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beatricegeorge
01 Mar 10 12:29
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 65 | Blogger: beatricegeorge's blog
Slowly wins the Race..... Bank £1000
Starting stakes £100
Following a loser, Stakes increased to recover initial stake loss.
EG
Horse A £100 @ 4/5 Loses -£100
Horse B £135 @ 4/5 Loses -£100(£235)
Horse C £265 @ 4/5 Loses -£265(£500)
Loss £500 accepted and written off.
No chasing following this losing spell.
Bank can withstand 2 losing spells as above to start with.
If bank increases & can withstand 3 Losing spells as above then stakes increase by 10%
Each time the bank increases to withstand another 3 loser spell stakes increase by 10%

Most Selections will probably be odds on but rarely less than 1.5(1/2).

Nothing new in the thread regarding selecting winners,
but simple discipline will hopefully win out.
Feel confident I can select enough winners to win overall.(Famous last words)

Target
Not to lose bank.
Increase the bank enough to withstand an extra losing spell each month.

Todays Selection:
Plumpton 14.20 Action Impact.
Back £100 @ 1.88 Matched


Fingers crossed for a good start.
Pause Switch to Standard View Long Term DISCIPLINE
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Report jamesdean March 1, 2010 12:43 PM GMT
what happened to "bunus" ? :-(
Report DFCIRONMAN March 1, 2010 12:47 PM GMT
HEAVY going .....and there are five 5 yods , with some of them lightly raced against it plus a few 6 yods that have some breeding that indicates they might take to going.........Is the ODDS on bet attractive in such circumstances?

Looks an open race.......GL with bet ....hope it wins as I have layed PANDA BEAR!!!!
Report pandora1963 March 1, 2010 1:04 PM GMT
discipline is the holy gril and virtually impossible over a long period,i refuse to believe anyone can stay disciplined day in day out for a month
Report freddiewilliams March 1, 2010 1:08 PM GMT
pandora u believe wrong
Report five leaves left March 1, 2010 1:16 PM GMT
Discipline is the easy part.
Report dlarssonf March 1, 2010 1:22 PM GMT
pandora1963 01 Mar 14:04
discipline is the holy gril and virtually impossible over a long period,i refuse to believe anyone can stay disciplined day in day out for a month


don't be silly
Report buzzer March 1, 2010 1:37 PM GMT
A month is fairly easy and if you have an edge, and understand it, longer term is easy. I must admit, in the past when i've had an edge, and that edge has gone, i've perservered with it longer than is feasible. Most peoples idea of lacking discipline is, from what i've seen and read on here, is have a few losers then lump the remainder of their account on the next short price that they think will win! That is compulsive betting and having an ego that can't accept being incorrect is part and parcel of the game.
Report dlarssonf March 1, 2010 2:05 PM GMT
having an ego that can't accept being incorrect is part and parcel of the game.

an excellent point buzzer, so many fail to realize that it's their ego that is the problem
Report beatricegeorge March 1, 2010 6:56 PM GMT
End of Day 1

Todays Selection

14.20 Plumpton

Action Impact

Winner


Industry S/P 4/5
Betfair S/P 1.80
Price Matched 1.88




Opening Balance £1000.00
Todays Profit £83.70 After Commission
Closing Balance £1083.70
Running Profit £83.70 After Commission



Selections 1

Winners 1

Losers 0

100%

Current Sequence
1 winner

Longest Winning Sequence
1 winner

Longest Losing sequence
N/A
Report beatricegeorge March 1, 2010 7:12 PM GMT
Day 2

