TdF 2017 Stage 17

This is the first time in the Tour's past three editions where the Col d'Izoard has been used in the finale or as the summit finish to the stage. Both in the 2014 177km stage 14 edition, and the 200km 2011 stage 18 edition, the Izoard had been used in the middle of the three categorized climbs, not at its conclusion. 

In 2014 Majka won what was regarded as the queen stage, when he attacked the remaining riders of the early 17-man breakaway with some 10kms to-go. The race for 4th-place was won by Pinot when he came home stronger than Bardet after a tough fight between the two FRA riders.

In 2011 Andy Schleck attacked on the Izoard out of the select peloton and with some 60kms to-go, to solo to victory, using satellite teammates up the road. It was a magnificent tactical move by Leopard Trek, and it was a dream day with brother Frank finishing in 2nd-place.

I think it is expected that a large breakaway gets off the front, which is very likely to include Bling as he seeks to cut his difference to Kittel in the Points classification to only 9 points. Barguil was 8/1 at SP and has gone into the outright favourite at 6/1. This is based on his likely involvement in the breakaway for the considerable KOM points on offer, particularly on the summit finish, although perhaps not defending his lead against De Gendt and Roglic so much as neautralizing GC contenders KOM involvement. The GC contenders like in 2011, 2013, and 2015, were involved in the KOM competition, even in 2014 when Majka won it they were involved. GC involvement whilst not surprising, nevertheless can cause a flurry of movements on the classification table and Barguil/SUN are aware that by winning these stages with double points on max points summit finishes, will allow a rider like Froome, upon winning the stage, to close the gap to Barguil to 42 points.

Attacks are likely to be launched by Bardet and Aru, so SKY will maintain a high tempo to prevent attacks from forming. If ALM have a plan it's likely to be the similar approach of their stage 9 ride, with forward satellites for Bardet. This would also match what Leopard-Trek did, so ALM may feel inspired. I think Bardet is looking strong coming into this portion of the race and SKY know it, so am expecting all hands on deck, and hard riding from SKY to give the young FRA rider a tough outing. From Aru I can only envision a very late attack for a handful of secs on the final climb, so whilst a threat, less likely of one than Bardet. I don't see Uran as a major threat at all, although he is riding in career-best form. We may not have seen much from Froome off the front and plenty to suggest some weaknesses, however on the stage 15 where he suffered from his mechanical, the ride to rejoin was impressive and if it was conducted off the front it would have been race-winning, under the right conditions.

In conclusion; the breakaway's chances are less likely on account of SKY monitoring the situation and giving Froome's GC rivals a hard ride. ALM may have something up their sleeve and Bardet should be strong, however I'm convinced Froome is strong-enough to defend any attacks and he will go close, also. Froome to win (9/2 favourite at SP into 7/1) from Bardet (6/1 at SP into 8/1) unless ALM get something big organised for the stage win.

Good luck to all.