General Betting
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Slowly wins the Race..... Bank £1000
Starting stakes £100
Following a loser, Stakes increased to recover initial stake loss.
EG
Horse A £100 @ 4/5 Loses -£100
Horse B £135 @ 4/5 Loses -£100(£235)
Horse C £265 @ 4/5 Loses -£265(£500)
Loss £500 accepted and written off.
No chasing following this losing spell.
Bank can withstand 2 losing spells as above to start with.
If bank increases & can withstand 3 Losing spells as above then stakes increase by 10%
Each time the bank increases to withstand another 3 loser spell stakes increase by 10%
Most Selections will probably be odds on but rarely less than 1.5(1/2).
Nothing new in the thread regarding selecting winners,
but simple discipline will hopefully win out.
Feel confident I can select enough winners to win overall.(Famous last words)
Target
Not to lose bank.
Increase the bank enough to withstand an extra losing spell each month.
Todays Selection:
Plumpton 14.20 Action Impact.
Back £100 @ 1.88 Matched
Fingers crossed for a good start.
Starting stakes £100
Following a loser, Stakes increased to recover initial stake loss.
EG
Horse A £100 @ 4/5 Loses -£100
Horse B £135 @ 4/5 Loses -£100(£235)
Horse C £265 @ 4/5 Loses -£265(£500)
Loss £500 accepted and written off.
No chasing following this losing spell.
Bank can withstand 2 losing spells as above to start with.
If bank increases & can withstand 3 Losing spells as above then stakes increase by 10%
Each time the bank increases to withstand another 3 loser spell stakes increase by 10%
Most Selections will probably be odds on but rarely less than 1.5(1/2).
Nothing new in the thread regarding selecting winners,
but simple discipline will hopefully win out.
Feel confident I can select enough winners to win overall.(Famous last words)
Target
Not to lose bank.
Increase the bank enough to withstand an extra losing spell each month.
Todays Selection:
Plumpton 14.20 Action Impact.
Back £100 @ 1.88 Matched
Fingers crossed for a good start.
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Replies: 90
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what happened to "bunus" ? :-(
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HEAVY going .....and there are five 5 yods , with some of them lightly raced against it plus a few 6 yods that have some breeding that indicates they might take to going.........Is the ODDS on bet attractive in such circumstances?
Looks an open race.......GL with bet ....hope it wins as I have layed PANDA BEAR!!!! |
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discipline is the holy gril and virtually impossible over a long period,i refuse to believe anyone can stay disciplined day in day out for a month
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pandora u believe wrong
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Discipline is the easy part.
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pandora1963 01 Mar 14:04
discipline is the holy gril and virtually impossible over a long period,i refuse to believe anyone can stay disciplined day in day out for a month don't be silly |
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A month is fairly easy and if you have an edge, and understand it, longer term is easy. I must admit, in the past when i've had an edge, and that edge has gone, i've perservered with it longer than is feasible. Most peoples idea of lacking discipline is, from what i've seen and read on here, is have a few losers then lump the remainder of their account on the next short price that they think will win! That is compulsive betting and having an ego that can't accept being incorrect is part and parcel of the game.
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having an ego that can't accept being incorrect is part and parcel of the game.
an excellent point buzzer, so many fail to realize that it's their ego that is the problem |
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End of Day 1
Todays Selection 14.20 Plumpton Action Impact Winner Industry S/P 4/5 Betfair S/P 1.80 Price Matched 1.88 Opening Balance £1000.00 Todays Profit £83.70 After Commission Closing Balance £1083.70 Running Profit £83.70 After Commission Selections 1 Winners 1 Losers 0 100% Current Sequence 1 winner Longest Winning Sequence 1 winner Longest Losing sequence N/A |
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Day 2
Tuesday 02/03/10 Selection 15.50 Leicester Blazing Bailey £100 @ 1.87 Matched |
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well done mate
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good luck with this one mate
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The word 'sequence' will send a shiver down any pro gamblers spine
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Good luck and well done with getting your first bet up. Maybe the disciplined approach could extend to waiting for a full show or a 100% book before taking a price, rather than 104% in a 4runner race
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I dont usually contribute to these threads but I'm going to put in my t**ence worth here having now read your staking plan which is doomed to failure.
Presumably you are using a recovery method because you find it painful to accept 1 or 2 losses in a row. Yet this method asks you to then cheerfully accept 3 losses, then set about getting 7 straight wins before recovering your loss. Thats really too much to ask of anyone. On the selection method, its comforting to back short price horses and if you want to do that for fun and accept the loss of your commission then thats fine. The only way it can be done profitably is if you are genuinely identifying a strong selection against a market rival with genuine weaknesses. Is that what you're doing? The only other way forward for profit is if the market genuinely gets the price wrong for your horse, and that usually only becomes significant in the last 5 minutes of trading. You dont owe anything to anyone here by carrying on in the way you've set about above so am suggesting you reconsider. Good luck whichever |
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Agree with above. . .
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Starfish.