Tuesday 02/03/10

Selection

15.50 Leicester

Blazing Bailey

£100 @ 1.87 Matched
Report dlarssonf March 1, 2010 8:39 PM GMT
well done mate
Report Beeeely March 1, 2010 10:13 PM GMT
good luck with this one mate
Report Coachbuster March 1, 2010 10:19 PM GMT
The word 'sequence' will send a shiver down any pro gamblers spine
Report starfish and coffee March 1, 2010 10:28 PM GMT
Good luck and well done with getting your first bet up. Maybe the disciplined approach could extend to waiting for a full show or a 100% book before taking a price, rather than 104% in a 4runner race
Report starfish and coffee March 2, 2010 7:07 AM GMT
I dont usually contribute to these threads but I'm going to put in my t**ence worth here having now read your staking plan which is doomed to failure.
Presumably you are using a recovery method because you find it painful to accept 1 or 2 losses in a row. Yet this method asks you to then cheerfully accept 3 losses, then set about getting 7 straight wins before recovering your loss. Thats really too much to ask of anyone.
On the selection method, its comforting to back short price horses and if you want to do that for fun and accept the loss of your commission then thats fine.
The only way it can be done profitably is if you are genuinely identifying a strong selection against a market rival with genuine weaknesses. Is that what you're doing? The only other way forward for profit is if the market genuinely gets the price wrong for your horse, and that usually only becomes significant in the last 5 minutes of trading.
You dont owe anything to anyone here by carrying on in the way you've set about above so am suggesting you reconsider. Good luck whichever
Report Bridgeboy March 2, 2010 8:14 AM GMT
Agree with above. . .
Report beatricegeorge March 2, 2010 1:02 PM GMT
Starfish.
You are probably right regarding myself and finding it tough to accept a loss.The recovery plan gives me an option after the loss rather than going with Buzzers Quote" of lumping the whole bank on some hot pot " I am not perfect in this respect and have had my failings, This way gives me a couple of days to think about whats happening and not to lose control.
I will get it wrong from time to time and will most likely get it right also.But am trying to think over the long term. See how I get on in march,May be bust by the end,May have a little profit.
Fingers crossed.

Thanks to all for their input.
Report disco dennis March 2, 2010 2:57 PM GMT
well done beatrice keep it up!!
Report beatricegeorge March 2, 2010 6:16 PM GMT
End of Day 2

Todays Selection

15.50 Leicester


Blazing Bailey

Winner


[b]Industry S/P 5/6
Betfair S/P 1.93
Price Matched 1.87[/b]



Opening Balance £1000.00
Todays Profit £83.53 After Commission
Closing Balance £1167.23
Running Profit £167.23 After Commission



Selections 2

Winners 2

Losers 0


100%

Current Sequence
2 winners


Longest Winning Sequence
2 winners

Longest Losing sequence
N/A
Report beatricegeorge March 2, 2010 6:17 PM GMT
Thanks disco Denis
Report DodgyDog1985 March 2, 2010 6:26 PM GMT
Good luck with this one.

In my own opinion the worrying think with this idea is the short nature of the odds, and the amount of time it will therefore take to recover one losing "sequence" as you call it.

Maybe you could consider looking at horses that are more around the 3.0 mark, then you could have your stakes set as below:

Bet 1 : £100
Bet 2 : £150
Bet 3 : £225

That way you would make £200 profit from every winning cycle as i prefer to call them, and you will lose £475 per losing cycle.

Anyway just an idea....
Report Steve Voltage March 2, 2010 7:01 PM GMT
Don't forget commission Dodgy ;)
Report DodgyDog1985 March 2, 2010 7:13 PM GMT
ah yes of course, well factoring in commision and also that some bets will be above 3.00 you will still be looking at around the £200 mark profit per winning cycle.
Report beatricegeorge March 2, 2010 8:04 PM GMT
Day 3

Wednesday 03/03/10

Selection:

16.15 Downpatrick

Mighty Massini

£100 @ 1.82 Matched
Report Mr Layer March 2, 2010 8:50 PM GMT
How did you match £100 @1.82 when at this time only £49 Traded???
Report beatricegeorge March 3, 2010 7:47 AM GMT
1.82 is the average odds

IRE / DownP 3rd Mar / 16:15 2m2f Nov Chs Mighty Massini Back 10245084935 02-Mar-10
19:48 1.9 33.00 1.9 02-Mar-10 20:30

IRE / DownP 3rd Mar / 16:15 2m2f Nov Chs Mighty Massini Back 10245088550 02-Mar-10
19:48 1.82 27.00 1.82 02-Mar-10 20:30

IRE / DownP 3rd Mar / 16:15 2m2f Nov Chs Mighty Massini Back 10245080415 02-Mar-10
19:47 1.75 40.00 1.75 02-Mar-10 20:29

fingers crossed
Report starfish and coffee March 3, 2010 9:22 AM GMT
Seriously now : why are you taking a price at 9pm in a 134% book? You got people on your side here and i'm one but not really sure what you're trying to achieve
Report beatricegeorge March 3, 2010 12:07 PM GMT
Starfish...

