Freelance

I didn't blog before the start of the 3rd India vs England test because I didn't have a lot to say.  The prices were about right and while I favoured England, I was very tempted not to back them because thier price was almost too short.  Having said that, you might be surprised as to the reason why I am posting now.

Pre-game England were around 2.40 and after Day 1 they dismissed India cheaply to finish at around 1.36.  All seemed reasonable and sensible so far.  Then comes Day 2 where India are completely dominated again.  England playing smart cricket with discipline and determination to get to 456/3 with a lead of 232 runs and 7 wickets after just 2 days.  India showing further signs of capitulation and demoralisation with poor fielding and dropped catches.....yet after another one sided day the England price has only shortened to 1.24 ?

I normally don't touch the short odds, and certainly am very wary of reccommending others to take them, but the market has got this horribly wrong.  I can see Cook starting cautiously again on Day 3, focused and determined to get his 200.  Once he's got his eye back in he is even a chance of getting to 300 the way things are going and England are well placed to bat another 2 to 2.5 sessions on Day 3 to build a 500 run lead.  Weather permitting, that then gives England maybe 6.5 sessions to bowl out India on a track which is starting to deteriorate and turn.  Keep in mind that India hasn't yet posted 300 in 5 innings this series....

The only thing that can save India is rain, but there would have to be days of it.  In reality I wouldn't be surprised to see this match end on Day 4 with an Innings Victory for England.  There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in sport, but this 1.24 on a team that is utterly dominating after 2 days is just too good to pass up.