Darts
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Festive greetings one and all. Bored tonight waiting on Santa to arrive so thought I'd put this up early as I might not be around much before the 27th
Justin Pipe v Devon Petersen:
R1 - Pipe bt Arron Monk 3-0
Ave: 87.85
180's: 2
CO%: 43%
HC: 61
Legs played: 12
Petersen bt Steve Beaton 3-1
Ave: 85.67
180's: 3
CO%: 30%
HC: 141
Legs played: 18
Opening match of the afternoon sees Pipe take on the Cobra from South Africa. Both were involved in pretty low quality affairs in R1 and I'm not overly hopeful this is going to be a high class encounter. Pipe came through pretty easily against a woeful Monk and the draw has actually opened up for him to get a decent run. His slow style is well known to all fans and it's a shame as he is actually a fairly decent player. Petersen on the other hand is the future of darts if you believe the sky hyperbole and ignore his mid 80's average. He won against Beaton but the match was ordinary at best and his best chance of a win is another scrappy encounter. I've had a look at the prices and I'm struggling to find any value on any market. As such I'll wait for more attractive bets later in the day.
Recommendation: No Bet
Ian White v Richie Burnett:
R2 - White bt Kim Huybrechts 4-3
Ave: 98.39
180's: 9
CO%: 52%
HC: 115
Legs played: 30
Burnett bt Andy Hamilton 4-1
Ave: 95.91
180's: 9
CO%: 34%
HC: 81
Legs played: 21
Actually looking forward to this match between 2 in form players. Both have been well into the 90 averages in both wins and they've featured in some really high quality matches to get here too. White raced into a 3-0 lead in R2 only to be pegged back but he held his nerve and deserved his victory. Burnett on the other hand was always in control v Hamilton and I think most people on here were delighted to see him win. I'm actually surprised Burnett is the rag here based on experience but I think the market is reading a lot into the White win over Huybrechts. I also like the look of maxes based on Burnett in both matches and White in R2. Throw in the fact I can see this going 6 or 7 sets and there's a lot in its favour.
Recommendation: 1pt win Richie Burnett @ 13/10 (365) & 1pt win over 12.5 maxes (general)
Wes Newton v Robert Thornton:
R2 - Newton bt John Part 4-0
Ave: 92.19
180's: 5
CO%: 44%
HC: 119
Legs played: 17
Thornton bt Beau Anderson 4-0
Ave: 98.89
180's: 7
CO%: 43%
HC: 120
Legs played: 14
Last game of the afternoon sees a battle of 2 fairly closely matched players. Both won easily in R2 and both are fancying their chances now Taylor is gone. Newton was unhappy at his perceived lack of respect given by the so called experts but it's not like he's a multiple major winner chucking 100+ averages every match. He won at a canter v Part but he averaged 92 and while it might win some games it's not gonna cut it at the top level all the way through. Thornton was really impressive in his win given he was seriously under the weather and as long as he is over that I really fancy him to do a job on Newton. I think he's been playing well for 6 months and I don't think Newton has but even at their best I think Thornton is a better player. He scores heavier and I think he finishes better too so all in I think he is set for a QF place.
Recommendation: 2pt win Robert Thornton @ 4/6 (General)
Simon Whitlock v Kevin Painter:
R2 - Whitlock bt Jarkko Komula 4-0
Ave: 95.3
180's: 5
CO%: 46%
HC: 92
Legs played: 17
Painter bt Paul Nicholson 4-0
Ave: 91.59
180's: 3
CO%: 50%
HC: 116
Legs played: 17
First of the evening matches sees the aussie take on everybody's favourite snarling darts player King Muttley. They both had easy wins in R2 but Painter was definitely flattered more by his as Nicholson was well in the match but Painter simply took his chances and finished well. Whitlock is hard to get a handle on and I think the only guarantee here is he will leave 170 finishes on about 4 occasions. I think if Painter is to win here he will have to finish as well as he has in his first 2 matches but who's to say that won't happen. Thought we might have got a slightly bigger price about Muttley and at 2/1 he's probably about the correct price. As such I'll give it a miss and see what happens in play.