I will be right sometimes,and hopefully more often than wrong.
For me A winner is a winner.
I think I understand how you play, I may be wrong,and each persons view/system/angle is respected as all will have a golden day/week/year.
Now, over the long term if you can continue to select value you should do alright.
If you get 33/1 about a 7/1 all is well if it wins
If you get 7/1 about a 33/1 and it loses you are no worse off than the previous bet if both lose.
Over time if you manage to continue selecting exceptional value you will win on average as a 7/1 will win once every 7 races(not strictly true but hope you get my drift).and if you are getting 8/1 or better happy days for you.
For me I dont seem to be able to select exceptional value all the time.
I am working with the tools available to me.
I have tried various angles before and this is just another one.
As its been said on the thread that accepting a loss can be very hard for some.
For me that is very much so.
I am a normal person (in most respects) and am trying to delay the tilt that comes with these.
I know most of the maths experts like yourself wont agree that a 4/6 winner is better than a 8/1 second that should be 4/1. But for me i am quite happy to accept the returns of a 4/6.

Regarding the overround book etc, if I back at 4/6 when the book is over, surely its not always me that is wrong. Perhaps the other horses in the race are underpriced.
I will keep an eye on the returns for the moment with regard to comparing them to SP and BSP.
It will make interesting reading at the end of the month (assuming I'm not bust by then)

Thanks Starfish

Fingers crossed.
Report sevey March 3, 2010 12:26 PM GMT
Fair Doos George All The Best
Report Pinza March 3, 2010 3:27 PM GMT
Well done
Report beatricegeorge March 3, 2010 4:25 PM GMT
End of Day 3

Todays Selection

16.15 DownPatrick

Mighty Massini


Winner

Industry S/P 2.10
Betfair S/P 2.11
Price Matched 1.82



Opening Balance £1167.23

Todays Profit £78.32 After Commission
Closing Balance £1245.55
Running Profit £245.55 After Commission


Selections 3

Winners 3

Losers 0

100%

Current Sequence
3 winners
Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
N/A

Cheers for all the good wishes
Report ROB_D March 3, 2010 5:09 PM GMT
good start georgie keep it up
Report starfish and coffee March 3, 2010 5:52 PM GMT
Thanks very much for your reply Georgie. You're right and i disagreed very much with the suggestion that you should start trying to get 3.0 shots.
I dont think you should be looking for high odds 'value' bets and never suggested that. You seem very good in your comfort zone of oddson selections
So much so that you should be fine at level stakes and SP! Please dont go trying to chase when you hit a loser, you dont need to! And dont try to get value at 9pm cos there aint none! Continued good luck and success whichever.
Report kenilworth March 3, 2010 8:52 PM GMT
No value after 9pm ? Oh, there can be with perhaps 3 mins to play.
Report beatricegeorge March 4, 2010 12:04 PM GMT
Day 4

Thursday 04/03/10

Selection:

15.50
Taunton


Pistolet Noir

[b]£100 @ 1.55 with a Take Sp at the off (Not Matched at present)[/b]
Report beatricegeorge March 4, 2010 12:05 PM GMT
Cheers
Starfish,Rod D
Report beatricegeorge March 4, 2010 2:48 PM GMT
Day 4

Thursday 04/03/10

Selection:

15.50
Taunton

Pistolet Noir

£100 @ 1.55 Matched
Report askari1 March 4, 2010 2:52 PM GMT
WD...you waited for the price.

You can't win every time and long-term, this is the difference between winning and losing.

