Freelance

The end of Day 3 sees the Australian bowlers tired and wilting in the hot Sri Lankan conditions as the hosts enjoy thier strongest batting performance of the series so far.  Watson got the early breakthrough with his reverse swing and when Siddle took Sangakarra soon after it looked like the Aussies might have averted disaster, but the rest of the attack was fairly feeble and even the lower order Sri Lanka batsmen have been able to get runs.

Tommorrow morning the Aussie bowlers will be fresher and with the 2nd new ball due I'd expect they should be able to close out the Sri Lanka innings before lunch with Siddle the most likely wrecker.  Then the big question is whether Australia can bat for 4 sessions to prevent a Sri Lankan victory.  I think the pitch is still playing fairly true and the Aussie batsmen will be a bit more focused and determined than they were in the 1st innings so they should perform a lot better with fewer loose shots played.

Australia are now paying 60 and so I'm taking the opporuntity to green up across the board and shift my largest green from Sri Lanka (now laying at 2.86) to the draw at 1.58.  Australia don't need to win this test to win the series, so if they are good enough they are likely to bat well into Day 5.  We might see the draw price spike up early on Day 4 if/when the Sri Lankan wickets fall before lunch, but I'd expect it to crash again once the Aussies put together thier first decent partnership (probably after Hughes gets out).  Expect a gritty innings from Ponting on Day 4.  These situations bring out the best in him.