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New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
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PTTT, can see any play on Sunday from that rain forecast?
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i do not use the NZ metservice !!
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I currently have the western bank of rain stalling !!
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all so very changeable with each update, but sense an improved picture from yesterday !!
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yes, makes sense now
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Hopefully, we start on time on Saturday, with the radar clear, and the draw goes well above 2. But if we don't, draw will crash and I don't see it coming back.
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It is very changeable indeed.
It does appear to becoming a bit of a mess now. Not that i am weather knowledgeable. |
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https://www.yr.no/place/New_Zealand/Waikato/Hamilton/long.html
Changed for the worse too |
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This market and weather watching is starting to do my head in now. The market does seem to have settled down at the moment though which is a bit of a shame because I've been scalping it well today.
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Do you reckon the market reacts more to changing weather reports, which get published, than to the radar on which they are based, which us nerds have to search for and interpret?
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To my (admittedly untrained) eye the 3-day looks horrendous for Saturday and Sunday and into Monday. Recall how just a bit of "mizzle" in the air was enough to bring them off in Dunedin.
There was an England game in the summer where a huge bank of rain was coming in from off the coast of Ireland and the odds didn't react much until a couple of hours before play and then they just collapsed. I couldn't believe it at the time - it was like seeing a pile of money and simply ambling over to casually pick it up. As you rightly allude to, the bad forecast is more certain whereas barely hours ago the mere fear of a bad forecast that still had time to change was enough to bring the market to it's knees. I really don't get it. As PTTT says, it's all about market sentiment. |
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Because of all the early action over the forecasts it seems as if the Test Match itself doesn't matter anymore. Everyone on this thread has probably amassed a significant "green" already. I don't think I'll be risking mine on the game itself, too many swings and roundabouts.
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I'd love someone to define 'market sentiment' because it has to be based on something more than a hunch.
We may get to start on time and 7 wickets might tumble in that first session but i prefer to believe for now that a good chunk of overs will be lost. |
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Isn't there a game they have supposedly played in economics classes to illustrate market sentiment whereby people take turns bidding for a ten-dollar bill and conservatively start off with low bids but by the time the frenzy is well under way the bids soon start to exceed the actual face value of the bill?
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http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day
Is this not looking more and more grim.............. |
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As I say, not any good at reading radar for days hence but that looks like a **** load of rain, yes. I'm happy to take on some 2.2 as well as the 2s I got earlier and go to near £3k result red, if I get the chance. Of course there could be a six wicket morning session and a side bowled out in 55 overs but even then, I don't think the draw is dead whereas if a fair chunk of that rain hits, even if the game isn't a nailed on draw because of clearing weather later, hard to see how it won't trade back down at 1.5 or lower. Could even get a morning session of 80/1 then hardly any play for days.
Love Foinavon's post basically saying not to risk gambling on nasty uncertain stuff like cricket when you can bet on weather instead. I'm a little crazier and will try to bet on both! |
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2 is a value with the current forecast, latching on it
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it has to be value, if you had paid no attention to this match at all this week, then checked the weather forecast, then checked the market, you would just back the draw at evens without even batting an eyelid.
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agree
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looking at the 3 day rain maps i think there,s a chance we wont get much play on Saturday, theres a lot of showers floating around in front of the big mass of rain and as already mentioned it only takes a bit of drizzle to keep them off.
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even day 5 is worse looking than 24 hrs ago....i wonder if the wind will pick up,i aint got a clue on that front.
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2.2 now, with some big lays coming in
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Market made a piranha-feast out of that 9k lay at 2.2
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im sitting tight,they can feck off.......
 not getting sucker punched, take my chances.. |
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i am as well but its p1ssing me off, who is laying it FFS ?
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i wanted this yesterday or this morning...
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https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/sport/cricket/abysmal-weather-forecast-threatens-black-caps-hopes-squaring-test-series-proteas-in-hamilton-finale
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High Street are all still below evens.
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2.3
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scary shi t
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Wonder what happens when the 24 million from Lahore arrives...........
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Just woke up for a gypsy's kiss & backed another 5k at 2.2. That puts me slightly in the red on results but feels way too high based on my assessments
Met service have not updated for a long time now for Sat,Sun & Mon. Starting to vex me a tad, lazy feckers! Saturday looks worse now on the three day rain forecast and Sunday is Percy filth. |
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Maybe this is a low-cost thin-market preparatory move to sucker in more lay money for when the big money wants to back the draw.
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agree
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the forecast for the first four days has improved significantly, 5th day not great but 7 days away !!!
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can you put a link up for that forecast please PTTT
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I've had a few chunks of £1k at various prices from 2 up and am putting another order of £1k in at 2.3. I've had enough trading success on this that I might just be crazed with it and be taking far more risks than make sense but I can't see the draw price staying above 2s for the whole test without both a wicket fest first up and the weather not quite doing the damage it ought to.
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