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pxb
14 Nov 16 05:12
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
Another venue where we have a first Test.

Given we were expecting a bunsen for the 1st Test and got a road, I have no idea how to pre-match trade this, and unusually for me, leave it alone.

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Replies: 472
By:
Fatslogger
When: 14 Nov 16 07:22
Not sure I'd say the first test was a road, given that it was doing a lot by the final day and there could easily have been a result if chances had been held, certainly for England, although of course, you can't go too far with that sort of argument, as chances often are dropped and it was certainly a very flat deck early on.

There's an interesting and perennial question here thrown into extra sharp relief by the fact that this venue hasn't held a test before: what do you use to guide you when sample sizes for games, let alone tests at a round, are small and possibly not all that predictive even when recent anyway? Similar considerations apply to the teams. A look at England would tell you the side is woefully under prepared to tour the sub continent, was the first major team to lose to Bangladesh due to duff spin and equally duff top order batting only a bit over a week ago and should be losing heavily to an Indian side with a home record of near absolute dominance. Then you have a first test where India's much vaunted spin attack was outbowled by England's duffers and where its batting only just clung on under real final day pressure.

In summary, I've no clue either. Draw back to lay?
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 14 Nov 16 12:21
I think India are too short at 1.68 in an even contest. If India bat first though all bets are off! Need to see what type of pitch the curator has prepared. Might be worth a speculative punt on England again pre toss!
By:
Fatslogger
When: 14 Nov 16 13:09

Nov 14, 2016 -- 12:21PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


I think India are too short at 1.68 in an even contest. If India bat first though all bets are off! Need to see what type of pitch the curator has prepared. Might be worth a speculative punt on England again pre toss!


That India could win the toss and dominate on a dust bowl, giving a very different dynamic to the first test, is what's keeping me off a lay at 1.7 or so. That seems painfully short based on the test we've just had but would be quite a generous price for India at home recently more generally. Even then though, bear in mind that Kohli has won a lot of tosses in the games they've dominated, so a dustbowl test with England winning the toss could still be a very good lay of India. Perhaps I'll wait for the toss.

By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 15 Nov 16 12:32
90 Sovs Bedser Stand Upper Open!

I feel like I have been violated! But it is the 100th test at the Oval so I have gone for it on the first day as there will be celebrations and parades of former players no doubt!

The only problem I shall have is where to get some drinks in as the bar will not open till 11 and I really ought to be there before the start of play to see the show!

Have any of you betfair VIP's been invited?
By:
Captain Wurzel
When: 15 Nov 16 15:35
Definitely bars open at the Oval before 11 WD. I got there about 10.15 last year no probs getting a drink.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 15 Nov 16 15:47
Bring booze in with you man!
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 15 Nov 16 16:32
I was checking, you can bring in booze but not in glass containers or cans!

I wanted to get in for 10am to savour the atmosphere but drinking with breakfast when not flying is against my moral code. I figured I could get round this by having an early breakfast!

I like to have 3 or 4 pints by lunch just to get in the mood then start on the Kwality AAA Picnic with a kwality bottle of wine. The Ovalites are by far the most discerning of food punters I have ever seen I swear.

I will hold you accountable Captain if the bars are not open! I have a bad feeling about it. Might have to get a large packet of biltong!

I think it will be an excellent match between the two best Test Teams. I am looking forward to see the SA bowlers plus ABV and QDK. I hope it is a fast Oval pitch of auld. I think SA will have to drop Duminy to keep Abbott in the side when Steyn is back and to have a spare like Morkel is great news.

If England fill the berth at 4 with Butler or Billings the team is almost complete with Anderson then Wood as reserve.

Exciting times. Now I just have to find out how to exchange my RS500 notes!
By:
Injera
When: 15 Nov 16 17:16
Draw 5.7 Shocked

Considering what has just happened that's incredible. Must be an assumption of a dustbowl but this is another new venue ( I think..) so why would they want to prepare a 3 day pitch?
By:
Fatslogger
When: 15 Nov 16 18:47
It's hit 5.9 today. That seems seriously high. I'm having some 6 if I can get some. Unless it's an absolute dustbowl, that's a generous price.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 15 Nov 16 18:51
You would have to think there is an opportunity at that draw price.
By:
rob_dylan
When: 15 Nov 16 22:05
I was looking at buying oval tickets earlier but said you had to be a member. Is there a way around this?  I went in 2008 and wasnt a member.
By:
mafeking
When: 15 Nov 16 22:12
rob, there was a ballot for the general public after the members. that priority period ends on thursday after which i presume any remaining will go on sale to all comers. as we're not playing australia i guess they will still be available for most days. day 2 being a friday is always the most likely to get sold out
By:
rob_dylan
When: 15 Nov 16 22:25
Cheers mafeking
By:
Platini
When: 15 Nov 16 22:47
any idea why there's no market for outright series winner ?
By:
pxb
When: 15 Nov 16 22:58
any idea why there's no market for outright series winner ?

