10 Profit/Loss: £541.92 Bank:£13,523.67 Level Stakes: Todays P + L -5.05 Points Total P + L +173.75 Points Todays Strike Rate 71.42% Total Strike Rate 87.19% Wins 641 - 738 Bets |
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Day 108
Tuesday 4th August 2009 Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank:£13,226.98 Bank High: £16,460.78 Today's Stakes Remain Unchanged: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30 Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84 Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38 Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92 Todays Selections: Chepstow: 2.10 Pico De Say 6.6 £98.76 11/2 W :-( (-£553.05) 5.40 Harrison Flyer ***ABANDONED*** Catterick: 4.20 High Curragh 4.3 £148.14 3/1 L ;-) Newton Abbot: 3.30 Nudge And Nurdle 5.2 £121.68 7/2 L ;-) Good Luck Todays Takings: £269.81 Less 5 % Comm. £256.31 Todays Losses: £553.05 Profit/Loss: £296.68 Bank:£13,226.98 Level Stakes: Todays P + L -3.70 Points Total P + L +170.05 Points Todays Strike Rate 66.66 % Total Strike Rate 87.19% Wins 643 - 741 Bets |
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Day 109
Wednesday 5th August 2009 Starting Bank: £5,000 Bank:£12,861.74 Bank High: £16,460.78 Today's Stakes Remain Unchanged: Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60 Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14 Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68 Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22 Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76 Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30 Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84 Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38 Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92 Todays Selections: Pontefract: 3.40 High Ambition 4.6 £121.68 10/3 W :-( (-£438.04) 4.40 Paraguay 8.2 £82.30 13/2 L ;-) 5.10 Northern Flyer 5.2 £121.68 7/2jf L ;-) Brighton: 3.30 Art Value 7.0 £98.76 6/1 L ;-) 4.00 Burns Night 8.2 £82.30 13/2 L ;-) 5.00 Short Cut 8.4 £82.3 15/2 L ;-) Kempton: 6.05 King Supreme 9.4 £65.84 10/1 L ;-) 6.35 The Grey One 11.5 £32.92 10/1 L ;-) Yarmouth: 5.50 Takaamul 7.6 £82.30 5/1 W :-( (-£543.18) 6.50 Sotik Star 8.2 £82.30 9/1 L ;-) Good Luck Todays Takings: £648.40 Less 5 % Comm. £615.98 Todays Losses: £981.22 Profit/Loss: £365.24 Bank:£12,861.74 Level Stakes: Todays P + L - 2.60 Points Total P + L +167.45 Points Todays Strike Rate 80% Total Strike Rate 87.19% Wins 651 - 751 Bets |
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gleeman 10 Aug 13:14 Sorry to hear about that, Steve - must have been very scary! A few bets on the horses seem pretty trivial when something like that happens. I hope you are OK apart from the damage to the house. Hi Gleeman - It certainly was and it certainly does....seem trivial I mean. Yep, apart from my bank balance from all the blinkin winning/losing lays!! geordiemidland 10 Aug 14:28 glad your back i live in the midlands if you need any help let me knowl Geordiemidland - Cheers mate, Very kind of you :-) Ivor 10 Aug 15:00 Should be a book ''Betfair Real Lives''. PP is now a battered husband :( There's always one ^ :-) True though - She would rather have been kicking my head than the front door - obv. it happened when I was "Home Alone" ;-) |
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are we betting today steve?
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:D
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Hi Steve, haven't had a look at the thread for a while. Sorry to hear about the fire - it's just as well your Mrs came along when she did!
Looking forward to laying your selections again mate :) |
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been away for a few days camping in rainy Cornwall, sorry to hear about the fire, relieved that no-one harmed, puts it all in perspective dont it.
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any today mate
:p |
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He's disappeared again :(
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Afternoon
Sorry - haven't disappeared, just been sorting the house and haven't even "fired up" the pc in 2 days. Will be posting as of tomorrow. Hope everyone's doing ok. Regards steve |
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sanddancer 12 Aug 14:28 Hi Steve, haven't had a look at the thread for a while. Sorry to hear about the fire - it's just as well your Mrs came along when she did! Looking forward to laying your selections again mate :) Hi Mate Cheers bud - very lucky! Will be back on track tomorrow mate :-) supersavo 12 Aug 14:34 been away for a few days camping in rainy Cornwall, sorry to hear about the fire, relieved that no-one harmed, puts it all in perspective dont it. Hello Mate - Weather's been 'orrible hasn't it! Certainly does put it in to perspective Cheers Mate Glasgow Brian 13 Aug 11:40 any today mate :p Hi Brian - hope things are ok with you mate - as I said I will be back up posting tomorrow. Regards Steve treble0 13 Aug 17:25 He's disappeared again :( :-) |
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good mate
one of the better threads on here mate keep it goin :P |
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:p
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any action today steve??
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