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**The Ashes 2013 4th Test 09-13 August Emirates Durham**
**The Ashes 2013 4th Test 09-13 August Emirates Durham**
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Replies: 2,806
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interwebz people are so bitter...
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We are jealous because you are so smart and rich. You told us so....
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If this was an ODI it would be a winning 1st innings score already...
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Scores on this ground this season, says 238/9 isn't a bad score at all. But England's early work was undone by some poor middle order batting.
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How many internationals have been played on this ground this year?
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Use your degree professor to count.. Can you count that high?
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The market says thats a pretty bad score. The money line was 350-375 runs.
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they always overestimate england though? i imagine? i would have said about 300. which they should have made if they hadnt batted like wallies.
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240-250 is a good score in this pitch, my guess is the market will realise it and AUS will drift to 2.30 until tomorrow morning, we shall see.
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I actually do have a maths degree. I didnt do any statistics modules, so I learnt absolutely nothing that was relevant to gambling.
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Not surprised. Everybody else does, so why wouldn't you.... We all make bucket-loads of cash too. We are all awesome people.
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i have a computer engineering degree that has nothing much to do with maths, but i can count to 20 using my fingers and toes.
does anybody remember when this was a cricket phorum? |
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if this was a 20/20 match would have to back england with this first innings score
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Nice game. Call it the blame game.
Time to grow up professor rich.... |
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oh shut up you tart!
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Impressed my daughter when I showed her how to count to 1,000 just using her fingers - binary arithmetic.
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lay the draw again
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Its been a strange old day, as England took control at 149-2, but then chucked it away bigtime. The best 1st innings score at Durham this season has been 264. However the ball seemed to do very little, a few seamed off the pitch and the ball spun just a little towards the end of the day. The way Jimmy Anderson batted at the end, suggest Englands total is a poor one, unless we have a miraculous 10th wicket partnership of around a 100 (very unlikely) Lets see how Australia go, as you need to see both sides bat, to see whether the score is a poor one, a good one, or a par one. The draw does look an excellent value lay.
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think it's not too much below par myself considering cc games here. Bit of cloud cover and aus will more than likely crumble. England win the test imo. Draw not happening here.
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Agreed no draw, but forecast mostly sunny. Aus should capitalize on batting days 2 and 3, leaving Eng to try and save the game days 4/5.
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Personally think day 2 will be the best for batting. England obviously thought they would be using it, but Australia will get it. Think it will be much quicker and Aus (if even at least average) will make a decent score of it.
Pom mentality showing through. They see the job as already being done and their defensive batting got them in trouble. Australia was able to attack with RR below 2.5 most of the day, which bought about wickets which really shouldn't have fallen. A more attacking approach could have easily seen them 5/300. Pitch really doing very little. Aus bowlers did bowl a very good line, especially Lyon who was able to take 4 for very little by just bowling the right line. I really think in the scheme of things there is not too much different between him and Swann, just the England captain will let Swann bowl near half the innings overs, where Lyon gets an over here an over there. Especially this series, Lyon has certainly put the ball in a better spot more consistantly. Australia will come out always with a view of winning. They will play at 3+ runs an over bare minimum and work the rest out from there. Averaging 3.6 or so an over this series. Boosted a little by the last innings where they went for a quick declaration, but that also bought down their average too due to giving their wickets away as they only wanted a small total. Unselfish. The tail have shown if you play your shots you can make runs. The "batsmen" didn't. They wanted to take strike, and see out the overs. Apparantly building a foundation or something. But stale batting is bad batting. Australia can easily bottle this match, but I think they will have a big confidence boost after last test and they should be well over Englands total of |
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Especially this series *.*
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Australia can easily bottle this match, but I think they will have a big confidence boost after last test and they should be well over Englands total of *
around 260 and be chasing around 100 with the best part of the last day to get them. This is Australias test as heavy favourites, barring losing 60+ overs. |
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Australia were lucky with those 2 close LBWs. Without them Eng would be looking at 300 to 330, which is probably par. Expecting a good day from Aus on what should be a good day for batting. At stumps, 270 for 4 or 5.
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theres been some great wicket tumblers in durhams short history,hope it continues today.
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Agree sonof - Don't know where people have got this par score of 350ish from - Look at previous scores! Agree that some of these wickets were given away cheaply but I don't think Eng were ever going to pass 350. I suspect Aus will also go for sub 300 and then it's game on. Botham on TV saying he thought it might bat better today than yesterday - let's see, the 'experts' haven't been great at predicting the pitch, have they?! Having said that, I'm on Aus for a session - Jimmy was in no mood to hang about, and as BJT says, the Aus openers might take some heart from the last test. I'll be out by lunch though, and would still take Eng to win this...
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Even though what I said says an Aus victory from here, I certainly won't be on Aus. I will see what the conditions are and if I bet around what I said, it will be a draw back. If I am right, or if this particular scenario plays out, the draw will be the one to crash, as the market will see what the pitch is really like, and assume that England will bat forever when it is their turn again bringing the draw right in.
If Aus can make a good go of it, I suspect the draw to come in past 3.50. Aus certainly wouldn't come in to the same extent, at least imo. Even say 3/150 I would expect the draw to be close to that mark. 6/240 I still think the draw will be right amongst it, as the market will always think England can do so much better. |
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Plenty of time for an Aus back, but the value won't be realised for some time.
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2 scenarios here.
Either England roll Aus for not much more than 200 and the draw blows out. Or, Australia get to stumps 4 or 5 down and Eng blows out. Can't see the draw much under 5 at any point in this match. |
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Well, there are plenty more scenarios than that.
But I think you will find a similar thing as the England price on day 1. Aus bat well, Eng drift hard and draw tumbles. Aus reasonably stagnant. Aus wickets tumble, Eng price tumbles, Aus drift, draw drifts. If Aus lose 5 wickets today, then England will drift hard. Where is the correction in the market? The Aus price? Doubtful. England would be out past 5.00 in that scenario. Aus maybe 2.00. That would give the draw 30% market share, or 3.33 price. England go to 5.00 and draw goes to 5.00, then Aus must be 1.66. Not sure I see the market allowing Aus to be 1.66 unless the 5 wickets they lose gets them to 350 plus. So if Aus are longer, then England must be shorter? You think England taking 5 wickets would be sub 5.00? Has to be the draw price in that scenario, and must hit 3.50 unless they lose the 5 wickets quickly. IMO, if Aus bat well, the draw must plummet. |
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I thought it would be a bad wicket at Durham but actually I'm not convinced that it is. It's slow that's for sure but it seems pretty true and there was very little seam or swing, not much turn or reverse swing before the new ball. The outfield was slow which probably cost 30 ish runs over the day but see no reason why Oz can't put together a good total here if they knuckle down and get through the initial few overs releatively unscathed. Time to step up to the plate.
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Had a cheeky bet on Anderson top eng batsman for some light entertainment. Lets see how far he gets. Slog it Jimbo!
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This piece with Warney's bloody superb.
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