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what?
explain the theory and maths behind this please... |
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Hope to god you are having a larf...if not i fear for you!
Betfair is not the place for you, save yourself the money you WILL lose. |
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365 lays in a year at 200 is 73,000 turnover in the year. If you give back 65,000 in winning lays you are doing well but have only made 8000 on the year which averages at 22 pound a day.
or maybe he is getting 100 per cent strike rate with his lays? |
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lol - you don't get this do you?
:^0 |
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no faceman, can you explain the system please
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koo
As a big player, and someone who betfair needs to listen to, perhaps you could let us know how you feel about this cross-matching software which is enabling betfair to skim the in-play markets. Whilst it has not been introduced on horse racing initially it could be just a matter of time. |
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Id be very suprised if they did it on the horses, we'd simply destroy the bot when there was a late n/r and the bot couldnt cope with the overound
I look forward to anyraces with late non runners, and the bot cross matching on something not runing and laying our other overround bets. Half the time there arent any bets as well on the lay side thus the book hasnt even a % for the lay side IR. Id be very suprised if it was used IR on the jumps. Would the 1 sec delay to the 5 make a big difference as well ?? I arent totally up to speed with everything going on woth this in the other sports |
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I agree with Koo. A few years ago on the Usa racing, we used to find out about the non runners before betfair did, and it was great fun manipulating the very weak markets to fool the bots. Sometimes we would catch them out when the book seemed to be about 94%. There were always people coming on the Usa forum saying that it wasnt fair and that the people doing it were no more than criminals, but that made it even more fun!
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koo
thank you for your reply. you may be right about the technology at present but this may not necessarily be the case in future and there appear to be huge overrounds towards the end of races. in my view what they are doing is the thin end of the wedge. |
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sweep moggy...turnover is not profit
hope this helps ;) |
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this has to be treated as a job...it isnt wot you win today ,2morra etc..its the weeks/mths/yrs ahead..
dicipline is the key..if you aint got non...you will go skint. |
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naiad de misolo last matched 1.3, kicks for free last matched 1.5
huge margin available for the betfair bot if they let in loose in horse-racing. |
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HOWS THE DAY GOIN KOO
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Up and won.................was winning nicely until i laid the last winner at Leafy. Always had it down as a dog and also thought the 2nd was a good thing today on its last run.
Saw someone asking for a lump at 1.7 on it turning ion so thought f-it i'll go for it. Had a day like that today where ive gone for a few. So cant complain being about level. One i fancy taking on here is the fav. Henderson said he thinks shes a fast ground hoss and i dont thikn its that fast and to be 5.7 to win an untra competive handicap seems awful short Are they thinking ploit hoss due to the raace bearing his dads name ??? Not for me and if this wins then im doen for the day |
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4.8 now koo
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well done
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bailed out IR and only made 100 1uid instead of the full bank lay i did
Did the right thing though i think..... one bad mistake at the last and im a bank down :( |
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Was that your 16.5 about psycho after 1 hurdle Koo?
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no shaun, couldnt be me since i only keep 10k in now ;) 3k at 16.5 is too much. Have done iot before though. But today prefered backing the winner at 120's ;)
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I thought it couldn't be yours under your stringent new regime ;) But then I wondered if you'd built up your bank over the course of the afternoon
One of the strangest things I've seen though, Carberry got him switched off and covered pretty well considering the horse is a lunatic. Certainly gave some leeway for trading there :) |
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the comm said he had pulled hard going down and then he started pulling for a bit IR. So i could understand a bold stance.
Someone chasing probably and wanting to be matched |
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Ok then, fairly sure i can write the p/l as i dont fancy playing the night cards.
Well it was a rollercvoaster of a day which is fitting for Cheltenham being the goliath it is punting wise. Was an ordinary day but got the leafy race wrong in terms of staking. OK i think the horse is a dog but to lose 6k on it is fat too straong even when winning. Was a pleaswing way to strike back playing normally, and the big win in the county hurdle was thanks to backing the winner at 120's nothing chasing wise. Just had a hunch the price was far too big for a horse with proven form in big races. Horse Racing: GBP15,315.67 Total P&L: GBP15,315.67 Horse Racing Showing 1 - 20 of 21 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss () Horse Racing / Ling 14th Mar : 1m2f Hcap 14-Mar-08 17:40 14-Mar-08 17:44 4.35 Horse Racing / Fake 14th Mar : 2m Mdn Hrd 14-Mar-08 17:30 14-Mar-08 17:44 449.08 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m1f Hcap Hrd 14-Mar-08 17:20 14-Mar-08 17:28 12,611.88 Horse Racing / Ling 14th Mar : 6f Hcap 14-Mar-08 17:10 14-Mar-08 17:14 615.56 Horse Racing / Fake 14th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 14-Mar-08 16:55 14-Mar-08 17:04 2,359.26 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m Hcap Chs 14-Mar-08 16:40 14-Mar-08 16:51 119.12 Horse Racing / Ling 14th Mar : 1m5f Hcap 14-Mar-08 16:25 14-Mar-08 16:30 -6,340.45 Horse Racing / Fake 14th Mar : 2m5f Hunt Chs 14-Mar-08 16:15 14-Mar-08 16:25 178.74 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 3m2f Hunt Chs 14-Mar-08 16:05 14-Mar-08 16:20 683.84 Horse Racing / Fake 14th Mar : 2m5f Hcap Chs 14-Mar-08 15:45 14-Mar-08 15:52 1,830.60 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 3m2f Grd1 Chs 14-Mar-08 15:30 14-Mar-08 15:41 -821.75 Horse Racing / Ling 14th Mar : 6f Sell Stks 14-Mar-08 15:15 14-Mar-08 15:22 381.34 Horse Racing / Fake 14th Mar : 2m Hcap Hrd 14-Mar-08 15:05 14-Mar-08 15:10 -268.21 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 3m Nov Hrd 14-Mar-08 14:50 14-Mar-08 14:58 -2,863.33 Horse Racing / Ling 14th Mar : 5f Hcap 14-Mar-08 14:35 14-Mar-08 14:39 8,368.43 Horse Racing / Fake 14th Mar : 3m Beg Chs 14-Mar-08 14:25 14-Mar-08 14:33 -1,594.98 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m1f Grd1 Hrd 14-Mar-08 14:15 14-Mar-08 14:23 -2,090.78 Horse Racing / Ling 14th Mar : 5f Hcap 14-Mar-08 14:00 14-Mar-08 14:03 470.57 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 14-Mar-08 13:40 14-Mar-08 13:50 -1,605.58 Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m4f Nov Hrd 14-Mar-08 13:05 14-Mar-08 13:14 710.81 Horse Racing Showing 21 - 21 of 21 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss () Horse Racing / Chelt 14th Mar : 2m4f Grd2 Hrd 14-Mar-08 12:30 14-Mar-08 12:41 2,117.17 Got our lass here now lauging at me write this down. So i best get on with making some gravy for the tea. Hope u all had a good week at Cheltenham and that those with bad discipline like me can sort of nip it in the bud like im trying to achieve here. |
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Total from 7th March = Horse Racing: GBP46,718.49 Total P&L: GBP46,718.49
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wd koo, a great week :-)
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well done koo. the discipline seems good for you.
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well played koo ;)
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keep it going koo
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The pleasing thing is now, if i keep to the 10k stop loss on any given day. Ive now won 4 banks. This seems a more sustainable way of betting.
Anyone with any struggles with the discipline , try something similar. It might just work. The deposit limit is key to me still and hopefully always will be |
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cheers for the wd lads :)
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Koo is your strategy to lay in running when you see a horse just starting to struggle or do you lay just after the off based on knowledge or rememberimng how it ran last time.also is there a price you dont lay over.
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chagoo, reading between the lines i think he does a bit of everytihng backing laying IR trading etc
having the SIS pics obviously helps with the IR |
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Great stuff .. but what's your Total bank koo ?
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ok an easyquestion,do you have an averagre price you lay ir or will you take any price on.do you have your software "if you use any" set so you cant lay over a certain price.good luck today koo
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mc moonbeam - not saying but the bank was 6 figures before this comeback......all generated from Betfair
chagoo - basically i'll lay anything at under its true odds. Hence getting vale lays as often as possible. I do back alot as well. hence the 120 winner yesterday and managed to back it again at 85's at halfway. I'll lay after they look to be struggling, but too be hionest thats not the best tactic as you can chase the price out too high trying to balance getting value and getting matched. The best lays are the ones i leave in the system that i thikn are sill odds. Then hope people panic and back it. Laid one in Ireland at the start of this thread under 3/1 ( BF SP 10+) when it had gone off far too fast and hence imo it should have been bigger than SP. However just because it was in front people panic and back it at low prices. therefore im laying imo a 25/1 shot at 3/1 If you cvan do that often enough you cant lose. The key is knowing which ones are value to lay and which arent, as theres nothing better i like to back than a front runner as well. As in same principle backing a easy leader at SP will reap rewards long term. Any betting lomng term requires you to get vlaue on the vast majority of bets, whether pre race , IR or thieving at the end of races. The hard part is knowing how best you can use your talents to achieve this regulary. |
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the software thing - I use gruss software. Basically as my internet was playing up and it gives a more stable performance.
Then when the site changed i try it again but gruss is just more reliable to get bets on at a decent speed. No upper limt to my odds as i am constantly changing them manually through the race. I'd lay a 10 at a 1000 if value and try to lay quite a few at 1.1 and less if needed. |
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koo
To most people on here 10k is more than they have ever staked on a day, yet you are limiting yourself to this sum to keep your discipline. This is a fascinating thread. Keep on winning and posting. And keep on withdrawing so that it does not go t1ts up |
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thanks for the reply koo,so you are saying if you can lay a horse under its sp then then thats value.if the horses sp was 5s and you think it should be at least 7 then you try and lay at 3s and this is where the value is obtained.this is where your knowledge of racing comes in before a race does it.looking at the feild and finding selections that have less chance than thier priice is saying.guess this comes with time and expereince.soz for all the questiions but am trying to get as much info out of you guys as poss to help in my trading.thanks
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Ok no worries Koo .. gathered it was 6 figures anyway
I just wondered what kind of % an average days play (say 10k) was to you .. at a guess around 5% |
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You on msn koo would like a bit of advice from you if poss.mine is trader44@**.co.uk.if not no priobs.
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h.o.t.m.a.i.l. maybe this will print
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