Gl
Report beatricegeorge March 4, 2010 3:03 PM GMT
Cheers Askari
Report beatricegeorge March 4, 2010 3:07 PM GMT
End of Day 4

Todays Selection

15.50 Taunton

Pistolet Noir

Loser

Industry S/P 1.53
Betfair S/P 1.58
Price Matched 1.55



Opening Balance £1245.55
Todays Loss £100.00
Closing Balance £1145.55.
Running Profit £145.55 After Commission



Selections 4

Winners 3

Losers 1

75%

Current Sequence
1 Loser

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
1 Loser


Cheers
Report Pinza March 5, 2010 9:30 AM GMT
I prefer not to back at odds on.
If there is an odds on fancy then sometimes ask for odds against price in running under "keep" bets.

I watched Massinis race - only out of interest as you selected it.
I certainly traded at 2.26 because I backed in running at that price, but may have gone higher.

If the bet doesn't get taken then you don't lose.
In most NH races you will get evens or more about an odds on chance.
Report beatricegeorge March 5, 2010 12:00 PM GMT
Day 5

Todays Selection

15.10 Doncaster

Alegralil

£135 @ 1.89 Matched


again probably a little too early with the price starfish,Still trial and error.

Fingers Crossed

Pinza
If you dont get matched you dont lose but dont win either
If the horse loses you will be matche at that price.
The first selection action impact was matched @10 in running
so it can work in your favour.
I can only imagine getting matched @ 10 about an odds on
is when the fast pic boys reckon something is not right a few seconds
before the backer sees it.Whatever it is they expected doesnt transpire
and happy days for ther backer.Dont know if I could handle betting that way.

Cheers Pinza
Report kenilworth March 5, 2010 4:12 PM GMT
beatricegeorge, do me a favour, stop saying ''fingers crossed''
Report beatricegeorge March 5, 2010 9:55 PM GMT
End of Day 5

Todays Selection

15.10
Doncaster

Alelgrelel

Loser

Industry S/P 1.83
Betfair S/P 1.94
Price Matched 1.89



Opening Balance £1145.55
Todays Loss £135.00
Closing Balance £1010.55
Running Profit £10.55 After Commission


Selections 5

Winners 3

Losers 2

60%

Current Sequence
2 Losers

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
2 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 5, 2010 9:57 PM GMT
Day 6

Saturday

06/03/10

Selection:



14.10 Gowran Park

Better Times

£300 @ various(around 11/10) with a take SP @ the Off
Part Matched at present

Will Post Matched Bet tomorrow
Report Real Deal March 5, 2010 10:15 PM GMT
Sorry B,but why the £300-00 stake.
Report starfish and coffee March 6, 2010 7:28 AM GMT
(You knew this was coming..)
There was a poster on this forum this year who showed its possible to make decent profits from odds-on shots at level stakes.
He who shall not be named turned out to have as much self-respect as a bowl of jelly, but he was a master of using a well-worn cliche to reinforce the need for discipline and self-preservation.
Two of them were 'don't be afraid to take a loss' and 'dont cut off your nose to spite your face.
Really want to see this thread in April and at this rate it simply will not regardless of this one result. Betting 300% more on a horse with a 10% less chance : does that sound right? Remember the title of this thread! Please get out of the balance of your bet!
good luck with Better Times
Report beatricegeorge March 6, 2010 1:02 PM GMT
Real Deal

I am posting this prior to the race, and my view was (Very wrong now) the selection would be more
likely to go off @1.80 than what it will. hence the £300 stake was to recover the £235 loss. Too busy this morning to monitor the market.

Starfish.
I am only doing what I said I would, I will be wrong sometimes and looks likely today
may be one of them.
To take a loss is as honourable if not more than to hold out for a profit and suffer a loss.
But at the moment nothing has changed on my view in the race
other than the extra bit of comfort we get
when we see money coming for our selection.

