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HORSE RACES AND USING KELLY CALC and IR BETS STEP3

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Replies: 245
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 12:48
2.00 Also a £2 win cover on Haling Park at 15s
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 12:53
2.10- Lindy Lou


MONEY BANK now : £ 393 .00 before 1.50 race

ODDS AVAILABLE : 5.6 ( Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 3 -1 ( 25 %)
STAKE INDICATED : 30.80

WIN STAKE £10

Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 12:58
2.10 also a REV EXACTA with FAV and LINDY LOU ....cost £4
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:06
No stakes lost in WIN market on AM I BLUE ..................
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:08
Fakenham 2.00

1st 3 Evening Sunset (GER) 13-8
2nd 10 Luthien (IRE) 100-1
3rd 5 Am I Blue 12-1 ....a reasonable run ...
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:10
2.20 - would take too long to puzzle out ..so PASS
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:16
A winner at last ...was gonna cancel LAY IR ...but never ....it was travelling very well (LINDY LOU) .....but you nevr "know2 IMO with a race what might happen ...so played "safe2 ( will I ever make a gambler ???? :D)
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:17
Folkestone 2.10

1st 3 Lindy Lou 6-1
2nd 4 Princess Flame (GER) 12-1



I bet early as running this thread ...so lost out on drift in odds.................DRATTTT
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:19
BANK now £418.23......so down a bit so far on day ......difference due to me possibly writing off too much IR on the last winner....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:20
2.30 PASS ...not sure on this race
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:25
2.40- Pauillac


MONEY BANK now : £ 418.23
ODDS AVAILABLE : 11.5 ( Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 8-1 ( 11.11 %)
STAKE INDICATED : 9.20

WIN STAKE £9.20
Also a £2 cover win bet on FAV


Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:34
2.50- ELUSIVE FLAME

MONEY BANK now : £ 407.03 before 2.40 race
ODDS AVAILABLE : 8.4 ( Betfair)
PROBABILITY % =6-1 ( 14.29%)
STAKE INDICATED : 8.54


WIN STAKE £8.54


Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:35
£2 win cover bet on IRON OUT in 2.50
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:42
3.00 MY CONDOR


MONEY BANK now : £ 396.49 before 2.40 race
ODDS AVAILABLE : 4.9 ( Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 3-1 ( 25%)
STAKE INDICATED : 18.86


WIN STAKE £ 10

£1 REV EXACTA with FAV too

Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:49
LAYS IR in 2.40 gave a small profit £5.56 before commission
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:50
Folkestone 2.40

1st 6 Nikos Extra (FR) 3-1 F only a small win cover bet.
2nd 11 Far More Serious (IRE) 5-1
3rd 12 Shake The Barley (IRE) 25-1
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:53
ELUSIVE FLAME ...a decent odds one at last :D

Still wrote off too much IR :(
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:54
Southwell 2.50

1st 5 Elusive Fame (USA) 8-1
2nd 3 Iron Out (USA) 6-1 this was the cover bet ...so cross lays worked ok
3rd 2 Hilbre Court (USA) 7-1
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:56
3.10 PASS ...away for coffee
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 13:57
BANK before 3.00 race 446.14 so now into profit for day ...small amount due to ERROR early on with lay twice IR instead of once etc.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:06
No loss of stakes on 3.00 ...MY CONDOR approached last fence at an angle and hit it .....DRATTTTTTTTTT...at least horse is ok
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:08
Feeling a bit lazy ....so £2 win NACHO LIBRE in 3.20
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:23
3.30- Phoenix Ice


MONEY BANK now : £ 454 .14 before 3.20 race
ODDS AVAILABLE : 9 ( Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 7-1 ( 12.5 %)
STAKE INDICATED : 4.50

WIN STAKE £ 4.50


Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:25
£2 win cover bet on STRETCH THE TRUTH in 3.30
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:30
3.40 - Maraksh


MONEY BANK now : £ 447.64 before 3.30 race
ODDS AVAILABLE : 3.55 (Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 2-1 ( 33.33 %)
STAKE INDICATED : 26


WIN STAKE £ 8
Cover bet £" win on BORN AGAIN

Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:39
3.50 PASS on this one.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:46
STOPPING now ...small profit for day ..............will post once P & L updated
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 17 Nov 09 14:54
DAY 3 - RESULTS