You are probably right regarding myself and finding it tough to accept a loss.The recovery plan gives me an option after the loss rather than going with Buzzers Quote" of lumping the whole bank on some hot pot " I am not perfect in this respect and have had my failings, This way gives me a couple of days to think about whats happening and not to lose control. I will get it wrong from time to time and will most likely get it right also.But am trying to think over the long term. See how I get on in march,May be bust by the end,May have a little profit. Fingers crossed. Thanks to all for their input. |
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well done beatrice keep it up!!
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End of Day 2
Todays Selection 15.50 Leicester Blazing Bailey Winner [b]Industry S/P 5/6 Betfair S/P 1.93 Price Matched 1.87[/b] Opening Balance £1000.00 Todays Profit £83.53 After Commission Closing Balance £1167.23 Running Profit £167.23 After Commission Selections 2 Winners 2 Losers 0 100% Current Sequence 2 winners Longest Winning Sequence 2 winners Longest Losing sequence N/A |
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Thanks disco Denis
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Good luck with this one.
In my own opinion the worrying think with this idea is the short nature of the odds, and the amount of time it will therefore take to recover one losing "sequence" as you call it. Maybe you could consider looking at horses that are more around the 3.0 mark, then you could have your stakes set as below: Bet 1 : £100 Bet 2 : £150 Bet 3 : £225 That way you would make £200 profit from every winning cycle as i prefer to call them, and you will lose £475 per losing cycle. Anyway just an idea.... |
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Don't forget commission Dodgy ;)
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ah yes of course, well factoring in commision and also that some bets will be above 3.00 you will still be looking at around the £200 mark profit per winning cycle.
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Day 3
Wednesday 03/03/10 Selection: 16.15 Downpatrick Mighty Massini £100 @ 1.82 Matched |
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How did you match £100 @1.82 when at this time only £49 Traded???
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1.82 is the average odds
IRE / DownP 3rd Mar / 16:15 2m2f Nov Chs Mighty Massini Back 10245084935 02-Mar-10 19:48 1.9 33.00 1.9 02-Mar-10 20:30 IRE / DownP 3rd Mar / 16:15 2m2f Nov Chs Mighty Massini Back 10245088550 02-Mar-10 19:48 1.82 27.00 1.82 02-Mar-10 20:30 IRE / DownP 3rd Mar / 16:15 2m2f Nov Chs Mighty Massini Back 10245080415 02-Mar-10 19:47 1.75 40.00 1.75 02-Mar-10 20:29 fingers crossed |
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Seriously now : why are you taking a price at 9pm in a 134% book? You got people on your side here and i'm one but not really sure what you're trying to achieve
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Starfish...
I will be right sometimes,and hopefully more often than wrong. For me A winner is a winner. I think I understand how you play, I may be wrong,and each persons view/system/angle is respected as all will have a golden day/week/year. Now, over the long term if you can continue to select value you should do alright. If you get 33/1 about a 7/1 all is well if it wins If you get 7/1 about a 33/1 and it loses you are no worse off than the previous bet if both lose. Over time if you manage to continue selecting exceptional value you will win on average as a 7/1 will win once every 7 races(not strictly true but hope you get my drift).and if you are getting 8/1 or better happy days for you. For me I dont seem to be able to select exceptional value all the time. I am working with the tools available to me. I have tried various angles before and this is just another one. As its been said on the thread that accepting a loss can be very hard for some. For me that is very much so. I am a normal person (in most respects) and am trying to delay the tilt that comes with these. I know most of the maths experts like yourself wont agree that a 4/6 winner is better than a 8/1 second that should be 4/1. But for me i am quite happy to accept the returns of a 4/6. Regarding the overround book etc, if I back at 4/6 when the book is over, surely its not always me that is wrong. Perhaps the other horses in the race are underpriced. I will keep an eye on the returns for the moment with regard to comparing them to SP and BSP. It will make interesting reading at the end of the month (assuming I'm not bust by then) Thanks Starfish Fingers crossed. |
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Fair Doos George All The Best
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Well done
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End of Day 3
Todays Selection 16.15 DownPatrick Mighty Massini Winner Industry S/P 2.10 Betfair S/P 2.11 Price Matched 1.82 Opening Balance £1167.23 Todays Profit £78.32 After Commission Closing Balance £1245.55 Running Profit £245.55 After Commission Selections 3 Winners 3 Losers 0 100% Current Sequence 3 winners Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence N/A Cheers for all the good wishes |
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good start georgie keep it up
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Thanks very much for your reply Georgie. You're right and i disagreed very much with the suggestion that you should start trying to get 3.0 shots.
I dont think you should be looking for high odds 'value' bets and never suggested that. You seem very good in your comfort zone of oddson selections So much so that you should be fine at level stakes and SP! Please dont go trying to chase when you hit a loser, you dont need to! And dont try to get value at 9pm cos there aint none! Continued good luck and success whichever. |
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No value after 9pm ? Oh, there can be with perhaps 3 mins to play.
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Day 4
Thursday 04/03/10 Selection: 15.50 Taunton Pistolet Noir [b]£100 @ 1.55 with a Take Sp at the off (Not Matched at present)[/b] |
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Cheers
Starfish,Rod D |
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Day 4
Thursday 04/03/10 Selection: 15.50 Taunton Pistolet Noir £100 @ 1.55 Matched |
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WD...you waited for the price.
You can't win every time and long-term, this is the difference between winning and losing. Gl |
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Cheers Askari
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