It's under the next match.

I told bf about this being wrong and confusing when they first started doing this, but got an f off and don't bother us response.
By:
Platini
When: 15 Nov 16 23:06
thanks. see it now.
By:
Captain Wurzel
When: 16 Nov 16 08:35
I will hold you accountable Captain if the bars are not open!




Bar under the stand on the east side of the ground was definitely open early last time I went in August WD.

Things may have changed - ( desperate attempt to cover ass ) Devil
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 16 Nov 16 12:02
rob_dylan
15 Nov 16 22:05

I was looking at buying oval tickets earlier but said you had to be a member. Is there a way around this?  I went in 2008 and wasnt a member.


Did I win on the Ballot?

rob, I don't think you need to be a member just register at kiaoval info@kiaoval-surreycricket.com

It would appear I got in on the ballot and tickets to the hoi polloi are available from tomorrow after 5pm Thursday 17th November.

Good luck with that. All the tickets behind the bowlers arms are gone or rather there are a few singles available only. You will end up square with the wicket so you might as well get slaughtered!
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 16 Nov 16 12:10
This is quite an interesting Test. The curators in India seem to be h9ighly independently minded thank God. I think rank turners are poor for Test Cricket but having said that I think England have the tools to beat India if they bat first.

India will be strengthened by the return of Rahul. Will England have the bottle to drop Duckett? I think not!

I think this game revolves around the toss. I am considering a jump on England again and cut losses if they lose the toss.

England are a good side and the introduction of young Hameed protects the middle order to enable them to do damage. The introduction of Butler adds another firework. That could be vital in low scoring matches.

The pitch is likely to turn during the game. I cannot see another draw.
By:
trader pj
When: 16 Nov 16 13:25
No chance of a draw on this pitch
By:
trader pj
When: 16 Nov 16 13:26
I really really fancy India here, especially if they do bring Anderson back as he's not played in months
By:
Fatslogger
When: 16 Nov 16 13:59
Don't know why you have the hots for Buttler, WD. He's not played any FC cricket in ages, let alone tests. He's a beast of a limited overs batsman but the only thing that would remotely make me consider him as a first batting reserve is that Ballance is the alternative. Don't think England will risk Anderson this soon, especially given that all the other bowlers did fine last test.

I'm expecting to end up laying the draw hard but I'm going to wait for hopefully a reasonable score in at less one, possibly both first innings. In the meantime I'm after a draw back, obviously, with my ambitions towards a price of 6 diminishing a bit. I'd now accept 5.8 or 5.9.
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 16 Nov 16 14:26
You have a point slogger but I just feel Butler has that X Factor. He can do it for sure. We just need to get him into the side and have a run. If he can do what he can with a white ball he can do the same with red ball. I also think he has a better defense than Duckett who is a walking wicket.

This thing really annoys me. England now have a very good side with an obvious weakness at 4, which, will not be addressed. I would liked to have had a look at Billings in India too as he fits the bill as well. Our spinners are not top notch but that is what we have, At some point with all the batting we have they need to have a look at Leach although I understand why they have gone for Ansari.

The top order batting has been problematic for so long but rather than change it, others took the blame. We were consistently talking about dropping Moen who was neither Arthur nor Martha but has proved to be a decent standard Test Match batsman ( although like most is vunerable to high quality short fast pitched bowling ) and more than a useful spinner, indeed is a wicket taker in helpful conditions.

India look vunerable to me at least until Ashwin and Jadeja get into the action with a helpful pitch. I think most of our batsmen are confident. The Indian batting while having a lot of quality does look brittle at times. I think they need to find a replacement for Saha who has been disappointing.

Again I tell you all you heard it here first Rishabh Pant 19yo wicketkeeper batsman. I would love to see him thrown in at the deep end in the Third Test if India lose here!
By:
Injera
When: 16 Nov 16 16:01
I would say Jonny could bat 4 (if not exhausted from keeping) and put Buttler at 7. That MUST be a stronger option than Duckett.