Recommendation: No Bet
Peter Wright v Michael Smith:
R2: Wright bt Per Laursen 4-2
Ave: 98.04
180's: 2
CO%: 38%
HC: 104
Legs played: 24
Smith bt Phil Taylor 4-3
Ave: 94.55
180's: 6
CO%: 36%
HC: 141
Legs played: 31
Big match for Smith who tries to follow up his win over the GOAT with a match v forum legend Peter Wright. I missed the match where Smith beat Phil on Friday night but by all accounts it was an odd match given that Phil missed numerous chances and Smith somehow fell over the line. His average was good but it was absolutely dreadful in the first match so who knows what he will produce. What I am sure of he will have to play well as Wright is becoming more and more consistent. It's odd given his first 2 matches I don't think he's done anything special but he's walked off averaging almost 100 in both of them. I think its testament to his improvement that he is achieving these results while looking like he has a bit left in reserve and I fancy he will continue that here with a win over Smith. Looks about the right price on outright but I think he can cover the h'cap line too so will have a small bet on him to do so.
Recommendation: 1pt win Peter Wright -1.5 sets @ 4/5 (General)
Ray Barneveld v Mark Webster:
R2 - Barney bt Jamie Caven 4-3
Ave: 99.65
180's: 6
CO%: 44%
HC: 115
Legs played: 32
Webster bt John Henderson 4-3
Ave: 92.23
180's: 7
CO%: 47%
HC: 157
Legs played: 33
Last game of the day sees an oddly resilient Barney take on former world BDO champion Webster. I've been surprised by Barney's attitude of late as this week especially he doesn't seem to have been shaking his head as much. He played really well in beating Caven as it would have been easy for him to roll over but he stuck in and ultimately deserved his victory. Webster survived match darts v Henderson in a highly enjoyable game on Sunday evening and he's looking to be playing a bit better than he has of late. He's got experience of beating Barney here too although it was in the largely forgettable 3rd/4th play off they introduced a few years back but it does prove he has it in him. I'm hoping this goes a few sets as the bet I like is the HC and the more legs the better the chances. Both are capable and Webster has covered it in both matches thus far so hoping it's 3rd time lucky.
Recommendation: 1pt win over 130.5 HC @ 5/6
Summary: Looking forward to christmas being over and the darts getting back into full swing again. I fancy a few bets here so hopefully enough cop to make a few quid and we can have some fun along the way. All bets and views are as welcome as ever and hopefully everybody has a great christmas.
Best wishes to all the regulars and their families
HH
Justin Pipe v Devon Petersen:
R1 - Pipe bt Arron Monk 3-0
Ave: 87.85
180's: 2
CO%: 43%
HC: 61
Legs played: 12
Petersen bt Steve Beaton 3-1
Ave: 85.67
180's: 3
CO%: 30%
HC: 141
Legs played: 18
Opening match of the afternoon sees Pipe take on the Cobra from South Africa. Both were involved in pretty low quality affairs in R1 and I'm not overly hopeful this is going to be a high class encounter. Pipe came through pretty easily against a woeful Monk and the draw has actually opened up for him to get a decent run. His slow style is well known to all fans and it's a shame as he is actually a fairly decent player. Petersen on the other hand is the future of darts if you believe the sky hyperbole and ignore his mid 80's average. He won against Beaton but the match was ordinary at best and his best chance of a win is another scrappy encounter. I've had a look at the prices and I'm struggling to find any value on any market. As such I'll wait for more attractive bets later in the day.
Recommendation: No Bet
Ian White v Richie Burnett:
R2 - White bt Kim Huybrechts 4-3
Ave: 98.39
180's: 9
CO%: 52%
HC: 115
Legs played: 30
Burnett bt Andy Hamilton 4-1
Ave: 95.91
180's: 9
CO%: 34%
HC: 81
Legs played: 21
Actually looking forward to this match between 2 in form players. Both have been well into the 90 averages in both wins and they've featured in some really high quality matches to get here too. White raced into a 3-0 lead in R2 only to be pegged back but he held his nerve and deserved his victory. Burnett on the other hand was always in control v Hamilton and I think most people on here were delighted to see him win. I'm actually surprised Burnett is the rag here based on experience but I think the market is reading a lot into the White win over Huybrechts. I also like the look of maxes based on Burnett in both matches and White in R2. Throw in the fact I can see this going 6 or 7 sets and there's a lot in its favour.