Horse Racing: £18.11 Total P&L: £18.11


Horse Racing Showing 1 - 15 of 15 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Folk 17th Nov : 2m1f NHF 17-Nov-09 15:40 17-Nov-09 15:47 -2.17
Horse Racing / Fake 17th Nov : 2m Hcap Hrd 17-Nov-09 15:30 17-Nov-09 15:36 -6.50
Horse Racing / Sthl 17th Nov : 6f Hcap 17-Nov-09 15:20 17-Nov-09 15:24 -2.00
Horse Racing / Fake 17th Nov : 2m Hcap Chs 17-Nov-09 15:00 17-Nov-09 15:08 0.00
Horse Racing / Sthl 17th Nov : 1m Hcap 17-Nov-09 14:50 17-Nov-09 14:55 34.62
Horse Racing / Folk 17th Nov : 2m5f Hcap Chs 17-Nov-09 14:40 17-Nov-09 14:50 5.29
Horse Racing / Folk 17th Nov : 2m1f Hcap Hrd 17-Nov-09 14:10 17-Nov-09 14:17 20.74
Horse Racing / Fake 17th Nov : 2m Nov Hrd 17-Nov-09 14:00 17-Nov-09 14:09 0.00
Horse Racing / Sthl 17th Nov : 6f Nursery 17-Nov-09 13:50 17-Nov-09 13:57 -6.00
Horse Racing / Folk 17th Nov : 2m5f Nov Chs 17-Nov-09 13:40 17-Nov-09 13:46 -5.75
Horse Racing / Fake (RFC) 17th Nov : Reverse FC 17-Nov-09 13:30 17-Nov-09 13:43 -2.00
Horse Racing / Fake 17th Nov : 2m5f Hcap Chs 17-Nov-09 13:30 17-Nov-09 13:42 0.11
Horse Racing / Folk 17th Nov : 2m1f Nov Hrd 17-Nov-09 13:10 17-Nov-09 13:17 -11.00
Horse Racing / Sthl 17th Nov : 7f Sell Stks 17-Nov-09 12:50 17-Nov-09 12:56 -7.12
Horse Racing / Sthl 17th Nov : 6f Hcap 17-Nov-09 12:20 17-Nov-09 12:25 -0.11

Got to deduct losing TOTE bets from above profit ....they amounted to £9 ...leaving £ 9.11 profit for DAY 3.

BANK now £ 445.47....so increase on BANK by 2 % ....so cannot complain......though I will re my ERROR early on re LAYING a winner twice , instead of once , IR........cost approximately £15......in lost profit.

Cheers the noooooooooooo
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 10:58
BANK after football bets last night now £ 467.30 less £18 to a/c of football bets put on for today.

So start with £ 449.30 today
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:00
12.00 no time to do..WUNDERSTRIKE might be the winner ...but PASS...ACHROMATIC the danger
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:07
12.30- PASS ....CUMANI one looks likely to win ...but odds probably poor value....so pass
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:09
12.40 -Don'tlike shape of race ..PASS
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:27
1.00 - INSIDE TRACK


MONEY BANK now : £ 449.30
ODDS AVAILABLE : 16 (Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 9-1 ( 10%)
STAKE INDICATED : 16.55


WIN STAKE £ 6
Cover bet £2 RFC with ROYAL BOX at 11s


Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:28
1.00 Also a RFC with INSIDE TRACK and RAMAMARA for £2 at 12.5
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:48
1.10- Hareem

MONEY BANK now : £ 439.30
ODDS AVAILABLE : 9.4 (Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 7- 1 ( 12.50 %)
STAKE INDICATED : 6.74


WIN STAKE £ 4.74 Hareem

Cover bet £2 PLACE on EMOTIVE at 5.3

Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:52
1.30 Jarrow likely winner ...but not tempted as a couple could take it on ...and odds not attractive for me etc PASS
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 11:58
1.40- BLUE GUN

MONEY BANK now : £ 432.56 before 1.00 race

ODDS AVAILABLE : 3.7 (Betfair)
PROBABILITY % = 2- 1 ( 33.33%)
STAKE INDICATED : 31.74


WIN STAKE £ 10 BLUE GUN

Cover bet £2 WIN on BLUE SHARK at 9.6

Using roughly one third total stakes .....in most races ...but might use FULLY KELLY occasionally.
Will be setting lays IR in WIN MARKET ONLY
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 12:03
1.05 ....no time to do calc as household chores to do :(

The Armed Man £2 EW at big odds ..............
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 12:10
Nice PLACE in 1.05 :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 18 Nov 09 12:16
Clonmel 1.05

1st 3 Slievecorragh (IRE) 10-3
2nd 12 The Armed Man (IRE) 25-1
3rd 13 Watt A Diva (IRE) 28-1


Jockey hesitated on last two fences ....might have won ...but never ot close enough for IR lays on big odds in WIN MARKET :( ...still had good return on PLACE though :D
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