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End of Day 4
Todays Selection 15.50 Taunton Pistolet Noir Loser Industry S/P 1.53 Betfair S/P 1.58 Price Matched 1.55 Opening Balance £1245.55 Todays Loss £100.00 Closing Balance £1145.55. Running Profit £145.55 After Commission Selections 4 Winners 3 Losers 1 75% Current Sequence 1 Loser Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 1 Loser Cheers |
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I prefer not to back at odds on.
If there is an odds on fancy then sometimes ask for odds against price in running under "keep" bets. I watched Massinis race - only out of interest as you selected it. I certainly traded at 2.26 because I backed in running at that price, but may have gone higher. If the bet doesn't get taken then you don't lose. In most NH races you will get evens or more about an odds on chance. |
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Day 5
Todays Selection 15.10 Doncaster Alegralil £135 @ 1.89 Matched again probably a little too early with the price starfish,Still trial and error. Fingers Crossed Pinza If you dont get matched you dont lose but dont win either If the horse loses you will be matche at that price. The first selection action impact was matched @10 in running so it can work in your favour. I can only imagine getting matched @ 10 about an odds on is when the fast pic boys reckon something is not right a few seconds before the backer sees it.Whatever it is they expected doesnt transpire and happy days for ther backer.Dont know if I could handle betting that way. Cheers Pinza |
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beatricegeorge, do me a favour, stop saying ''fingers crossed''
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End of Day 5
Todays Selection 15.10 Doncaster Alelgrelel Loser Industry S/P 1.83 Betfair S/P 1.94 Price Matched 1.89 Opening Balance £1145.55 Todays Loss £135.00 Closing Balance £1010.55 Running Profit £10.55 After Commission Selections 5 Winners 3 Losers 2 60% Current Sequence 2 Losers Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 2 Losers |
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Day 6
Saturday 06/03/10 Selection: 14.10 Gowran Park Better Times £300 @ various(around 11/10) with a take SP @ the Off Part Matched at present Will Post Matched Bet tomorrow |
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Sorry B,but why the £300-00 stake.
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(You knew this was coming..)
There was a poster on this forum this year who showed its possible to make decent profits from odds-on shots at level stakes. He who shall not be named turned out to have as much self-respect as a bowl of jelly, but he was a master of using a well-worn cliche to reinforce the need for discipline and self-preservation. Two of them were 'don't be afraid to take a loss' and 'dont cut off your nose to spite your face. Really want to see this thread in April and at this rate it simply will not regardless of this one result. Betting 300% more on a horse with a 10% less chance : does that sound right? Remember the title of this thread! Please get out of the balance of your bet! good luck with Better Times |
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Real Deal
I am posting this prior to the race, and my view was (Very wrong now) the selection would be more likely to go off @1.80 than what it will. hence the £300 stake was to recover the £235 loss. Too busy this morning to monitor the market. Starfish. I am only doing what I said I would, I will be wrong sometimes and looks likely today may be one of them. To take a loss is as honourable if not more than to hold out for a profit and suffer a loss. But at the moment nothing has changed on my view in the race other than the extra bit of comfort we get when we see money coming for our selection. Cheers lads |
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End of Day 6
Todays Selection 14.10 Gowran Park Better Times Loser Industry S/P 2.10 Betfair S/P 2.34 Price Matched 2.10 Opening Balance £1145.55 Todays Loss £300.00 Closing Balance £1010.55 Running Profit £289.45 After Commission Selections 6 Winners 3 Losers 3 50% Current Sequence 3Losers Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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unlucky today beartrice, the running profit should in the minus though
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Thanks JD
End of Day 6 Todays Selection 14.10 Gowran Park Better Times Loser Industry S/P 2.10 Betfair S/P 2.34 Price Matched 2.10 ***Correction*** Opening Balance £1010.55 Todays Loss £300.00 Closing Balance £710.55. Running LOSS £289.45 After Commission Selections 6 Winners 3 Losers 3 50% Current Sequence 3Losers Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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Day 7
Sunday 07/03/10 Selection: 14.50 Sedgefield Double expresso £100 @ 1.81 Matched starfish and coffee 02 Mar 08:07 I dont usually contribute to these threads but I'm going to put in my t**ence worth here having now read your staking plan which is doomed to failure. Presumably you are using a recovery method because you find it painful to accept 1 or 2 losses in a row. Yet this method asks you to then cheerfully accept 3 losses, then set about getting 7 straight wins before recovering your loss. Thats really too much to ask of anyone. Spot on Starfish. It is hard to accept the loss but long term discipine is whats needed.This morning I would love to have another go at recovery but would make the thread pointless assumimg there is any point to the thread already.Times like this I need to justify my betting.I have had 3 days(losers) in which to think about it. Now as your friend (the Voices I think you mean who now wants money for his tips) says there is no shame in taking a loss. My time is now and as I said on post one of the the thread now is when I take it. Surely that is more honourable than to take it yesterday.IF I took it yesterday and the selection won,things like that can play havoc with ones mindset.The Thread rules are set for the month of March (if it lasts that long) following this I will analyse the results and see what comes up.If i see something better or clearer I will adapt the rules to suit,but at a pedestrian pace,no rushing to the quick buck,as it wont be there when you arrive. Cheers starfish Fingers Crossed Kenilworth |
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Maybe the way to treat these 3 losses is they could have been your first 3 bets, in which case at level stakes you would have 700, but you have 729.
