Nov 14, 2016 -- 12:40AM, anxious wrote:

Not me Abberdonia he must have feelings for you

Nov 14, 2016 -- 1:07AM, tomtimtum wrote:

Was just thinking the same, very solid and organised

he's got a bit of 'mongrel' in him too, as the aussies say

Nov 14, 2016 -- 7:35AM, pxb wrote:

Aus only 2 down, behind still, and 2 extended days to go. Draw is starting to look like a runner. Although can't see Aus winning this.

My position has improved with some trading and obviously a fair bit of the draw moving in and I've gone flat on the draw to be green SA, although still have a large Aus red. By contrast to you pxb (and to the market), I see the Australia win as rather more likely than the draw. Either needs a lot of batting from Aus but with two extended days to come, it's feasible enough for them to win setting somewhere above 200 with enough time left that draw is a non runner. Assuming normal rates of scoring (fair enough with Warner gone), Aus about 200 on by close tomorrow. They'd need to score faster than that and some on day 5 to set up a declaration offering the carrot of 300 in 75 overs or so mid morning day 5 which does then give the draw real legs but I just don't see them lasting that many overs. Having said that, my analysis does seem to suggest that Aus will really struggle to set up a win without being bowled out and then managing to defend a fairly smal total somewhere under 300 so perhaps the prices are the right way round. SA should be shorter though either way.

Nov 14, 2016 -- 8:06AM, pxb wrote:

I see the Australia win as rather more likely than the draw. Either needs a lot of batting from Aus but with two extended days to come, it's feasible enough for them to win setting somewhere above 200 with enough time left that draw is a non runner.That's what I call a Goldilocks Score. Enough, but not too many.

I've already made a horrible Goldilocks play this test looking for the draw near 3s.

With a long time left, Aus could up the scoring rate if they bat really well but with so much time left, they similarly can't really afford to take many risks until they're say 150 ahead if only 3 or 4 down well after tea tomorrow and even then it could backfire.