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Australia v New Zealand 2nd Test at Perth (the WACA)
Australia v New Zealand 2nd Test at Perth (the WACA)
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Replies: 401
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2 overs short of a perfect strike rate today. Had to cop a small loss there.
Start again. |
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You riding the draw down again? Pleased with my Australia back - just saw it at over 6s and would have gone in again but the wicket fell. There's still plenty of time in this game for a result.
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Was riding Aus up. Then got caught on the last one on the wicket. Then had a go on the draw for a small profit. Got out about an over before the next wicket.
Didn't wait long enough to start it when price was still too idle. And yeah, cracks opening up. 22 overs left today, and could well see Aus batting tonight yet. |
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Got a decent tip on ALMIGHTY ZEUS EW in the next at Albany if anybody keen.. Currently about 18s.
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Been a fair go for this Zeus.. im on at 18s..
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Not sure if Zeus got 3rd there.. head bob go.. ran better than an 18.0 chance
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Yeah. Caller called it, but didn't look like it.
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Is 13s now. I would have been tempted but, knowing nothing about horses, am guessing the value has gone.
Meanwhile in the cricket I took almost all my residual draw green out to lay for £125 (should have done more but too reluctant to kill my full spectrum of green) before Watling went. This is a hell of a long Kiwi tail so should probably do it again. Of course it could peter out, especially if the NZ tail hangs about for a long time but this looks at least evens for a result to me with quite a bit of time left. A bit will depend on how aggressive the Aussie batting and any potential declaration are but not impossible we could be going into day 5 with the draw totally impossible if either both sides are out fairly cheaply from here (this and Aussie second innings) or if the Aussies are out in a heap (effectively a wicket down already) and there's no way a positive result can be totally out of the market by then. |
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Got 3rd. Beauty.
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Reckon we are about to get a flurry of wickets here late on day 3.. ball reversing
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Lol, I know so little about horses the race had finished before I posted.
Anyone else got anything going from this position? |
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Back Australia lay/draw from here.. I think the tide is about to turn and the ball will start dominating this test match
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Didn't get matched high, had it take SP, 3.38 or so. Decent profit.
Cricket, think long term, draw probably a decent lay. But I am not comfortable taking a position here. Batting a few overs will send Aus right out. 17 overs left for the day, although lost 20 minutes earlier, so not sure if we get them all in. Bat the day out, draw probably 1.50ish |
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Mitch 0/100 not helping a result I guess.. Starc the only real threatening wicket taker
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Taylor the issue. He goes, Aus 2.40. Can easily take the strike and chew up the overs.
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Oh a side note.. how is Johno Wells 12th man.. the bloke literally looks like a cripple in the field
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No idea. Had to look him up. Questionable to say the least.
Says 27 years old. Last 3 games, made 179*, 198, 128, with 3 wickets. But playing in the state U23s. Think because he is in WA anyway, and just to give him experience maybe? |
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Probably, the bloke at the ground.
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I'm going level green on this. I don't have confidence in any outcome. Normally I wouldn't fancy NZ batting last. But Smith could well declare with a chaseable target and NZ could get it on this pitch.
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I'm looking at a dead loss at the moment. Not worth closing out and a big lay of Aus could be dangerous. Just have to stick with it and hope things improve. Still two days to go a lot could happen. Well done those who stuck with a draw back at big odds, cashed mine far too early.
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Winviz gives NZ a slightly better chance of winning, with the draw at 50%.
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Betfair should put up a market whether Ross Taylor makes a 300
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Anyway with 2 days to go on this game , Aussies should wrap up the innings before lunch for there to be any win/loss outcome. Draw should be favourite, I have not checked the odds but Smith will want NZ chasing at least 5.50 runs an over on a final day wicket , when setting an initial declaration ( WACA fast scoring should be factored into account). NZ will be forced to have a go at the target so it might be worth getting on them at anything double odds for a back to lay trade.
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Draw should be around 1.45 without looking at the odds
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ok I was off by a fair margin: Aus 4, NZ 7, Draw 1.62
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At the same time I don't think Smith would want to give any lenient looking chase, think he would want the 1-0 series win in the bag first. NZ will have a go at the target if the required rate is around 5.00-8.00 runs per over on a final day wicket. Smith and McCullum are aggressive looking captains that look to go for the wins.
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australia gotta make sure they don't lose the game first. even in tne best case scenario for them they'll starting their 2nd innings about level and time and time again you've seen the side batting 3rd make a mess of it especially if they go at it too hard early on. it's still a very inexperienced batting line up. totally different from going in with a lead of 100+ and warner smashing around like he often does
not sure new zealand will be too gung ho chasing a target either. they won't admit it the real series for them is when they get oz back over the tasman in the new year. they'll really fancy their chances of turning them over on home soil |
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Winviz gives NZ a slightly better chance of winning, with the draw at 50%
Hate to say it but I'm with Winviz on this. Clearly the draw is fairly likely but depending a bit of rr, it probably needs both of NZ lasting 95+ overs with 14 wickets left (and in several scenarios including probably in the morning, wanting to score quickly) and Aus lasting 80+ overs with 9.5 wickets. Neither of those is at all unlikely but equally, neither strikes me as particularly an over 3/4 of the time thing. I admit I say this having not seen any of the cricket, just listened a bit and followed online so I may be getting more excited about the odd ball misbehaving than I should be but sides pretty often collapse on days 4 and 5. Factoring in approach, including particularly how aggressively Aus will bat if in a strong position and how early or not Smith might declare is difficult. |
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Anyway, I've slightly bucked the psychological verities above and layed the draw to a mildly red position from a mildly green one. I did it partly hoping the tail would fall apart before close of play, so disappointed it didn't but could still all end in a rush.
I suppose I feel that it's far from impossible that either a NZ or Aus collapse could make the draw extremely unlikely at almost any point in the next 2 days, whereas it's only really if NZ bats on not getting that many runs that fast then Aus bats conservatively and doesn't lose wickets that the draw goes all that much shorter, before the final day. |
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Going to back AUS if NZ get taken early today. AUS scored 300 in 60 Overs 1st Inngs. What price they bowl NZ out on last day?
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NZ to chase down 350 in a days play I have AUS around 3.00, NZ to chase down 400 in a days play I have AUS around 2.84. Don't really know why my logic is behind that but I'd just be assuming that NZ would have all out attack at the target. WACA is a ground that is very difficult to just survive alone, you have to look to play attacking shots in order to survive. Hence, the run rates have been very high in this match
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Draw would still be the front runner
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Ross Taylor To score 300 runs or more? Thats paying 3.25 at the moment
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Remember Usman Khawaja wont be batting in 2nd innings, so Aus are technically 1 wicket down
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Only 1 batsman in the history of cricket has ever managed to score a triple ton against Aus
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Steve Smith is in the Michael Clarke mould, he is an aggressive captaincy, for some reason I don't think he will let this game meander towards a draw.
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NZ will want to try and bat as long as possible today, a 50-100 run lead , will be like gold for them.
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50% chance of a shower Tuesday afternoon. Could be just enough to kill NZ chances in a chase.
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Mark Taylor reckons that day would have made Johnson considering retirement....
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1 of 13 players in world cricket to take 300+ wickets and score 2000+ runs
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