So i hope you can just carry on finding the winners again, hope it can be level stakes and betfair SP. It takes some backbone to do what you're doing here and accepting any comeback honestly and in good faith. Thats why you've got my support and i presume some others. (I'm gonna stay off your thread for a while now!) |
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Do you have answers to these questions:
How many bets to you expect to make in your lifetime? You can't expect to win every bet can you? So how many do you think you are going to get wrong in your lifetime? What makes you think they won't occasionally come in clusters of losing days after losing days? If you and (more importantly) your staking system cannot handle a decent losing run. You are doomed to fail. |
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Well done Beatrice,was getting slightly concerned for you.But hey your back in the winners enclosure & you beat the price as well. I'm really rooting for you,but like others,Do worry about the task you have set yourself.Your going to be some good tipster to crack this one.
But everyone loves a trier. |
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End of Day 7
Todays Selection 14.50 Sedgefield Double Expresso winner Industry S/P 1.67 Betfair S/P 1.77 Price Matched 1.81 Opening Balance £710.55 Todays Profit £77.60 After Commission Closing Balance £788.15 Running Loss £211.85 After Commission Selections 7 Winners 4 Losers 3 57% Current Sequence 1 Winner Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers Zolas back heal. open to suggestion for a good staking plan Real Deal... Cheers mate Starfish. always in good faith. |
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Day 8
Todays Selection 15.00 Beyond £100 @ 2.01 2 59.23 59.23 Ref: 10293100290 Bet matched:21:37 07-Mar-10 2.02 13.77 14.05 Ref: 10293100290 Bet matched:21:37 07-Mar-10 2.02 27.00 27.54 Ref: 10293100290 Bet matched:21:37 07-Mar-10 |
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End of Day 8
Todays Selection 17.00 Lingfield Beyond winner Industry S/P 1.73 Betfair S/P 1.73 Price Matched 2.01 Opening Balance £788.15 Todays Profit £95.80 After Commission Closing Balance £883.95 Running Loss £116.05 After Commission Selections 8 Winners 5 Losers 3 62% Current Sequence 2 Winners Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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Day 9
Tuesday 9/3/03 Toays Selection 16.20 Newcastle Glenwood Knight £100 @ 1.78 Matched |
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End of Day 9
Todays Selection Glenwood Knight Non Runner Industry S/P N/a Betfair S/P N/a Price Matched N/a Opening Balance £883.95 Todays Profit £0.00 After Commission Closing Balance £883.95 Running Loss £116.05 After Commission Selections 8 Winners 5 Losers 3 62% Current Sequence 2 Winners Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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Day 10
10/3/10 Wednesday Todays selection Wolverhampton 19.30 Satwa moon £100 @ 1.74 Matched |
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Buzzer great shout !!
it is not hard to be discplined at all, if someone loses all their dough being a txat and does not learn from it then its not a betting theory they need it is www.gamblersanonymous.co.uk .. |
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End of Day 10
Todays Selection Satwa moon Loser Industry S/P 1.80 Betfair S/P 1.91 Price Matched 1.74 Opening Balance £883.95 Todays Loss £100.00 after Commission Closing Balance £883.95 Running Loss £216.05 After Commission Selections 9 Winners 5 Losers 4 62% Current Sequence 1 Loser Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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Day 11
Thursday 11/03/10 No selection for today |
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unlucky again yesterday beartrice but your closing balance needs adjusted.
goodluck with this but could be better to cut and run with what youve got left,maybe try it with £10's instead of £100's to see if it works |
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Day 12
Friday 12/3/10 Todays Selection 17.15 Sandown Lush life £170 Win @ BSP |
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End of Day 12
Todays Selection Lush Life £170 @ 1.58 Winner Industry S/P 1.53 Betfair S/P 1.58 Price Matched 1.58 Opening Balance £783.95 Todays Profit £94.56..After Commission Closing Balance £878.51 Running Loss £121.49..After Commission Selections 10 Winners 6 Losers 4 66% Current Sequence 1 Winner Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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Day 13
Saturday 13/03/10 Todays Selection: Limerick 14.35 Romanesco £100 @ 2.06 with a Take SP at the off. Unmatched at present |
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DISCIPLINE is the hardest thing to do for losing punters.
