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Pakistan vs England, 3rd Test at Sharjah
Pakistan vs England, 3rd Test at Sharjah
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Replies: 806
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Give it til about the 10th over, let us say over 12 for WD, and the odds start to go.
Holding off a few overs and try and catch a small train to the next station where I hope to get off. |
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We are exactly half way through the match.
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johnnythebull 03 Nov 15 09:47
if Pak apply themselves and get 300 is 230 too much 4 Eng in the 4th inns or achievable? it's tough to say, a lot depends on how much this wicket breaks up by then. |
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Same problem today as yesterday: only bets I'm really interested in just deepen my red on draw and green on Pak, which I can't really stand as already a rather alarming shade of carmine on the draw.
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How did I do? Price unmoved for 5 overs, 1.95 to 2.20 in 9 balls.
And off.......  |
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Question for people with more wisdom than I have on test markets: how far is the draw likely to drop if Pak not losing wickets? Only if they're scoring at a decent rate, which they will if batsmen stay in, the Pak win starts to eat up some of the draw. It will be safe enough to declare overnight tomorrow setting 380 or so, if it comes to it.
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Don't think they are declaring. Although obviously your question dictates not losing wickets. If they are not losing wickets, then the draw comes in plenty, as the pitch seen as more batsmen friendly.
At the moment, it can't go too far because they aren't scoring the runs, so even if they bat 100 overs, at 2.5, then leaves a full day to get SFA runs. I suspect there is a chance we see 3.50, but wouldn't expect to see any lower than that. |
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If Pak are 150/0 at stumps draw will be 2 or not far off.
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Dangerous stuff backing England away from home odds on.
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The draw odds are a fickle mistress
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market loves Pak predicated more so on Eng not being able to handle their spinners in last inns
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Doesn't look like a track wickets don't fall on, to be fair but they haven't yet this innings. If they don't, with this England attack so spin heavy and the spinners so lacking in control, runs will come quickly. Pak know that scoring is just as important as eating up time. I may not have my runs ahead by close tomorrow equation right though, nor of course will Misbah be obliged to declare until England totally out of it even if the situation arises.
I can't tell whether I want them losing wickets or not. Am I more in favour of my £3.3k red on the draw disappearing as a risk or of my £900 green on Pak looking more like the eventual outcome? |
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Pak will not declare until they are completely safe, if it gets that far.
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Whisperingdeath
03 Nov 15 09:31 anyone with steel balls and deep pockets would do well to back the draw here. I think if there is no new ball wicket it falls from 5 to 4 within 30-45 minutes Whisperingdeath 03 Nov 15 09:47 12 is the magic number prices shoot out to 12 then come back I think the draw might come down to the low 3's at some point but I will not be able to take advantage |
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The draw odds are a fickle mistress
But when you discover Test match draw trading, all other trading becomes mere brief flings. |
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unless Pak collapse here now looking more problematical 4 Eng to prevail but capable of rearguard action to not lose if Pak post big total..draw considered by many as a non seqitur could actually end up being the result
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I'm back in green territory now but 2 quick wickets would erase that
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Slogger
Chill out. We are caught out in a draw squeeze. It is not a problem as Paks will go odds on possibly to 1.5 if they build a decent total. If the draw is correspondingly low you can lay the draw again with the money you have freed up on the draw red if you see what i mean. My main preoccupation now is the consideration of health insurance. Should I clear my England red shortly? There are only two possible results for me. We have the advantage of watching the game. 1+1 does not always equal 2 in cricket. 10 wickets day1, 4 wickets day 2? 6 so far day 3 Slogger you can afford to sit tight and not get greedy. If the draw falls then so do Pakistan and you can lay off. |
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I like it when I'm massively ahead and you can almost bully the odds
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Slogger you must be in Winehouse territory too........back to black
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The thing is that Pak will aim for a 400 target for England, which means batting till almost stumps day 4. Draw can go way shorter than 2 tomorrow.
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Who'd of thunk the draw would be low 3s on the 3rd day after the amount of turn on the first day. Crazy
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Juce 12 out of 270 odd teams with a first innings deficit of more than 72 was a statistic stated by Andrew Samson on the Sob Continent. that is a very insightful statistic I am sure everyone would agree.
her's why I say 1+1 can equal 3. We all expected the pitch to deteriorate after day 1. it did not. We still expect it to deteriorate but it is still day 3. maybe it may not deteriorate till well into day 4. England have 2 seamers who are good but 3 mediocre spinners. Pakistan batsmen do have patience. Bugger this I need to lay the draw again excuse me! |
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pxb
i agree but the odd ball will spit as we have just seen. i think wickets will fall regularly. i feel the secret here is not be to greedy and a bit of pound cost averaging would not go amiss. Even 1 wicket could spell doom and open the flood gates. I will bet my house this will not be a draw. IMHO this is a troosers down opportunity. I don't like the time free money but this game should not be a draw. Paks will of course bat on as you say but i think they will be bowled out. Must cover England in case of a collapse |
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Had a mild draw back at 3.6 to reduce liability and aiming to lay it back at 3.3. When that 6 off Ali took the odds down past that I got greedy and now want 3.1.
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They should be disgusted with themselves even appealing for that. Ridiculous.
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I need to do more of this test match trading. I don't think the game will be drawn more than a small fraction of the time from here yet I'm waiting or the draw price to come down so I can lay it at better value so am hoping a wicket won't fall to make my last decision look silly when a wicket is what I really want for my overall position.
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i have a lay order at 3.15, only small then will takes 3 then 2.75
but when paks go odds on i can lay then back which will cover England red reduce draw red and free up more money to lay the draw |
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just laid the X at 3.25 more in hope than expectation
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WD, I wasn't suggesting Pak will get a 400 lead, although they might. Eng spinners are already being smacked around and chances are it will get worse.
I wouldn't be laying the draw here. I think it will go much shorter. |
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Now I've got my 3.1 lay matched I'm back on begging for wickets.
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i don't think it'll be a draw either, but i think the draw could yet go very short.
my gut feel is that either england will have something achievable, and you hope they go for it at 0-1 down, or will implode if they try and stab out a dry on a 5th day wicket. |
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*draw
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cashed out ..cold feet..gonna lay Pak
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pxb,
no i didn't think you were suggesting that. I agree draw will go much shorter maybe even odds on with no wicket after tea but we have two full days and a session and no Friday prayers. Maybe I should wait a bit more like you say but a wicket changes everything. I think it more prudent to back it slowly on the way down. I really do feel this a fill your boots opportunity. I am not a trader so I am listening to why you guys are not getting excited by these developments |
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Have to feel that with 31 overs left, spin will play the big part of the first 18 overs or so waiting for the ball to reverse. Throwing up a dangerous ball every now and again, but pretty easy to score off. Another 60 runs, then about 12 overs of pace.
Draw could well be 2.60 before Anderson gets it in his hand, and the pitch is a lot better than it was on day 1, but they still seem happy to simply block them out of the attack knowing that 65% of the overs will be thrown down by part time spinners. Think 300-340 about right here with a lot depending on reverse swing. I don't think it would be a draw either, but the worst part about trading for me, apart from all my money disappearing, is being red from the start, ie trading on the reliance of a wicket coming. Would much rather lay England for short term trades of an over or 2 inbetween wickets. |