Recommendation: 1pt win Richie Burnett @ 13/10 (365) & 1pt win over 12.5 maxes (general)
Wes Newton v Robert Thornton:
R2 - Newton bt John Part 4-0
Ave: 92.19
180's: 5
CO%: 44%
HC: 119
Legs played: 17
Thornton bt Beau Anderson 4-0
Ave: 98.89
180's: 7
CO%: 43%
HC: 120
Legs played: 14
Last game of the afternoon sees a battle of 2 fairly closely matched players. Both won easily in R2 and both are fancying their chances now Taylor is gone. Newton was unhappy at his perceived lack of respect given by the so called experts but it's not like he's a multiple major winner chucking 100+ averages every match. He won at a canter v Part but he averaged 92 and while it might win some games it's not gonna cut it at the top level all the way through. Thornton was really impressive in his win given he was seriously under the weather and as long as he is over that I really fancy him to do a job on Newton. I think he's been playing well for 6 months and I don't think Newton has but even at their best I think Thornton is a better player. He scores heavier and I think he finishes better too so all in I think he is set for a QF place.
Recommendation: 2pt win Robert Thornton @ 4/6 (General)
Simon Whitlock v Kevin Painter:
R2 - Whitlock bt Jarkko Komula 4-0
Ave: 95.3
180's: 5
CO%: 46%
HC: 92
Legs played: 17
Painter bt Paul Nicholson 4-0
Ave: 91.59
180's: 3
CO%: 50%
HC: 116
Legs played: 17
First of the evening matches sees the aussie take on everybody's favourite snarling darts player King Muttley. They both had easy wins in R2 but Painter was definitely flattered more by his as Nicholson was well in the match but Painter simply took his chances and finished well. Whitlock is hard to get a handle on and I think the only guarantee here is he will leave 170 finishes on about 4 occasions. I think if Painter is to win here he will have to finish as well as he has in his first 2 matches but who's to say that won't happen. Thought we might have got a slightly bigger price about Muttley and at 2/1 he's probably about the correct price. As such I'll give it a miss and see what happens in play.
Recommendation: No Bet
Peter Wright v Michael Smith:
R2: Wright bt Per Laursen 4-2
Ave: 98.04
180's: 2
CO%: 38%
HC: 104
Legs played: 24
Smith bt Phil Taylor 4-3
Ave: 94.55
180's: 6
CO%: 36%
HC: 141
Legs played: 31
Big match for Smith who tries to follow up his win over the GOAT with a match v forum legend Peter Wright. I missed the match where Smith beat Phil on Friday night but by all accounts it was an odd match given that Phil missed numerous chances and Smith somehow fell over the line. His average was good but it was absolutely dreadful in the first match so who knows what he will produce. What I am sure of he will have to play well as Wright is becoming more and more consistent. It's odd given his first 2 matches I don't think he's done anything special but he's walked off averaging almost 100 in both of them. I think its testament to his improvement that he is achieving these results while looking like he has a bit left in reserve and I fancy he will continue that here with a win over Smith. Looks about the right price on outright but I think he can cover the h'cap line too so will have a small bet on him to do so.
Recommendation: 1pt win Peter Wright -1.5 sets @ 4/5 (General)
Ray Barneveld v Mark Webster:
R2 - Barney bt Jamie Caven 4-3
Ave: 99.65
180's: 6
CO%: 44%
HC: 115
Legs played: 32
Webster bt John Henderson 4-3
Ave: 92.23
180's: 7
CO%: 47%
HC: 157
Legs played: 33
Last game of the day sees an oddly resilient Barney take on former world BDO champion Webster. I've been surprised by Barney's attitude of late as this week especially he doesn't seem to have been shaking his head as much. He played really well in beating Caven as it would have been easy for him to roll over but he stuck in and ultimately deserved his victory. Webster survived match darts v Henderson in a highly enjoyable game on Sunday evening and he's looking to be playing a bit better than he has of late. He's got experience of beating Barney here too although it was in the largely forgettable 3rd/4th play off they introduced a few years back but it does prove he has it in him. I'm hoping this goes a few sets as the bet I like is the HC and the more legs the better the chances. Both are capable and Webster has covered it in both matches thus far so hoping it's 3rd time lucky.