The ECB were keen on a couple of guys playing IPL and both Billings and Jos did well. Ok that's ultimately for one day stuff but that time in Indian conditions is priceless.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 16 Nov 16 17:39
Okay, I do get the arguments for Buttler at 7 with YJB replacing Duckett at 4 but he wasn't great in tests previously and I'd argue that was predicted by his bad record in FC cricket. I'd give Duckett longer, although I'm not at all sold on him as a test player either, I admit. If the argument for Buttler is one day excellence though, Duckett has done well in the one day game himself.

Draw has shortened a little. Shame I didn't get on at 5.9 or 6 (lots matched at 5.9) but you don't hit them all.
By:
trader pj
When: 16 Nov 16 17:52
it won't be a draw, irrespective of market fantasies
By:
Fatslogger
When: 16 Nov 16 17:56

Nov 16, 2016 -- 5:52PM, trader pj wrote:


it won't be a draw, irrespective of market fantasies


I don't see a draw either but I wouldn't be quite as confident as you seem to be. If the pitch is being correctly described as turning from day 2 though, we'll do well to see day 5. That doesn't mean that a trading position on the draw couldn't be profitable though, as it sounds like a reasonable to good strip to bat on first up.

By:
DAN1974
When: 16 Nov 16 17:58
No pre match bets for me here, the toss is vital, how early it starts turning is vital. I dont think it will be a draw but it may go a lot shorter so wont be laying that now.

I shall be up at 03:15, poised and ready Plain
By:
Fatslogger
When: 16 Nov 16 18:00
Really need to be up all night for NZ game (perhaps a nap over lunch) and poised to trade this one too. I fear that's not sustainable though. Damn this having a day job and a family business.
By:
Fatslogger
When: 16 Nov 16 18:00
As in the business of having a family and a job, not that I have a family business. That really would be unsustainable.
By:
DAN1974
When: 16 Nov 16 18:03
I'm going to watch the first hour of NZ then go to bed, i could really do with going full time at this and sleeping when necessary, trouble is with a family to support its to risky and , i imagine, would become to stressful.
By:
Injera
When: 16 Nov 16 19:29
It's easy in this relatively drawless era to say this won't be a draw.

After last week anything is possible though. Was it 6 centuries in the match?? Batsmen high in confidence, bowlers tired and the much vaunted India spin attack shown to be mortal after all.
By:
Charlie
When: 16 Nov 16 19:35
I've been pondering which is not at all like me. The greater wisdom appears to be it'll turn. If it does then who wins? (He who dares wins). Is it a toss thingy or do one of the teams have the best spinners and/or the batsmen who can handle them? There are far too many variables for me to work out so going for the highest odds which is, obviously, the draw.

By the time I wake up it will be lunch so draw should be ok.
By:
titleist
When: 16 Nov 16 19:45
What price the draw if whoever bats first finishes the first day 250/3?
By:
Injera
When: 16 Nov 16 19:50
Spinning pitches mean several things, often conflicting with one another...

Turn means batsmen play and miss more..
Turn opens up angles for batsmen to score..
Balls spin too much, missing the outside edge and the stumps..harder to get LBWs..
Turning pitches means fewer wickets to the quicks, especially caught in the slips..
Spinners have more close catchers in front of the bat and often force batsmen into more aerial shots, mistimed sweeps etc..


We saw in Dhaka that the balls that don't spin often bring the wickets. Consistent turn means the batsmen get acclimatised, up to a point. In Rajkot, the bounce was consistent too. The green tinge throughout the game meant plenty of moisture holding the soil together.

If this one is a much lighter colour, that could well be the clue it will fall apart later in the match..
By:
Charlie
When: 16 Nov 16 19:52
Injera, far too difficult for me to comprehend. Who wins?
By:
Injera
When: 16 Nov 16 19:53
From cricinfo..

Visakhapatnam is expected to offer more for the spinners, as it did during an ODI on New Zealand's tour last month, but the Andhra Cricket Association has publically promised a "neutral pitch".

On the eve of the match it appeared firm and true, without much grass, and is expected to play well initially before taking increasing turn. The last ODI played here saw New Zealand bowled out for 79, with Mishra taking 5 for 18, while Assam were dismissed for 69 in a Ranji Trophy match, also in October - although that was a different strip and down to variable bounce rather than spin.

The weather is set to be hot and humid throughout and a lush outfield may test the ability of both teams to generate reverse swing.
By:
Injera
When: 16 Nov 16 19:54
Charlie - I've no idea! Best to let it unfold for a day or 2.
By:
Charlie
When: 16 Nov 16 19:57
I listened to the video and the average was 272 and that was hard to achieve or whatever it said. Agree Injera that's it's best to let it unfold for a while but I don't have the patience for that.
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