one big mistake people make with the weather, is just looking at the forecast for the place in question. its much more relevant what the forecast is for the entire country.

quite often it will say showers for one city, but if you look at the forecast for the entire country its just for a few showers dotted about the place. usually they either miss completely or blow through quickly.

day 5 at OT was different in that heavy rain was forecast for nearly the entire country. much less likely to miss or blow through.

click on united kingdom. the bit of cloud or rain forecast around durham on monday is about the only bit of cloud in the entire country apart from one lower down. usually that turns out to be nothing.

the forecast is for fairly hot temperatures all 5 days, a sign that prolonged rain is unlikely. sunday 20c, monday 19c.

forecasts are unreliable and change, but right now they dont have anything in them to suggest any rain of note.

I agree with much of what you say sideshow in terms of looking at the forecast for the entire country, however when looking at the UK LR weather forecasts, the story can often paint a picture where on the basis of Air Pressure, those specific county areas are shown to bear out accurate forecasts. I think this is one of those instances, and therefore believe there will be rain affecting the match enough to warrant some draw insurance.

Bobo,

I don't think there is much criticism of Clarke.  Some people, like me are just pointing out that the best chance Aus had for winning the last game was by enforcing the follow on.  Rain was due and to be fair precious little fell till Monday afternoon.  It could have rained from Friday.

Clarke had a decision to make.  Personally I felt he should have pushed on when he had two batsmen set fair.  Some say he was vindicated by taking two early England wickets, I don't.  I would not criticise him for that per se but am pointing out in hindsight a bit more foresight would have helped.

The second point is that England avoided the follow on when they were 110-4.  In hindsight again admittedly this saved England.

There is plenty of whinging from Aussies that the weather saved England.  Yes it did but that is part of the game.  You can imagine some of them jumping up and down yelling it's not fair!

Looking forward to this game.  Have layed the draw ante post small.  Will be keen to see the pitch and who wins the toss.  Just because I think England are a much better side does not mean I don't think Australia can win this game given the right conditions!

don't tell me pxb,

it'll be windy in the afternoon?

Bugger me if I have been waiting for the game to start today!

I guess I am a traditionalist!  What next pyjama's?

SH weather for Australia is driven by the Pacific Ocean, particularly the cooling and warming sea surface temps of the Western Pacific, in what is termed as the 'three phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'. Presently, Australia is in the La Nina phase, with increased convection over Australia and therefore the likelihood of above-average rainfall along the East Coast and the interior. However, ENSO does not affect the West Coast of Australia. For Perth weather, predicting the 'hemispheric long wave pattern' or the study of troughs along the longitudes of South Africa, Western Australia, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean is a much more accurate starting point. The rain events which are a major factor for Perth are those originating in the tropics, however by mid-December the period of the 3rd Test at the WACA, it may be a tad too early in the summer for a tropical influence bringing rain-bearing systems, and thus an 80% success of accurately predicting a warm, sunny, and dry for 5 days seems spot on.

Yes, the prediction of weather for the UK is made much more difficult for a variety of factors, however the British Isles are more predictably wet, and this combined with the LR Air Pressure studies, the predictions can become be quite accurate, especially when discussed in the context of rain affecting a 5 day cricket match, which I think is likely.

Cheers,
SP

Starting off with a bet on Eng again. The stats point to a result. Not a high scoring pitch. Eng 4 from 4 here, but against lesser teams, if we're honest. Aus pulled one out of the bag last test, but Eng have yet to have all batsmen firing, and if finally everyone puts in a decent performance, I can see the Aussies being put to bed. Don't forget, before this series was the champions trophy etc etc. Aus have been poor for ages and one 'good' result doesn't mean they've turned a corner in 3 weeks.

sun just breaking through looks like another nice day!! Enjoy...

will england make any changes?

who will onions replace?

Anderson? Broad was looking lame?

oz win toss and field = my guess

I think the market will overreact to early wickets, so if Aus win and bat, I'll be on Eng. If Eng bat, I'll wait to get a nice price at 150/4 or something.

yeah ive layed the draw, cant see australia batting over 220  overs in the match

Is Ian Ward a dwarf ? everyone he stands next to looks 7 foot tall.

Vaughan says no Jimmy...

So does TMS. Didn't warm up apparently.

Having failed to get 3.2 opposing the draw yesterday I am going to wait, watch and see.

I think England will be too strong this time out.  They have had their bad match and their Holy Trinity of Cook, Trott and Prior will be looking to make a contribution this time out.

Again I will be interested to see if England can make the ball reverse.  The pitch may be dry but the outfield if likely to be lush and even damp.

I am not going to put money on the team that wins the toss straight away either as both side have good pace attacks and a clatter of wickets may occur regardless of who is first up.

Watch and see as usual.

England unchanged!