Cricket
New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
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i know tyco, but if you look at the three day rain forecasts, the maps for sunday and monday show rain, are you saying those are wrong ?
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The maps actually show not that much rain either. The colours are confusing as what you would think is a lot of rain is actually not that much. I see Monday as the problem on the maps but Sunday looks reasonably clear.
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yr.no just updated a clearer Saturday and Sunday as well.
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And their Monday during playing hours is vastly improved.
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but what would I know. Got my lay in at 2.20 and 2.16 and going to let it run for a bit, play should start on time tomorrow and then anything can happen.
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you have scared me enough to cash out, but i still think its going to rain on sunday and monday.
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And the text forecast is still the same
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Im not saying its not going to. All I can see is whats on the radar and the forecasts.
The 2 hour increment forecast was showing rain on Sunday. 6am had .7mm 8am had .9mm 10am had .2mm and 12 noon had 1.1mm. That was at 5pm NZ time or 5 am Eng time today. So for mine it has improved. The 2 hour increment thing generally tends to overestimate the amount of rain but not always. Yes the text forecasts are better and more accurate. |
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I only know Saturday was showing no rain, and still isn't. Didn't take a look at Sunday. We'll know much more starting tomorrow :)
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I've cashed out too. When the market ground down to 2.0 early this morning I dozed off, expecting to wake up and find it comfortably penetrated, but was uneasy seeing it back at 2.3 again. It just feels like it wants an excuse to fly out rather than in.
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HI detraveller... yes Saturday was clear but Sunday had rain showing and now does not except for a bit late in the evening. So that is an improvement... but Monday still looks like the day of no or limited play.
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Looking at wunderground forecast, 12, 10 and 11mm of rain Sun, Mon and Wed respectively.
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Do they say when their model was updated last, though?
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6 min ago
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https://www.wunderground.com/nz/hamilton
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Draw price at 2.3 looking crazy low (should be around the 2.7 mark imo). Only a matter of time before it starts pushing out nicely.
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Well that just says when the web-page was last updated. What we don't know for sure is if that is when they last ran their model.
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Is it different to when you last looked, det? Many on here are a bit scathing about Wunderground, for whatever reasons.
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I have only checked it twice so far. They do show more rain than expected at times.
The forecaster said 'there will be rain, a lot of it. We just dont know where exactly' And that might be what is keeping the price down. |
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as it stands the forecast for days 3/4/5 is worse and days 1/2 are better from yesterday !!
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juce what's your verdict?
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days 1 & 2 look ok & then play it by ear after that.
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thats the way I see it too at this stage. Days 1 and 2 good and then we will see what happens. Lots more certainty now for days 1 and 2 so its a lay of the draw for me. Bed time.
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My current position is laying the draw at 2.2 but I've got plenty to play with
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and looks like NZ playing two spinners so might not be a green top !!
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One other thing is to use the Bay of Plenty 120 km radar not the 300km radar. Much more accurate! The 300km one can trick you into making bad decisions!!
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Wunderground is poor as they always over estimate the % chance of rain which is not a bad thing as you can look at it and take it with a large bag of salt.
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Tyco - with those rain radar colours do you find it best to largely dismiss the light blues and only worry about the greens, yellows, reds, etc?
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Hi Vardon, nearly off to bed... but I am not really an expert but I do tend look at the legend and see what the colours mean. So the blue for me are rather inconsequential
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It often looks a lot worse than it actually is! Greens and yellows are the proper rain & RED
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I'm a bit influenced by the "mizzle" we had at Dunedin so probably paying too much heed to the scale-end colours.
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It it amazing how much money you make/lose, way before a ball has even been bowled
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