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**The Ashes 2013 4th Test 09-13 August Emirates Durham**
**The Ashes 2013 4th Test 09-13 August Emirates Durham**
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Pfff "England unchanged"!!
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Bird for Starc
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What you starting with BJT?
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no jimmy?
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TMS reckon Jimmy's in. They say England unchanged.
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Fair play to Aus for realising bowlers need to take wickets.......but why drop one of their better batsman?
 England should take note, the third seamer needs to pose a greater threat, Onions should have played. Also as Aggers said, they need 5 days gate receipts! |
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Sensible strategy...
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England bat!
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Eng win and bat
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Final teams? Is Bird in?
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Successful Ashes to date (1st and 3rd tests that is - didn't see any of the 2nd Test). Lovely train on the draw last week.
However in both cases I've made the schoolboy error of getting involved too quickly and too heavily (sparking off a little spat with BJT about approaches ). I then spend time recovering before enhancing position.So for me: ----- Be patient. I think I'm not the only one guilty of lack of patience, as for such a slow-moving market in comparison to other formats and tennis etc, its amazing how many come on here saying they are in trouble and we are only at the end of Day 1. ----- At certain stages one of the 3 prices becomes relatively risk-free for a while, or is under pressure. That's what I'll be looking for. Good luck all. |
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I watched a ODI here last year albeit after rain but was horrible batting wicket.
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Great! Looking forward to see the Bird!
I hope Cummins will be fit in the winter. I would like to see Aussie make a contest out of it. |
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Right, well that dictates my strategy. I'm going to back Aus initially, then switch to Eng after they fall for sub 300...
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I see England lay looming!
Must learn to be patient, quite right Wallflower. |
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Interested to see how Bird goes. Destroyed SL, but different task here playing against a test side rather than SL being OD/T20 mindset.
Still, think he could be anything. Could certainly do with a good start to get a settled lineup. |
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The other point is Harris, obviously well talked about gets rested a lot. Short turnaround here, so need him to pull up. They obviously think he is right, but bowling day 1 probably not ideal for him.
So much to watch, can't see a bet til at least 5 overs bowled here. |
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looks like its gonna piss down
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kingmax 09 Aug 13 10:39
looks like its gonna piss down -------------------------------- Backed the draw?  |
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BBC now say a 20% chance of a shower around lunchtime.
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Extra half hour etc etc... Might be a good oppo to lay the draw
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Shane Warne...false teeth, false hair and false tongue!
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Eng back to pre-toss price.
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Laying the draw could only possibly work if England fail with the bat.
The word is the wicket will do plenty and should be a result. The way England bat, if they aren't losing wickets, they aren't scoring heavily so the draw must shorten. England score heavily, draw shortens. Only way it drifts is if they are losing wickets consistantly. If that is happening, Aus are tumbling in. I think England price probably worth staying away from. Can do the same thing around the other 2 options with much greater movement. If England bat decently, Aus could easily hit 10+ halfway through the day. If Aus take wickets, then hard to see them coming in past 2.50 today. If I was to make a speculative bet, I would have to lay Aus as it has more upside. Not going to though yet, as all the talk is the ball will do plenty, and the cloud cover will be rolling in. |
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Butch,
You might not get the extra overs in if the light is bad at the end of the day but having said that I still think a result is on the cards. |
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No that's true WD, although I still think in general that draws are too short as a rule. Add in some rain and market panic normally just exacerbates things!
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sorry BJ,
Laying Aus ante post is crazy here! or rather it leaves you exposed if they take wickets. I agree though I wouldn't be on England right now. Too much downside if they get skittled and how far will they fall if they bat well? |
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I think Aus will be batting before the end of the day ( barring a long delay for rain )
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run line 375
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Highest 1st Innings score at Durham this season is 268
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Highest 1st Innings score at Durham this season is 268
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As I said though, I have no interest at this stage of making a bet until I see how the wicket is playing, and how the players are going about it.
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backing England at Evens on a result deck batting first has limited downside.
Even if they got as few as 175-199 the damage would be to the draw price; Aus would be 1.4-1.6 and Eng c 2.5 - not horrible if you're on at 2.0 If they get 250 plus (and it's done a bit) you'd be on a 1.5 shot at 2.0. Even if Eng get skittled for 150 you could get some back if you wanted (ppl be backing 'em at 4.0-5.0 ish). Result pitch - don't be laying the Fave too early imo. It's all about the draw price early doors. (or timing your entry on either of the two teams if you fancy 'em). Of course, if you think Draw's a player; you should ignore the above and look at laying the teams when it suits you - and maybe Eng at 2.0 is a lay. WTF do i know?  |
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That being said, if you think this is a result pitch, then you really wouldn't be doing much except for laying the draw.
Right? |
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Or laying 400 runs...?
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I think the surface is ok but feel wickets!
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This patience lark is hard
...........there is no bet/trade yet for me......only 2.4 overs and my fingers are itching.Only thing I wouldn't consider is back of England at evens.....patriotic money here and there but very little upside |