Because they lose, they lose the plot with their staking trying to win it back cos they dont believe that their methods are going to win it back anyway. Once you start becoming a winning punter in the long run, discipline is easy. |
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End of Day 13
Todays Selection 14.35 Limerick Romanesco £100 @ 1.65 Loser Industry S/P 1.57 Betfair S/P 1.65 Price Matched 1.65 Opening Balance £878.51 Todays Loss £100 After Commission Closing Balance £778.51 Running Loss £221.49 After Commission Selections 11 Winners 6 Losers 5 54% Current Sequence 1 Loser Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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Day 14
Sunday 14/03/10 Todays Selection: 14.35 Limerick Glenlo Abbey £150 @ 1.90 with a take BSP at the off Unmatched at present |
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Day 14
Sunday 14/03/10 Todays Selection: 14.35 Limerick Glenlo Abbey £150 @ 1.90 Matched |
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End of Day 14
Todays Selection 14.35 Limerick Glenlo Abbey £150 @ 1.90 Loser Industry S/P 1.90 Betfair S/P 1.96 Price Matched 1.90 Opening Balance £778.51 Todays Loss £150.00 After Commission Closing Balance £628.51 Running Loss £371.49 After Commission Selections 12 Winners 6 Losers 6 50% Current Sequence 2 Loser Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers |
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Day 15
Monday 15/03/10 Todays Selection: 14.40 Stratford Bonikos £280 @ 1.97 Matched |
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BG - Surely by now you see that this "way" of betting ....just does not work.
As you are systematically increasing stakes BASED ON LOSSES SUSTAINED, and not on the "value" of the bet, then the bank WILL be wiped out. You have staked a huge chunk of your remaining bank on a - 1. BEGINNER'S CHASE. 2. A 3 runner race where the other 2 runners appear to have a chance to win, and are older horses. 3. On a horse that has only ran in a CHASE once before on going that was softish and was 2nd .......how will it react to FASTER going today over FENCES? 4. At odds that are "odds on".....just! Is a BEGINNER'S CHASE such a strong race type to "risk" such a huge amount of bank on SYSTEMATICALLY ....without any "thought" as to "value" it appears? The horse may well win.........but the odds are far too short to "risk" the percentage of remaining bank left IMO! Surely you should re-think what you are doing BEFORE BANK WIPED OUT! |
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Even using KELLY STAKES CALCULATOR re your above selection -
BANK 628.51 ODDS AVAILABLE BF 1.85 COMMISSION 5% SAY WIN PROBABILITY (2-1 SP) 66.67% ( all 3 appear to hold a chance to win) STAKE 5 OF BANK = 25.39 STAKE = 159.61 ========================================== Of course if you consider the horse has a better probability to win than 66.67%, the STAKING wouldbe higher..........but is a BEGINNER'S CHASE with 3 runners ( probably not ran like a race where more runners etc ) really a better probability for your selection???? Anyway .....at least using KELLY STAKE CALCULATOR would be far better way for you to determine stake size ....as you are having to use your brain rather than staking AUTOMATICALLY based on previous losses...... Here is a link http://www.seriousbet.co.uk/calculators/kelly_staking |
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GL with bet
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time for a review bg :(
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End of Day 15
Todays Selection 14.40 Stratford Bonikos £280 @ 1.97 Loser Industry S/P2.10 Betfair S/P2.16 Price Matched 1.97 Opening Balance £628.51 Todays Loss £280 After Commission Closing Balance £348.51 Running Loss £651.49 After Commission Selections 13 Winners 6 Losers 7 Current Sequence 3 Loser Longest Winning Sequence 3 winners Longest Losing sequence 3 Losers DFC Ironman will take on board all comments at the end of the month, if not too late by then. Thanks for your input. agree buzzer,maybe time for a review. sticking it out for the moment, Long term for the moment. |