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Computer Based 1+ Goals Betting Mk 2
Computer Based 1+ Goals Betting Mk 2
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Replies: 1,126
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2-0 pool too, goals galore
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Barca will get at least 4 in this game!
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Start Bank £10.00
001 Sheff Weds v Oldham 0.5+ goals £10.00 @ 1.05 [3-0] 002 Go Ahead Eagles v Dordrecht 0.5+ goals £10.47 @ 1.03 [4-2] 003 Spurs v Norwich 0.5+ goals £10.76 @ 1.04 [1-2] 004 Young Boys v Lausanne 0.5+ goals £11.17 @ 1.06 [1-3] 005 Emmen v Telstar 0.5+ goals £11.81 @ 1.04 [0-2] 006 Malaga v Racing Santander 0.5+ goals £12.27 @ 1.05 [3-0] 007 St Pauli v Union Berlin 0.5+ goals £12.85 @ 1.05 [2-1] 008 Mainz v Koln 0.5+ goals £13.46 @ 1.05 009 Barcelona v Getafe 0.5+ goals £14.10 @ 1.02 That's it for me tonight...no other qualifiers! Will be looking at tomorrow's fixtures now. Good luck all. |
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2-0 barcelona now could be anything in the 2nd half
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do we take 1.13 on over 2.5 in the barca game?
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I made predictions for bundesliga 2:
aachen v bochum = 2,5 aue v paderborn = 2,6 frankfurt v ingolstadt = 2,7 karlsruhe v dresden = 3,7 mun1860 v duisburg = 3,5 _____ hope i did it correct and I understand the formula |
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Agree with all those except frankfurt v ingolstadt which I make 3.6 (but I will double check now).
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Karlsruhe - two 0:0 in this season, one home, one away, both with bochum (last 08.04.12)
Dresden - no 0:0 away mun1860 - detto duisburg - one 0:0 away |
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Yes, I get 3.6 - could you have used FSV Frankfurt's stats instead of Eintracht Frankfurt for the home side?
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this ssystem to be fair is sensational my friend
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munich 1860 is my bet from bundes 2 tomorrow.
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good luck with that but Im not going near that team again! Never seen a team so bad in my life!
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Tomorrow's qualifiers (in start time order):
Eintracht Frankfurt v Ingolstadt 3.6 Karlsruher v Dynamo Dresden 3.7 TSV 1860 Munchen v MSV Duisburg 3.5 Breda v Heracles 3.0 Hannover v Wolfsburg 3.8 Roda v Feyenoord 3.6 Valencia v Rayo Vallecano 4.1 Man City v West Brom 3.5 Wigan v Man Utd 3.3 Wolves v Arsenal 4.8 Heerenveen v Ajax 4.8 |
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dickiebyrd 10 Apr 12 21:13
this ssystem to be fair is sensational my friend I think it has to be judged over a long period of time. |
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joci, yes, i did mistake on that data (fsv/eintracht) It is 3.6
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Start Bank £10.00
001 Sheff Weds v Oldham 0.5+ goals £10.00 @ 1.05 [3-0] 002 Go Ahead Eagles v Dordrecht 0.5+ goals £10.47 @ 1.03 [4-2] 003 Spurs v Norwich 0.5+ goals £10.76 @ 1.04 [1-2] 004 Young Boys v Lausanne 0.5+ goals £11.17 @ 1.06 [1-3] 005 Emmen v Telstar 0.5+ goals £11.81 @ 1.04 [0-2] 006 Malaga v Racing Santander 0.5+ goals £12.27 @ 1.05 [3-0] 007 St Pauli v Union Berlin 0.5+ goals £12.85 @ 1.05 [2-1] 008 Mainz v Koln 0.5+ goals £13.46 @ 1.05 [4-0] 009 Barcelona v Getafe 0.5+ goals £14.10 @ 1.02 Bank £14.36 010 Karlsruhe v Dynamo Dresden 0.5+ goals £14.36 @ 1.06 |
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Ajax works on my system too, what about PSV's game?
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Only 2.3 prediction for PSV game.
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wow that's surprising. 4th against 9th, PSV highest goal per game ratio, not had a 0-0, Wajiwick (or however you spell it) also have not had a 0-0, 18 goals in last 5 meetings. I've got no dutch matches anyway
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And schalke vs Nurnberg should have a goal
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For example Real Madrid v Valencia
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and that is the why the bank will be divided.
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JOCI, sent you message on here, please read..or do you prefer e-mail
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woo man - I agree with what you're saying in principle. The system has to be proved better than chance, and if you're backing 1.05 shots (on average) then you'd expect to get a run of 20 correct. Anything more than that and it's likely you're outperforming 'chance'.
