Freelance

No surprises from the first 2 days of this test match.  Australian batsmen getting out to loose shots and underperforming on a pitch that should have been ripe for a 400+ 1st innings score.  Hughes failing miserably again, but luckily Marsh and Hussey carried on from the 2nd test otherwise the Aussie score could have been much lower.

Also expected was the Aussie attack struggling in the absence of Harris.  Siddle has done well (all things considered) and atleast the Aussies can trust that he'll keep trying, but some of the other bowlers are in danger of allowing frustration to take them out of the game as they have a tendency to be mentally fragile in these situations.  I think the best Aussie hope will be the reverse swing of Watson.

Sangakarra and Jayawardene could put on a big partnership here, so again the 1st hour of play is crucial.  If Australia can't break through early these two could both be up for big hundreds and they have the potential to take the game right away from Australia.

The market has got the prices about right, but I am a little bit concerned that this match may be headed for another draw.  The Sri Lanka price may not improve a great deal even if they bat all day, but the draw price will.  Therefore I've trading out some of my Sri Lanka green at 3.45 and used that (plus some extra) to cover my exposure on the draw at 1.61.  I still have a healthy green on Sri Lanka, neutral on the draw and a red on Australia.  I'm expecting the Australian odds could be out to 30+ by the end of day 3 if Sri Lanka bat well and I will look to green up across the board at around this price mark.