Recommendation: 1pt win over 130.5 HC @ 5/6
Summary: Looking forward to christmas being over and the darts getting back into full swing again. I fancy a few bets here so hopefully enough cop to make a few quid and we can have some fun along the way. All bets and views are as welcome as ever and hopefully everybody has a great christmas.
Best wishes to all the regulars and their families
HH
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Replies: 1,791
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smith most maxes against snakebite at 6/5 with pp seems fair to me. Havent looked at the other matches in depth yet but that was the one that immediately stuck out to me.
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I always seem to get sucked into the Wright hits a lot but he just seems to hit constant 140's and 100's. If he uses the thicker barrelled darts again thats a fair shout on Smith
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Christmas is slightly anti climatic without darts
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Wake up yer feckers Santa's been!
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I thought I'd bring some good tidings to you gents with a Crassmas present for all...I managed to get Evens for Wright to hit just four maxes against Smith (which is a blatant rick) and my main concern is not what HH correctly states about the constant 100/140 scores or even the new & thicker barrels, but the fact that it could be a case of "after the Lord Mayor's Show" with Bully Boy as I fear a far too comfortable win for Snakebite.
If it goes six sets then it'll take something hugely unlikely to fail but as you all know, that's what happens when the money's down - Barry Dennis once stated that God is a bookie  I'll be hoping Smith can win one of the first two sets to at least make a match of it as I'm confident that Wright would rally for everyone's tournament outright winner bets. Betting wise, after some first round disappointments for me (Barneveld & Anderson yet again, so I've only myself to blame) I've won a fair few ton for smallish stakes and I've loaded up on this Wright bet for an even £300 - that's probably why they've given that price a haircut but it's still an extremely generous, in fact, foolish 5/6 (3.5+) considering it's a general 10/11 for 5.5+ - get on guys  Like Andy Hamilton a few nights ago, I think Justin Pipe is definitely one to swerve for multiple bets at a crazy 1/6 (as bewildering as Wade's 1/12 quote) as he's been way below par recently. I'm hoping for a better show from Devon and the recollection of his sterling effort against Gary Anderson at this stage two years ago gives cause for optimism...he could provide a shock if he's not affected by Pipe's procrastination. Finally, of all the players that we see on TV, Mark Webster more than any other is the one I figure is showing just a fraction of his true ability and that last gasp victory against Henderson could be the ignition for a resurgence - they're ALL confidence players but this guy strikes me as someone who'll get more impetus from a tight win than anyone else. It's more in hope than expectation but as I've backed Devon (250/1) & Webster (66/1) to win their quarters, I'm very hopeful though I could've done with Andy Smith putting Wade out as that'll be Petersen's next opponent if he masters Pipe. In their QF's it's likely they'll be getting ransacked by Lewis & MVG so just WTF am I getting excited about?  I always have withdrawal symptoms over this ugly hiatus from the Ally Pally action so my Xmas night will be spent watching the Webster/Henderson & MVG/McDine matches again as I was in the boozer and missed patches of those games |
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PS - the price is available with Spórting Bet...don't shoot the messenger if it fails as I'll be devastated
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This mvg over celebration for winning a leg is boring & ott. Is he mimicking a monkey riding a greyhound? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIUQB72EzDE
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NG, sporting have a habit of pricing up spreads of Under/Over lower. (i.e 3.5) when everyone else are 5.5.
Many bookies follow/copy blindly with their odds. At least sporting are first with prices on several darts events - Lead not follow. Which leads nicely into a pun: "You can lead a horse to water, but a pencil must be lead" |
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hope king john is on every day now, and hope he turns up bob on time
http://s84.photobucket.com/user/lorinda11/media/johnparttaxi.jpg.html |
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 Every pick tells a story. I never tire of this one - forum fav & h20 |
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I said the evens for Wright to hit 4 maxes had got a haircut into 5/6...now it's a No.1 - right into 2/5.
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Hope everyone's having a good christmas - I'm all turkeyed out - Far too many nuts n chocs.
