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New Zealand v Sri lanka 1st Test Dunedin
New Zealand v Sri lanka 1st Test Dunedin
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Replies: 462
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Dear oh dear, should have left that.
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Yes, a bit too risky given the context of what they are trying to do. Ideally, these two need to get to close of play now.
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Just for a change, a wicket the ball before they take them off.
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Radars aren't that reliable where it's more mountainous, which it is here, but I'd expect the radar to pick up rain coming along the coast.
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stumps
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can't rule out more interruptions tomorrow
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And the draw has shortened nicely. Made several mistakes in this match including the declaration timing, but may still get a modest profit.
This aint going to a draw. |
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Play will start half an hour early tomorrow at 10am
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While computer generated forecasts are useful, the model that produced the 2-hourly graph today is just one of a number of resources used by our meteorologists and can differ from their analysis, presented in the text forecast at the top of the page.
Decodes to; They can look at the radar like any other mug. |
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If mendis was clever enough he could have faked a niggle and got physio on at the end of that over as rain was falling
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See the market has hardly changed from where it's been for most of the match. Have greened up for very little regardless of outcome. Been interesting with lots of potential so far, largely unrealised by me and looking forward to seeing the final unraveling tonight. Might have another plunge before the end depending on how things go.
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Have really enjoyed this game both as a match and a trading opportunity. I probably ought to green out, especially as I'm exhausted having spent most of last night up watching but I just don't see the draw being as short as 4.6-4.8 so not that tempted to cover my red yet. I do have a 5.5 lying about nobody has snapped up. Criticisms of my efforts include:
1. being too greedy to lay off enough my huge NZ green in a game I never saw them winning, especially given that I was planning to start when they hit 10s and didn't notice until they were below 8s before the first wicket fell and still only got a lay in for £50. In my defence, they didn't look much like losing a wicket and could have gone to 5s if they'd manage another 30 or so runs; 2. being too greedy with the draw backs as rain was hitting and lays when it was falling - could easily have got half a point better on both by just accepting what was up and not trying to be too clever; 3. not moving nearly fast enough when McCullum declared - there were some very juicy draw lays available at the time and I got caught thinking about it rather than acting on it. Happy overall though. |
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I stayed up later than usual but went to bed at the tea break. How much play did they get after tea before the rain arrived?
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Think was about 30m. They went to bed with 27 overs unbowled or so. Course they'll get some of them in tomorrow if the weather holds but surprised the Lankan price didn't go out further with it. They'd actually need to score at 3s to chase the runs down now and haven't sustained that at any stage. Also, three down already, with a long tail, even if they start really well they can't afford to step on the gas unless they've got say past tea only 4 down and even then they'd be a risk. Course some runs will just come but the Kiwi attack and fielding are both pretty parsimonious so unlikely they'll manage to go at 3s unless they bat really well. Mathews and Chandimal are both fairly dynamic, I suppose.
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There seems to b a bit of rain to sw not sure if that will hit Dunedin though
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Well done to those who backed SL at big prices.
I kept my red on them. Takes lateral thinking to back those huge prices and goes against all cricket knowledge. Makes perfect sense from a market point of view though. I must learn. I believe they came as low at 7s. |
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Yeah Srilanka came as low as 8.5 as far as i remember.
Can you guys tell me where i can learn about exchange betting? I know i could google it. But I read something along the lines that 'you could lose more than you stake' and that line really put me off. Would appreciate if you guys can point me in the right direction(Oh God I never knew id be calling gambling the right direction) and let me know if the above statement is true? |
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In spread betting you can lose more than you stake but not on this exchange.
Your total (potential) liabilities are clearly displayed on the screen. Start with a small betting bank and manage your stakes sensibly. i.e. 2% of your bank. Limit exposure and be careful. |
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What Injera says is correct.
I also backed SL at a big price (55) after having a large red on them for 2 days. Trading Tests can be profitable, but there is a lot to know. I'd recommend starting out with limited overs or soccer, small stakes and always stop when you are all green whatever the amount. |
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I don't expect much if any rain today and light won't be an issue this far south. SL's tail went at a decent rate in the first innings and a draw looks unlikely to me despite the required rate of 3, but of course any rain will change that.
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10am start today just be aware...
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Detraveller, when I bet on a Test match (it's all I do), whether back or lay I work to a Maximum liability of 5% of my bank. As the game progresses I work to reduce the liability (red) while hopefully retaining green on the winning outcome. Never be afraid to cut losses if things are obviously going wrong.
Start with small stakes and gradually build up as your bank increases (that's the theory) and you gain in confidence. I have never bust my bank doing this, perhaps I've been lucky!  |
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As Injera said, 2% of bank would be safer while you get the hang of it.
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Gosh, I've risked as much as about 15% of my bank on tests. I am an idiot though. Certainly I haven't taken a terribly sensible approach to bank management. I lost more than a third of my cash in one weekend once, culminating in a grand loss on a slightly stupid bet because I was on tilt to go from over 7k down to 4 and a bit. I was a bit unlucky too, mind. Took a while to rebuild from there.
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45 mins and NZ odds haven't changed. They have been stuck for the last few days. Got to explode soon
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required run rate not an issue here
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This isn't a draw without rain unless they both get Chandimal out relatively soon, certainly before half way through the day and fail to get anyone much else out. Seems a very narrow path to tread. Anyway, with a large SL green I think I'm relatively safe as likely that the draw will come in at the same time as SL, even if they're scoring a little slowly. This quick scoring is far better, of course.
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Gosh, I've risked as much as about 15% of my bank on tests. I am an idiot though.
Nah. I regularly max out my (in bf) bank. The reason I keep my bank below 5k is that when I see a favourable situation, I'd max out whatever I have available. But I'm a trader. |
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You like the excitement of the gamble Fatslogger, I used to be like that down the bookies before Betfair came along. Now I think I'm doing well if I win more than 35% return on investment (just under 2% of bank).
Thanks for the info regarding the rain last night by the way. |
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Maiden over from Santner
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I've only taken a pretty small amount of my profit out (to placate wife by paying for a few things, including a holiday), trying to avoid getting hit for the commission costs of putting cash in. So I've got about 25k in now. Was a bit more but not been a great weekend. I've also had the complication of my brother buying in for 10% as an investment, so I have to behave myself a bit. I avoided emailing him for a while after I lost 4K in a day a couple of weeks back.
I do like a bit of a thrill Foin, you're right, on cricket especially. The contrast with my football betting, which as I lay long odds stuff tends to be sudden losses of large amounts of cash or lot of stress then a small win, is good for me though. |
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It's not that impossible that the draw could be longer than SL this session, if they keep going. Chandimal is an attacking player and Mathews has quite a few higher gears once set. Tempted by another draw lay and a lot of red on that. Forecast looks pretty safe to me. Anyone disagree?
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FS, use bank transfer which should be free (it is for me). It also takes 48 hours to transfer for me, which stops me dumping money into my account when I max out. A sort of discipline.
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SL into single digits odds of 7/1
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Lowest price traded for SL 5/1
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Agree with you Fatslogger. If no weather disruptions I think the draw does noet have a chance. Plenty of 4 balls being bowled
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At the moment NZ bowlers aren't causing too much discomfort or trouble but the new ball in about 14 overs time could cause some trouble. Feel like if wickets fall, they could fall in bundles.
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