Cheers lads
Report beatricegeorge March 6, 2010 1:54 PM GMT
End of Day 6

Todays Selection

14.10
Gowran Park

Better Times

Loser

Industry S/P 2.10
Betfair S/P 2.34
Price Matched 2.10




Opening Balance £1145.55
Todays Loss £300.00
Closing Balance £1010.55
Running Profit £289.45 After Commission



Selections 6

Winners 3

Losers 3

50%

Current Sequence
3Losers

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report jamesdean March 6, 2010 2:06 PM GMT
unlucky today beartrice, the running profit should in the minus though
Report beatricegeorge March 6, 2010 2:43 PM GMT
Thanks JD
End of Day 6


Todays Selection

14.10
Gowran Park
Better Times

Loser

Industry S/P 2.10
Betfair S/P 2.34
Price Matched 2.10

***Correction***

Opening Balance £1010.55
Todays Loss £300.00
Closing Balance £710.55.
Running LOSS £289.45 After Commission



Selections 6

Winners 3

Losers 3

50%

Current Sequence
3Losers

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 7, 2010 9:16 AM GMT
Day 7

Sunday

07/03/10

Selection:

14.50 Sedgefield

Double expresso

£100 @ 1.81


Matched



starfish and coffee 02 Mar 08:07

I dont usually contribute to these threads but I'm going to put in my t**ence worth here having now read your staking plan which is doomed to failure.
Presumably you are using a recovery method because you find it painful to accept 1 or 2 losses in a row. Yet this method asks you to then cheerfully accept 3 losses, then set about getting 7 straight wins before recovering your loss. Thats really too much to ask of anyone.

Spot on Starfish.
It is hard to accept the loss but long term discipine is whats needed.This morning I would love to have another go at recovery but would make the thread pointless assumimg there is any point to the thread already.Times like this I need to justify my betting.I have had 3 days(losers) in which to think about it.

Now as your friend (the Voices I think you mean who now wants money for his tips) says there is no shame in taking a loss.
My time is now and as I said on post one of the the thread now is when I take it.
Surely that is more honourable than to take it yesterday.IF I took it yesterday and the selection won,things like that can play havoc with ones mindset.The Thread rules are set for the month of March (if it lasts that long) following this I will analyse the results and see what comes up.If i see something better or clearer I will adapt the rules to suit,but at a pedestrian pace,no rushing to the quick buck,as it wont be there when you arrive.

Cheers starfish

Fingers Crossed Kenilworth
Report starfish and coffee March 7, 2010 9:40 AM GMT
Maybe the way to treat these 3 losses is they could have been your first 3 bets, in which case at level stakes you would have 700, but you have 729.
So i hope you can just carry on finding the winners again, hope it can be level stakes and betfair SP.
It takes some backbone to do what you're doing here and accepting any comeback honestly and in good faith. Thats why you've got my support and i presume some others. (I'm gonna stay off your thread for a while now!)
Report Zola's Back Heel March 7, 2010 1:40 PM GMT
Do you have answers to these questions:

How many bets to you expect to make in your lifetime?
You can't expect to win every bet can you?
So how many do you think you are going to get wrong in your lifetime?
What makes you think they won't occasionally come in clusters of losing days after losing days?

If you and (more importantly) your staking system cannot handle a decent losing run. You are doomed to fail.
Report Real Deal March 7, 2010 2:14 PM GMT
Well done Beatrice,was getting slightly concerned for you.But hey your back in the winners enclosure & you beat the price as well. I'm really rooting for you,but like others,Do worry about the task you have set yourself.Your going to be some good tipster to crack this one.
But everyone loves a trier.
Report beatricegeorge March 7, 2010 6:52 PM GMT
End of Day 7

Todays Selection

14.50

Sedgefield

Double Expresso

winner

Industry S/P 1.67
Betfair S/P 1.77
Price Matched 1.81



Opening Balance £710.55
Todays Profit £77.60 After Commission
Closing Balance £788.15
Running Loss £211.85 After Commission


Selections 7

Winners 4

Losers 3

57%

Current Sequence
1 Winner

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers


Zolas back heal. open to suggestion for a good staking plan

Real Deal... Cheers mate

Starfish. always in good faith.
Report beatricegeorge March 8, 2010 10:32 AM GMT
Day 8
Todays Selection
15.00

