Football
Liverpoo 1.52 v Stoke City? Lay of the decade.
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I think you're thinking about cases where you've overstaked to the point that you don't care about value anymore because you're sh*tting yourself too much. Simple solution to that - don't overstake.
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sofaking
Date Joined: 08 Nov 07 Add contact | Send message 07 Oct 12 22:37 Joined: 08 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 12,980 | Blogger: sofaking's blog Oct 7, 2012 -- 10:33PM, Rowan86 wrote: Do you make any money on Betfair, Rowan? Why would I leave myself so exposed against a Liverpool goal late on in the game when I can green up at much higher odds? And I never overstake. What do you mean making yourself exposed? You're trying to make a long-term profit. You should only back Liverpool at 3.0 with 12 mins + injury time left if you think there's more than a 1 in 3 chance of Liverpool winning the match from that point because if you keep staking evenly at 3.0, you need to win more than 1 in 3 of those bets to make a profit. Any previous bet made on the same event should be completely irrelevant to the judgement you make on that unless you've staked so much that you're sh*tting yourself, so don't overstake. Why are you so keen to make an overall profit on the match? Does someone give you a bonus prize for doing that? You should be focussed on being ahead after 1000s of bets on all events. |
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I'm guessing he got stung backing Liverpool. There's no need for this nonsense, whatever.
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CJ70
07 Oct 12 22:37 Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 3,712 | Blogger: CJ70's blog Oct 7, 2012 -- 10:35PM, Rowan86 wrote: In all fairness mate, with that attitude you might just as well back the Faroes against Spain and pile in again once the Faroes get an early goal. Any previous bet you've made on an event should have absolutely no bearing on any subsequent bet you make in-running. It's just another bet ffs!! I don't know how better explain how an exchange works to you. I'm wondering how to cure your irrational greening-up compulsion. |
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Cya SofaKing.
Bad luck on the bets you made on Liverpool to win at 1.77 after 35 mins, and at 3.0 with 12 mins + injury time you made! Not sure why you thought they were good value after you said that 1.52 was ridiculously short pre kick-off though! |
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Ok, this is obviously a fishing attempt. Silly me for falling for it.
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CJ70. You're just too intellectual pal. I need to try and understand these "trade-bets". I just find it strange how value just doesn't matter with those.
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This is your logic:
37 mins gone, Liverpool 0 Stoke 0. Is 1.77 a good value bet? Who gives a f*ck, I know I'm going to make a net profit off the match if I make that bet! Why can't we apply this over a longer time period? I'm £1000 up this week. I'll just stick a pin in the paper and bet £500 on anything. Forget value. I know I'm going to be at least £500 up for the week whatever happens! |
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Bravoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
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Hello egner.
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[shocked:] You just talk sh*te.
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So now you're going to explain why you thought Liverpool were value at 1.77 after 35 mins even though you thought they were ridiculous at 1.52 pre kick-off?
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excellent shout sofaking.....
although this time next year..asuming the scousres give Powell enough time to whip them into shape....they will be playing like the Spurs of the north...!!!!!!! oh yeahyyyy   |
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CJ70
07 Oct 12 23:31 Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 3,718 | Blogger: CJ70's blog
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Oh dear God. You must be joking! What a pathetic explanation. I actually thought you might come out with something really insightful given how confident you were!
There's no bonus prize for making a net profit over all bets made on a particular match, so that shouldn't be your focus. You're trying to make a profit over every you make on every event and the key to that is making value bets. Any previous bet you've made on an event is irrelevant. If Liverpool were bad value at 1.77, then they weren't a good bet. Simple as that. What makes you think any other bet you've made will compensate for that? |
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There's only 2 sensible explanations for why you made that bet SofaKing:
1. I overstaked pre-match, so I didn't care if my bet was value because I was too worried about my net liability on the event. 2. I thought Liverpool had more than a 56.5% chance of winning the match from that point i.e. I thought they were good value (ignoring commission). |
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value in a sporting context is utter nonsense...only imo of course.
(actually the concept of value is nonsensical in wider applications also.... as it is such a subjective measurement as to be almost worthless) again only imo. |
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JowJow. The only thing sensible I've got from your post is that you can't be 100% certain what the "true price" for an event should be.
That's obviously true. That's why there are markets. Do you think the whole process of attempting to estimate how often things happen in sporting events is redundant? If it is redundant, then what is a sensible approach to winning long--term at gambling? Surely the whole point is to try and estimate how often things happen? |
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...personally i think he could be destines foe great things sofaking...i like his philosophy...whether he can get ALL the current Liverpool players to buy into it im not sure.....
but if they give him a couple of years to stamp his philosophy throughout the club...at all levels...maybe Liverpool will be the trailblazers again as in the seventies and eighties. |
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CJ70. You have offered absolutely explanation for why SofaKing made that bet other than that he was sh*tting himself about making a loss on the match? Why do you place so much emphasis on the net profit/loss made over bets made on the match when what actually matters is profit/loss made over all bets made on every event?
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i would have sofa..
though hopefully AVB will prove me wrong.....the signs are pretty good arnt they .....and he is obviously sticking to the spurs way of playing....also love the way we are pressing high up the pitch..very agressive...great so far. |
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Well played Sofaking.
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