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New Zealand v South Africa - 1st Test at Dunedin
New Zealand v South Africa - 1st Test at Dunedin
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Replies: 598
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Looks like NZ will be batted out of the game.
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I just can't see how NZ can win this now. They would have to bowl SA out for less than 300, then score 350 themselves, then bowl SA out reasonably cheaply again, then chase down whatever they are set on the last day when there is rain forecast. There are to many improbables there for me.
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A lot of assumptions there folks!
There is a scenario where SA get bowled out for less than say 350. NZ score close to 300 then SA batting under humid conditions and cloud on the 4th day get skittled for less than 150-180 leaving NZ a decent chance before they complete their usual capitulation. OK a big ask but as long as DK doesn't run away with it I shall be having a covering bet on NZ at around 12-13's if it is available. Somewhere my subconscious tells me a team can come back from these odds even if they do not go on to win. The big question is how much help will the pitch offer certainly to the likes of Morkel who may not be of much use if it does not help. Rabadabadoo will always be dangerous because of his pace. Will Philander get enough help or will he look a 130 kph trundler? McMaharaj may keep things tight offering the prospect of a draw. I am half inclned to try and nick 60 points off the draw and cash out at 2.4-2.5 I am standing on SA at 1.93 and quite happy with that but not a huge exposure. I expect them to win but the draw could challenge. I dont think too much time will be lost to weather au contraire Rodney it might help the ball move about. The comms also say the pitch is abrasive. I shall be watching tonight hoorah! |
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looking like a confirmed runway!
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My grandmother never sucked eggs, although she was fond of brandy, but the calculus is likely scenarios v overs left. Unless and until the day 5 forecast changes, it's unlikely enough overs for NZ to win. IMO of course.
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I dont think NZ will win either. I just put forward a scenario where they could. Should the conditons permit, swing the game could change very quickly.
I am interested to see how NZ bat and SA bowl. Ultimately I think that is where this series lies. |
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grammar!
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not been involved with test trading
 for a while, after initially backing the draw @5.3 was well happy to see it crash in the first over or two, got out @3.2 backed again at fall of 2nd wicket, left a price up to get out and went to bed, would have been unnerved by the 3rd wicket but well happy when looking at book this morning, wish it was always that easy two hours graft for a nice return |
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SA have gone nowhere in 90 overs. Need to let this one unfold..
Looks like NZ have called it wrong with 2 tweakers. |
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Rain?
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weather charts have recently updated !!
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i cant see any extra rain from what was showing before
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10 point jump maybe just inter day trading. Spooked me though. Might top up! Would love to see Wagner go after DK with a bumper barrage! Would be great if he got him too after DK had spanked 100 in even time!
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The site I use is now showing no rain and overcast on Sunday during hours of play.
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When I checked the score this morning I expected the draw to be shorter than it was (3.15 at the time) so I backed the draw for a smallish stake. It's come in a little and will be interesting to see what happens in the first session. Only one wicket after the initial flurry and we just don't know whether the rain threat will materialise day 5.
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Right, i need SA to bat all day please, thanks
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That would make things easier
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Looks like a complete road now!
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NZ pitches generally are day 2.
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The draw can take a bit from NZ for a while but I'm thinking it can't go too much lower than 2.5 unless SA pulls out a pointlessly slow grind. Oddly it's crept back up. I'd take some more on but am in one of those positions I don't want to spoil.
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I decided my exposure was too big on this. But have got it down now. I still think SAF win comfortably.
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what an absolute runway
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the draw is getting smashed into
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Oops, took on some draw at 3 but have become more careful about leaving large amounts up on not terribly liquid markets so just did £250 but then got a lay of £550 at 2.7 thinking I'd got £500 on. On the bright side, was toying with a big green anyway so not that much of a problem.
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someone just emailed me a pic of the pitch
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Where had you put your cash?
I had a big red on NZ, but thought better of it. I'm now green on SAF, with small reds on the other 2. Cool and cloudy last 2 days. We should see the ball move around. |
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nice deck..
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iPad thinks "in" should turn into "I need". Thanks iPad. After all, I wouldn't want to type in to mean in ever.
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deK will get the scoreboard moving along. Then it's just the bowlers.
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Philander is a good player, he could get a few as well
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Saffers have played long but haven't scored much...I think if NZ can bat well then they can put SA in pressure come second innings...but how many times have we trusted NZ batting and they have delivered???
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this is turgid stuff.
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I was just reflecting on my NZ lays a few minutes ago and realising that with the tail to come, SA could be all out for not many more than 300 not long after lunch, allowing Kiwis potentially to get a similar score in around 4 sessions themselves then leaving two days and a bit for a one innings match, assuming no rain.
Oh arse. |