Beyond

£100 @ 2.01

2 €59.23 €59.23
Ref: 10293100290 Bet matched:21:37 07-Mar-10

2.02 €13.77 €14.05
Ref: 10293100290 Bet matched:21:37 07-Mar-10

2.02 €27.00 €27.54
Ref: 10293100290 Bet matched:21:37 07-Mar-10
Report beatricegeorge March 8, 2010 10:12 PM GMT
End of Day 8

Todays Selection
17.00
Lingfield

Beyond

winner

Industry S/P 1.73
Betfair S/P 1.73
Price Matched 2.01




Opening Balance £788.15
Todays Profit £95.80 After Commission
Closing Balance £883.95
Running Loss £116.05 After Commission



Selections 8

Winners 5

Losers 3

62%

Current Sequence
2 Winners

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 9, 2010 7:25 AM GMT
Day 9

Tuesday 9/3/03


Toays Selection

16.20

Newcastle

Glenwood Knight

£100 @ 1.78 Matched
Report beatricegeorge March 9, 2010 10:46 AM GMT
End of Day 9

Todays Selection

Glenwood Knight

Non Runner


Industry S/P N/a
Betfair S/P N/a
Price Matched N/a



Opening Balance £883.95
Todays Profit £0.00 After Commission
Closing Balance £883.95
Running Loss £116.05 After Commission


Selections 8

Winners 5

Losers 3

62%

Current Sequence
2 Winners

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 10, 2010 10:29 AM GMT
Day 10

10/3/10

Wednesday

Todays selection

Wolverhampton 19.30

Satwa moon

£100 @ 1.74 Matched
Report soixanteneuf March 10, 2010 1:15 PM GMT
Buzzer great shout !!

it is not hard to be discplined at all, if someone loses all their dough being a txat and does not learn from it then its not a betting theory they need it is www.gamblersanonymous.co.uk ..
Report beatricegeorge March 10, 2010 7:43 PM GMT
End of Day 10

Todays Selection

Satwa moon

Loser


Industry S/P 1.80
Betfair S/P 1.91
Price Matched 1.74



Opening Balance £883.95
Todays Loss £100.00 after Commission
Closing Balance £883.95
Running Loss £216.05 After Commission


Selections 9

Winners 5

Losers 4

62%

Current Sequence
1 Loser

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 10, 2010 9:35 PM GMT
Day 11

Thursday

11/03/10

No selection for today
Report jamesdean March 11, 2010 11:10 AM GMT
unlucky again yesterday beartrice but your closing balance needs adjusted.

goodluck with this but could be better to cut and run with what youve got left,maybe try it with £10's instead of £100's to see if it works
Report beatricegeorge March 11, 2010 9:10 PM GMT
Day 12

Friday

12/3/10

Todays Selection

17.15
Sandown

Lush life

£170 Win @
BSP
Report beatricegeorge March 12, 2010 9:07 PM GMT
End of Day 12

Todays Selection

Lush Life

£170 @ 1.58

Winner


Industry S/P 1.53
Betfair S/P 1.58
Price Matched 1.58



Opening Balance £783.95
Todays Profit £94.56..After Commission
Closing Balance £878.51
Running Loss £121.49..After Commission


Selections 10

Winners 6

Losers 4

66%

Current Sequence
1 Winner

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 12, 2010 10:42 PM GMT
Day 13

Saturday


13/03/10

Todays
Selection:

Limerick 14.35

Romanesco


£100 @ 2.06 with a Take SP at the off.

Unmatched at present
Report Lozzy March 12, 2010 11:36 PM GMT
DISCIPLINE is the hardest thing to do for losing punters.

Because they lose, they lose the plot with their staking trying to win it back cos they dont believe that their methods are going to win it back anyway.