However, to avoid the 'wipeout' scenario you talk about, the aim is to split the bank after a certain point e.g. after the original bank has been doubled, to ensure you're not risking all on a single game. Going back a while, I did one or two of these and managed to get 5 or 6 banks going and managed a couple of good runs by not risking all. Then, you just have to be disciplined. |
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Start Bank £10.00
001 Sheff Weds v Oldham 0.5+ goals £10.00 @ 1.05 [3-0] 002 Go Ahead Eagles v Dordrecht 0.5+ goals £10.47 @ 1.03 [4-2] 003 Spurs v Norwich 0.5+ goals £10.76 @ 1.04 [1-2] 004 Young Boys v Lausanne 0.5+ goals £11.17 @ 1.06 [1-3] 005 Emmen v Telstar 0.5+ goals £11.81 @ 1.04 [0-2] 006 Malaga v Racing Santander 0.5+ goals £12.27 @ 1.05 [3-0] 007 St Pauli v Union Berlin 0.5+ goals £12.85 @ 1.05 [2-1] 008 Mainz v Koln 0.5+ goals £13.46 @ 1.05 [4-0] 009 Barcelona v Getafe 0.5+ goals £14.10 @ 1.02 [4-0] Bank £14.36 010 Karlsruhe v Dynamo Dresden 0.5+ goals £14.36 @ 1.06 All 9 games have so far delivered 1.5+ goals, and 8 of 9 have delivered over 2.5 goals. 4 out of 9 have had 3.5+ goals. |
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What do you aim to split the bank at?
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Initially, when I reach £20 (double my start bank), which should be around bet 18 at the current rate of things.
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not bad 43.6% increase on initial bank. I think £30 would be good to split, keep the original £10 as reserve and use the £20 to carry on then when you get the £20 up to £50 reserve another £10 so you have doubled initial investment and have it "stored" then carry on with the £40 etc
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Might consider that.
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I added another couple of features / calculations to the spreadsheet last night after a brainstorming session with the Lord of Goals, as an extra couple of checks to my original selection methodology. If all three confirm a bet. then those will be the strongest selections going forwards.
I applied these to the Budesliga2 games from yesterday, and was interested to find that for the Braunschweig v Greuther Furth game (ended 0-0), one of the new calculations came out with a prediction that there was a 21.3% chance of a 0-0 result. This was much higher than the other games in the league that day e.g. Fortuna Dusseldorf v FSV Frankfurt only 4.4%. The Lord of Goals and I both thought that was interesting (even if no-one else does)  .Of my two original qualifiers from the Bundesliga2 today, namely Karlsruhe v Dynamo Dresden and TSV 1860 Munchen v MSV Duisburg, the predictions are as follows: Karlsruhe v Dynamo Dresden - prediction 3.7 goals (4.6% chance of 0-0) TSV 1860 Munchen v MSV Duisburg - prediction 3.5 goals (2.0% chance of 0-0) So one has a higher total goal expectation, but also a higher expectation of a 0-0 result. time-to-tip - is that maybe why you favour the TSV game? Incidentally (and at this stage I'm not sure what percentage chance means a 'good' chance), but the following have relatively high chances of 0-0: Eintracht Frankfurt v Ingolstadt (10.7%) Erzgebirge Aue v Paderborn (12.2%) Need to get the head round it a bit more! |
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It is interesting.
For e.g. Erzgebirge Aue - Paderborn = the two teams have almost similar stats (data entered in spreadsheet). Aue don't score much at home and Paderborn don't concede many away. Those stats are under league average. Strongly fancy 0-0 or 1-1 |
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Yup, i dont know how you made the calculation about working out the %, but for me 1860 munchen has the least likeliest of a 0-0
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Tomorrow's qualifiers in approx start time order (goal prediction / chance of 0-0)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Ingolstadt 3.6 / 10.7% - no longer a qualifier Karlsruher v Dynamo Dresden 3.7 / 4.6% TSV 1860 Munchen v MSV Duisburg 3.5 / 2% Breda v Heracles 3.0 / 2% Hannover v Wolfsburg 3.8 / 2% Roda v Feyenoord 3.6 / 7.7% - no longer a qualifier Valencia v Rayo Vallecano 4.1 / 5.3% - now a 'borderline' qualifier Man City v West Brom 3.5 / 3.5% Wigan v Man Utd 3.3 / 12.5% - no longer a qualifier Wolves v Arsenal 4.8 / 1.6% Heerenveen v Ajax 4.8 / 10.2% - no longer a qualifier Ath Madrid v Real Madrid comes out with a very high % chance of a 0-0. |
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I mean today's qualifiers now, of course.
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oh wow, you did a good job with adding 0-0 percentage prediction
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Only if it proves to be accurate.
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does it implement the chance of real madrid having 2 consecutive 0-0's? must effect it in some way atleast... would be surprised if all the names and talent they have they fail to hit the net in 180 minutes between them
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Rather than concentrating on goal scoring power, it looks at defensive ability.
Ath Madrid appear to be very strong defensively at home. They've conceded 0 or 1 goals in 12 out of their 15 home games (8 clean sheets). Real Madrid have very similar stats away from home. So, we have two good teams defensively. |