NG, Wright Over 3.5 180s has been smashed into 2/5. 7/4 Unders makes for a tidy hedge fella. I've spent this evening doing me brains in, breaking down current match stats as well as a bit of archive viewing (for something to do) Counting the hrs til tomorrow's marathon day of darts! I hear Phil Mitchell's brought in east end boy Danny Dyer to run the Queen Vic to sort out its rowdy punters. Get out of my pub ya ****g slag  |
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Into the business end of the championship now which can usually be quite profitable once all the lesser players have ben knocked out. 3 Standout bets for me tomorrow:
1. Thornton most 180's v Newton @ evs: Thornton when on form is an excellent 180 hitter, Newton can be hit and miss on them. Some days he hits them for fun but when the pressure is on he can snatch the last dart and the way his darts lie in the treble bed the first 2 can block the last dart and deflect it into the 5 bed. If it goes 6/7 sets I expect Thornton to have double the amount of 180s as Newton. 2. White v Burnett over 12.5 180s @ evs as picked by HH above, 2 of them can hit them for fun and should be a close match with loads of legs. 3. My last pick is Smith most 180s v Wright @ 11/10: This is my NAP of the day especially if Wright is using the "Phil Taylor darts" he used in the last round. Smith was banging in 140s for fun and hit 6 maxes against Taylor, if he can get his first dart right early on he could easily hit double figures on the 180 count. |
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WHAT TIME DO WE KICK OFF? I can't wait!!
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12-40 no?
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yeah Pipe at 12.45. Probably be finished about 3.30pm
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might snakebite now turn up with his old darts,he was using darts that looked like phil taylors in the last round,but is it possible that he might have done that to get into phils head as he was his expected opponenent in this round,or am i looking to deeply here for his reasoning.yes ss1 starts at 12.30 for the afternoon session.
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you might have to go back to work before the pipe game ends hh as devon does not look the quickest either
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Nah I think he thinks it's going to help him improve Scarey so think he will be using the same arrers again
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how long do the third matched go on for?
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he looks like he would average over 95 with rusty nails to me at the minute.
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Agreed
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whats the weather like up your way hh,its wild as out here again.
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Windy mate and scattered showers. It was bad during the night dunno how strong the wind was but I was glad I was in my bed
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me to,i have had an expensive christmas,some scrote put a root kit in my computer and trying to take it back to as it was new by formating it knackered it completely,so i have been in a bad mood for days.hopefully the darts will cheer me up today.
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so wes complains that everyone is overlooking him for the title
everyone responds by backing thornton to beat him at 4/6 and topping up on thornton to get more 180s, labelling newton as a bottler against the quality players that'll please wesley |
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Just read on Dave Wholey's twitter page that Wes has only won 3 of his last 17 matches v top 10 players. Basically confirms what I thought he rarely loses to players below him but rarely beats players above him. Strongly fancy Thornton today he's just a better player in my view
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i would want to know how thornton is health wise myself.he looked like he had bubonic plague when last sighted.if he is still unwell then a long match that is quite possible imho would not favour him.
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said in today's paper he feels fine now just a bit tired
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Sounds like thorn's been on the midnight roulette wheel again
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Looking for Devon to make a game of it as i have Pipe boring him into submission by 4-1 sets. On the other hand i fancy Pipe covering the 180s spread? Best be careful before i morph myself into dr rod.
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wes wouldn't have beaten kjp but for a stupidly high checkout % early on
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lay Pipe for starters I think. small stakes for a bit of fun
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I don't think Pipe's pace will suit Devon, but equally, I certainly couldn't back Pipe at 1.18!
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Peterson 2.3 to make the +2.5 sets handicap looks a reasonable place to start today.
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Pipe Over 4.5 180s @8/11 SJ. Sly go 4/7.
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bit mean of them to stuff a pillow up johns shirt
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I agree Marychain. I'm on Peterson +2.5 along with White and Newton +1.5 GLA
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Think Pipe will beat Peterson today, at around 1600 BST. Agree with everyone on Newton, he hasnt got that change of gear needed when he plays the better players, which Thornton is. I expect a comfortable win for the Thorn and think he can go all the way to the final now Taylor is out. Ive been impressed by Ian White so far and think he might just edge out Richie Burnett, a long game with lots of 180s.
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