Once you start becoming a winning punter in the long run, discipline is easy.
Report beatricegeorge March 13, 2010 9:18 PM GMT
End of Day 13

Todays Selection

14.35 Limerick

Romanesco


£100 @ 1.65


Loser


Industry S/P 1.57
Betfair S/P 1.65
Price Matched 1.65



Opening Balance £878.51
Todays Loss £100 After Commission
Closing Balance £778.51
Running Loss £221.49 After Commission


Selections 11

Winners 6

Losers 5

54%

Current Sequence
1 Loser

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 14, 2010 8:42 AM GMT
Day 14

Sunday

14/03/10

Todays Selection:

14.35 Limerick

Glenlo Abbey

£150 @ 1.90 with a take BSP at the off


Unmatched at present
Report beatricegeorge March 14, 2010 12:59 PM GMT
Day 14

Sunday

14/03/10

Todays Selection:

14.35 Limerick

Glenlo Abbey

£150 @ 1.90


Matched
Report beatricegeorge March 15, 2010 10:04 AM GMT
End of Day 14

Todays Selection

14.35 Limerick

Glenlo Abbey


£150 @ 1.90


Loser


Industry S/P 1.90
Betfair S/P 1.96
Price Matched 1.90



Opening Balance £778.51
Todays Loss £150.00 After Commission
Closing Balance £628.51
Running Loss £371.49 After Commission


Selections 12

Winners 6

Losers 6

50%

Current Sequence
2 Loser

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers
Report beatricegeorge March 15, 2010 10:05 AM GMT
Day 15

Monday

15/03/10

Todays Selection:


14.40 Stratford

Bonikos

£280 @ 1.97 Matched
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2010 10:56 AM GMT
BG - Surely by now you see that this "way" of betting ....just does not work.

As you are systematically increasing stakes BASED ON LOSSES SUSTAINED, and not on the "value" of the bet, then the bank WILL be wiped out.

You have staked a huge chunk of your remaining bank on a -

1. BEGINNER'S CHASE.
2. A 3 runner race where the other 2 runners appear to have a chance to win, and are older horses.
3. On a horse that has only ran in a CHASE once before on going that was softish and was 2nd .......how will it react to FASTER going today over FENCES?
4. At odds that are "odds on".....just!


Is a BEGINNER'S CHASE such a strong race type to "risk" such a huge amount of bank on SYSTEMATICALLY ....without any "thought" as to "value" it appears?

The horse may well win.........but the odds are far too short to "risk" the percentage of remaining bank left IMO!

Surely you should re-think what you are doing BEFORE BANK WIPED OUT!
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2010 11:10 AM GMT
Even using KELLY STAKES CALCULATOR re your above selection -

BANK 628.51
ODDS AVAILABLE BF 1.85
COMMISSION 5% SAY
WIN PROBABILITY (2-1 SP) 66.67% ( all 3 appear to hold a chance to win)
STAKE 5 OF BANK = 25.39

STAKE = 159.61
==========================================

Of course if you consider the horse has a better probability to win than 66.67%, the STAKING wouldbe higher..........but is a BEGINNER'S CHASE with 3 runners ( probably not ran like a race where more runners etc ) really a better probability for your selection????


Anyway .....at least using KELLY STAKE CALCULATOR would be far better way for you to determine stake size ....as you are having to use your brain rather than staking AUTOMATICALLY based on previous losses......


Here is a link

http://www.seriousbet.co.uk/calculators/kelly_staking
Report DFCIRONMAN March 15, 2010 1:39 PM GMT
GL with bet
Report buzzer March 15, 2010 1:46 PM GMT
time for a review bg :(
Report beatricegeorge March 15, 2010 8:25 PM GMT
End of Day 15

Todays Selection

14.40 Stratford

Bonikos

£280 @ 1.97


Loser


Industry S/P2.10
Betfair S/P2.16
Price Matched 1.97



Opening Balance £628.51
Todays Loss £280 After Commission
Closing Balance £348.51
Running Loss £651.49 After Commission


Selections 13

Winners 6

Losers 7



Current Sequence
3 Loser

Longest Winning Sequence
3 winners

Longest Losing sequence
3 Losers


DFC Ironman
will take on board all comments at the end of the month, if not too late by then.
Thanks for your input.

agree buzzer,maybe time for a review. sticking it out for the moment,
Long term for the moment.
Report beatricegeorge March 15, 2010 8:58 PM GMT
Day 16

Tuesday

15/03/10

Todays Selection:

