Freelance

Very happy with my pre-game position and comments, though I wasn't expecting to be so right so soon and facing a lay-off after Day 1 !

The market has got it about right, with India now into 2.0 and England 2.7, but I'm only laying off half my stake at this point because I think it's likely that India will shorten even further on Day 2.

The situation is perfect for Rahul "The Wall" Dravid, and if he has his head on right he has the form to see off the 1st session with his dour batting style.  Don't expect a strike rate over 30 and don't expect a top score from him either, but if he can see off the morning session, take the shine off the ball, frustrate the English bowlers and let the demons in the pitch die down he will set the game up nicely for Tendulkar and company to exploit the English spinners.  At the end of day 2 a score that looks like 280/5 or better will have the English punters crying into their warm ales and India into odds-on favourtism.

Worst case I see is India following the England collapse which would see the draw price blow out, but the head to head pricing fairly even - so there is no huge risk in maintaining an exposure on India for another day.