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New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
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Replies: 2,994
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anyway that was the move i have been waiting patiently for, happy days....
perhaps it will surface again but only to get coshed imho |
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Not getting involved in the last 24 hours has worked for me here as i backed the draw at 2.3 yesterday. I have to say though that we've been speculating a bit too much and trying to get on the right side of each and every price move, instead of treating this just as a lttle pre-match activity to enter the game in a good position.
The toss, weather and NZ batting have to go a certain way for it to produce a result. And even if we get 3-3.5 days in, a draw is what I will back, instead of laying. Was never comfortable with the draw red the few times i have laid it so far. |
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i have completely messed this up, i have gone from a preety good green book to a pretty bad red book, my thoughts now are to just lump on the draw and leave it
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its back to the forecast that it was earlier in the week, if i had just trusted my judgement instead of listening to people on here i would be in clover.
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Not getting involved in the last 24 hours has worked for me here as i backed the draw at 2.3 yesterday. I have to say though that we've been speculating a bit too much and trying to get on the right side of each and every price move, instead of treating this just as a lttle pre-match activity to enter the game in a good position.
Spot On |
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My first bet in this market was a draw back at 2.8
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The reason for preferring to trade sports over financials is that, barring a fix, you have full information in sports cos you can actually see what is happening before your eyes. Once you start trading on interpretations of weather reports from various original and second-hand sources with seemingly random and unannounced update times you're back to the smoke and mirrors and guesswork of other markets. I think I won't bother getting too involved pre-match in future.
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The thing is VV, at no point during the last 5 days have i ever really though that this match wasnt going to be a draw and my first bet reflected that, but, by listening to other peoples opinions on here i have managed to get myself in the red on the result that i have always fancied. I have now lumped on at 1.86 and i am determined to leave it.
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I wish you luck, Dan. It's awful when you wreck a good position, we've all done it at some time.
I'm level green from an early trade when all the forecasts were leaning strongly in the same direction, now nobody seems to agree when the rain will come. My strategy is waiting and seeing what happens during the first day's play and if the draw goes out to well into odds against territory I will lay it as I think there will be time lost sooner or later (hopefully not too late). One thing I won't be doing is chasing prices down. Best of luck, mate. |
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*I will back it.
FFS sorry about that  |
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i still think we might get some rain today as well.
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I don't mind if we do. If the draw continues down I will stick with what I have, it will look a lot better for you too.
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It's already looking better
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When they wake up in NZ they will have a shock.
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Wednesday looks like a washout now as well.
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is anyone else looking at the live radar, the rain looks like it is heading straight for Hamilton
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I think they may well start but lunch time could be wet or just before...
I am still unsure but long term i am as i've always been......RAIN |
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at 1.6 i would not wish to back or lay.......
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Prior to toss price might the time?
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yeah, that rain coming down from the North looks like it will hit at some point.
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India 2.2 and up now.....
Pass the amphetamine............or not.....  |
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If they have prepared a hard bouncy pitch they must be mad
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A lot of conjecture out there, i ignore.
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what price the draw if that rain hits half an hour before the toss
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tough one, i wont consider that occurrence , but perhaps 1.44 or so.. think its a bit priced in already..
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Got rather too greedy there. Still back to green on the draw. I hope it's not a wicketfest day 1.
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I've so screwed this up by piling onto the draw lay at 2.2 or so. I was in clover if I'd just say it out. Very tempted to lay further at these low prices but will then be a draw train.
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I went to bed early and cashed out my 2.2 lay at 2.4.
Good job, as we are now at 1.6ish. Missed all the good stuff but still almost 5k green on all results. Not much more to do now as I don't want to back or lay at these prices,especially with how often the forecast is changing. |
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I think its not going to rain today or not get too much anyway. Am very surprised at the rain on Sunday now though so my book is looking a lot worse than it was but hoping for a start on time. Am off for my 8am run and back later to update what the radio is saying.
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ive been looking at all of them for the last two hours, it looks like theres rain coming down from the North
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I normally let bets ride while I sleep, but cancelled almost all of them this time. Wisely. I'd be in trouble I hadn't.
I doubt we will see any more than the odd shower today. |
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metservice have updated Sunday. Looking a whole lot better now...
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With the updated forecast looks like 3 days max, that's 13 wickets per day.
Going to have a big draw bet once I've had a cup of coffee and got my head screwed on Saffers bat first and they might as well shake hands NZ bat first and it could be a case of clenching for a few days and not looking at the Betfair odds!! |
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ok off for run.
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