13.30 Cheltenham

Dunguib

£100 @ 2.00 Matched
Report jamesdean March 16, 2010 10:59 AM GMT
jamesdean 11 Mar 12:10


unlucky again yesterday beartrice.

goodluck with this but could be better to cut and run with what youve got left,maybe try it with £10's instead of £100's to see if it works



you continue to do this and listen to no one,fair enough thats up to you but you deserve to lose your money and you will its just a matter of when not if, playing a diluted martingale system on odds on favs at the nags think about it beartrice for goodness sake
Report _kawasaki_ March 16, 2010 11:43 AM GMT
dont know how to explain this (i am not very good at english :D) but try think it this way: when you are increasing your stakes, you are not recovering, you are just BETTING WITH BIGGER STAKE, it means bigger percentage of your bankroll, it means you just LOOSING FASTER. you have to have VALIUE on you pick (take price bigger than there is chance event happening) if you want be in profit over long time. no one recovering strategy in der world will save your ass if you dont have valiue
its boring truth, but it is truth, and life will hit you again and again, till you understand it or till you go broke and live under bridge :D
Report beatricegeorge March 16, 2010 9:00 PM GMT
Day 17 Will update day 16 tomorrow
Cheers Jd,Kawaski. Struggling I know, shocked at dunguib getting beat.
will stay with this till the end of the month or bank lost, whichever is sooner.
reassess then.

Todays selection

15.20 Cheltenham
Masterminded

£120 @ 1.90
Matched
Report jamesdean March 17, 2010 3:12 PM GMT
next bet all or nothing :-(
Report beatricegeorge March 18, 2010 10:13 AM GMT
Balance £128.51

alas the end is nigh. Cant believe how poorly some of the selections ran. Though my selection process needs a bit of work.I gave it a go and as there is no point in prolonging the agony I am having the remainder on 2 selections at cheltenham.either wins will get me my bank back. Both lose and i will slip away to a dusty corner for a bit and think long and hard about my next assault.
The thread is dead and regardless if these win today the initial system did not work .
Thanks to all for the input.

Todays Selections

13.30 Cheltenham Midnight Chase £35.51 @ 28 with a take Bsp at the off
14.05 Cheltenham Smoking Aces £90.00 @ 13 with a take Bsp at the off
and a £3 double (just in case)


Cheers
Report Numpterous Numpterous Ghally March 18, 2010 10:38 AM GMT
I really hope that you get a winner today BG,I think your system is obviously wrong.But I dont think that you are.I kind of think that if you give your next attempt a different approach you would have a great chance.
You seem really calm & controlled etc.Which in theory must be a good thing.I would have thought that you would be quite good at a challenge like for example Johnnywad.Whatever way your challenge had gone.I dont suppose that it was going to make you rich.
If you started with lets say £250-00 & tried his sort of approach.I think that you could definately do it.
It's really sad that you didn't do it,because you were very well thought of on here & I'm sure that alot of folks on here were rooting for you.I for one used to check your thread with my fingers crossed every day.You didn't really attract the snipers which normally love to jump on you when things dont work out.
Anyway good luck today & dont let the b*ggers get you down.
Report jamesdean March 18, 2010 11:23 AM GMT
gl beartrice, be shouting both home for you
Report Hugh G Rection March 18, 2010 12:25 PM GMT
The Midnight Club you mean ?? *** into 19 now from 28
Report TheSnapper March 19, 2010 7:46 AM GMT
**

Thar is no way t' know the "'alue o' the bet". This is whar you be goin' wrong. You must repent and become a Pirate Trader. Gi'e up bettin' and start tradin' and makin' money on Betfair lad, shiver me timbers!
Report beatricegeorge March 19, 2010 10:47 AM GMT
Wasn't to be............
thanks to all for support.
Will return with new venture soon enough.
Need to look at the drawing board first.

Cheers.

My Will in the Gold cup each way.(Sentimental reasons only)
On my current form thats one less animal for you to worry about.


If it wins i will be back Monday with a new £2000 bank for my thread.
Punchestown and Aintree to come.HAPPY DAYS.
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