Cricket
Australia v New Zealand 2nd Test at Perth (the WACA)
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Funny things happen on the last day of a Test.
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Greened out on draw with small Aus red (if lay at 6 gets fully matched) as don't see a result unless Aus collapses now. Don't see time for Aus win.
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Pxb, agree funny things happen on the last day of tests but don't think this test is going to be such a one. If Aus gets bowled out it's possible but a declaration could only really come at lunch tomorrow, or at best a bit before if lots of runs come and even that could be a risk. Setting say 270 in 65 overs doesn't offer enormous reward and does come at some risk with the hitting capacity in the NZ line up and the scoring rates this match so far.
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Winviz has a declaration before lunch tomorrow. I'm not buying it. I say a declaration after lunch - 320 target in 52 overs.
Smith won't want to lose this. |
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As I said earlier, limited upside for Australia in an aggressive declaration of say 300 (said 280 before but they've scored well) just before lunch leaving 65 overs to chase them. They'd be a bit scared of 3-5 in the order, with all those first innings runs and McCullum's potential to score big at a run a ball. Depends on how fast they score but if they leave 320 in 60 overs that's pretty much a closure.
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Why would the Aussies declare, until there is around 45 overs to go, there are 17 overs to go to the next new ball, so approxamatly another 65 runs there, just because both batsmen, have to get back in tomorrow morning. The likelyhood is one of them will get out, its hard to start again the next day, after scoring a 100 the previous day, although I do expect Smith to survive and carrying on batting, the other 6 wickets should take another 40 perhaps 45 overs , so expect Australia to bat for around 120 overs, to be all out. Aussies are 1 up in the series, they won't be giving New Zealand a tempter and only 21 wickets, have fallen in 4 days, so the chances of the Aussies taking 10 in 55/60 overs and leaving NZ 300 to win, would be just plain stupid, with McCullum and others around, who would be capable of chasing that down. I reckon they will bat until a lead of 350 is reached. 3 overs will be lost, due to the change of innings, as well, unless they declare or are all out at lunch time tomorrow. The only chance of a positive result, is if the Aussies are bowled out tomorrow morning, leaving a run chase in the afternoon.
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Also based from what we have seen in NZ 1st innings, Boult is no mug at the bat even at 11. anything around the 5.50-6 runs per over chasing is gettable on a final day at the WACA
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be amazed if they declare before lunch. as others have said in the context of this match a chase of around 300 at 5 an over is not a big ask. you'd get pretty close just playing normally and scoot home if plenty of wickets in hand after tea
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I'm surprised the draw has gone out to 1.28. A shower looks likely around mid-afternoon.
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Yes, test cricket captains, much like gamblers, have risk averse chimp brains when in a position of strength. The actual risk of setting say 300 in 65 overs rather than 330 in 60 would be rather low, although I suppose the additional chance of wining wouldn't be that substantial either.
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That was to PTTT, rather than pxb. Not sure what draw layers are seeing in this situation. I was quite keen on the draw this time yesterday but my stipulations of how many overs each side needed to bat for the draw are much closer for NZ having seen off much of the morning session (and actually cut their overs needed to bat by scoring fast) and very close to achieved for Aus, given only 2 down at close. I quite fancy 1.28 even with no chance of rain.
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What draw layers see is a target less than 300 in 60+ overs. 5 an over on this pitch is gettable even without BMc.
I just can't convince myself Smith will give NZ that much of chance. But maybe the number crunchers say that will give Aus the best chance of a win. |
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How much statistical analysis do you think teams have? I suppose it's a technical thing that could be harnessed but it's quite tough to find stats that really offer you a great deal of tactical insight. I'm not generally, for example, terribly interested in what the top chase at a ground has been in its history, nor would I be if I were a test captain.
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How much statistical analysis do you think teams have?
They will certainly have someone who knows about these things. Whether Boof and Smith take any notice is a question I can't answer. As the big changes in Winviz predictions yesterday showed, the tools are not very accurate (as opposed to precise). How do you give a numerical value to a pitch? |
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Arthur Nguyen
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need some quick runs in the morning for any chance of a game here
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Johnson retires!
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& Jonathan Trott has come out of retirement
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Market waking up to the fact, a shower or 2 will kill any chance of result.
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Im a bit surprised Mitchell decided to hang up the boots. Thought he still had 2-3 seasons left him.
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True , got to get the money when you are still in your prime.
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"Steve Smith on local radio. "We aren't going to do them any favours. They had the chance to set the game up (end of day 3, early day 4) and didn't." I guess that means don't expect an attacking declaration!"
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If you like short odds then that quote is a licence to print money
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Unless the ball starts hooping and they bowl them out with a 250 run chase..
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yeh if Aus get bowled out then that's another thing
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Think regardless, worth a tickle lay. Regardless, I think NZ would come out with a win in mind. That and wickets would shoot the draw price out before they shut up shop, should that happen.
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yeh I wrote that before Marsh got out. Aus could fold from here in the next 30 overs
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new ball around the corner too
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Yeah, but you are of course right. Just that I am not somebody that likes short odds for backing. Might be big odds if that were true for a pure bet.
I am treading carefully for a while. Still enough batting to tie up plenty of overs should that be the goal. All good suggesting that NZ would shut up shop leading to a draw, but no reason Aus can't do that too. New ball doubt is taken given what the ball is doing at the moment. |
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you've talked me into it
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Would be good for the test if it comes down to a 50 over shoot out
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Draw dropping like a stone.
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Winviz has draw 90%, NZ 0.2%
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game back on
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http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR703.loop.shtml
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