Freelance

With Harris ruled out of the 3rd test there goes my "Series Aussie Wicket Taker" bet and along with it goes a fair amount of the potency in Australias bowling attack.  This has probably helped the pre-match odds on the draw into 1.71 favourite and yet with the Sri Lankans 0-1 down with 1 test to go, you'd have to expect that they will be pushing for a result.  I'm wondering if they may try and serve up another dusty wicket to see if they can't ambush the high flying Aussies who would be feeling they deserved the win last test, but were robbed by the weather.  (That's certainly how I feel anyway !)

There were enough positives in the 2nd test for Sri Lanka to draw some confidence.  2nd Innings they fared a lot better than many expected and the old firm of Jayawardene/Sangakarra are showing signs that they can still be formidable when they focus.  Siddle adds a differrent dimension to the Aussie attack and he may well repeat his Melbourne heroics to become the top wicket taker for the Aussies this test, but I think his bowling is not well suited to the Sri Lankan conditions and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Aussie attack struggle without Harris.

Khawaja is unlucky to be dropped after not really getting a chance and while Ricky was showing glimpses of form before his departure, he may not be back in the right headspace for this test.  Marsh will also need to make sure his 2nd test success doesn't go to his head.  Hughes is lucky to still be there after some indifferrent innings and I don't expect much from him this test either.

All up, I think the Sri Lankans are value at 6.20 and my pre-game position is to back them outright.  Even though I'm not convinced they can actually win the test I think they will trade lower.  Particularly if they bat first and can post 400+ or if we see a dusty wicket they will be right in this contest.  I also think that anything over 4.50 for Jayawardene/Sangakarra Top Bat 1st Innings is good value and I've thrown a speculator on Watson for top Australian bowler 1st Innings at 7.50.