Cricket
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By my calculations they have to beat Sri Lanka by a run rate of 4.25. That means if they bat first they have to win by 213 runs(no chance) If they win the toss they surely have to field first. If they restrict Sri Lanka to 250 they have to get them in 27 overs, or 200 in 24 overs,150 in 21 overs. Realistically they will hope to be chasing less than 175.
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yep, I laid them in the winners market. Very unlikely indeed
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SL already been bowled out for 140 by kiwis this comp. I'd fancy aus too go thru chasing up to 200
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anything is possible with a batsman like watson
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This is true. But Aussie mentality will hopefully mean they really go for it (and fail). They don't have Cook as a captain, after all... Sri Lanka for me when it all gets a bit much for Aus.
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is it a full game or bad weather due
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aston
Not sure if you're calculations re Aus having to win by 213 are correct (although the calculations can be a bit of a brain-twister so I may be wrong). If Aus bat first then they obviously have to go big. As an example, if Aus get 300 in 50 and then restrict Sri Lanka to 174, I would make NRR as follows: Aus 0.780 NZ 0.777 |
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Also, unless i'm wrong, in your exam =ple of Aus restricting AL to 250, I make it that they would have 29 overs to get 251 (giving them a NRR of 0.785)?
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large money coming in for Australia in match odds
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Just read this on cricinfo which ties in:
Big Picture Amid the vexing appearances of rain in the last few days, three of the four teams will nervously wait for the result of the final Group B match. Sri Lanka, who more often than not make it to the knockouts in ICC tournaments, just need a win; if they win big - that is, by about 90 runs in a full 50-over game - they can better England's net run rate and finish top of the group. Australia, who have looked a shadow of their usual selves, need to win by about 125 runs to lift their NRR above that of New Zealand and knock them out. If they bat second and Sri Lanka score 200, Australia will need to chase the target down in about 27 overs. New Zealand, who looked good to make it to the next round till a day ago, need Australia to win but not absolutely thump Sri Lanka. The London weather may interrupt the match but is expected to hold better than in Cardiff or Edgbaston. |
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If Australia Bat first then regardless to what they score, they need to WIN by 126 runs to qualify.
If Sri Lanka bat first, then it varies between 25 and 32 overs to chase down the target score. e.g. Chasing a Sri Lankan score of 350 runs......32 Overs 300 runs......30.4 Overs 250 runs......29 Overs 200 runs......27.1 Overs 150 runs......24.5 Overs |
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I guess whoever wins the toss is sure to bowl first.
Could be some fireworks on the batting front later! |
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I disagree. I think Aus should bat. If they can beat par (whatever that might be) by 30-40 then the SL top order will have to take a few chances, which will give Aus the chance to run through the lower order. All very unlikely perhaps, but a better shot than chasing down a target in 30 overs.
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Interesting...... I still think that they would be better off chasing. If they bat first they will HAVE to go hell for leather and aim for 300+ and could see a quick collapse
I would rather bowl first with the chance of restricting SL to a low score and then you know exactly how fast you need to go in the second. |
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I guess what I am saying is that whatever happens they will have to restrict SL to a low score. At least if they bat second they know exactly how much caution they need to throw to the wind.
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You are right about needing to dismiss SL cheaply. Say Aus think in terms of getting them out for 200. That will be good enough if they have posted 325 batting first, or chase the 200 in 27 overs batting second. Now I agree that 200 from 27 is easier than 325 from 50 BUT... there is a much better chance of dismissing SL for 200 if the 325 is already on the board.
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I hear what you're saying but I would give them more chance of chasing a total in a lower number of overs than setting a big total in the first place.
If batting second, They will effectively be playing a reduced overs game which normally brings teams chances closer together. Still its all about opinions - we'll see what happens. Cricinfo are reporting that Michael Clarke is out. |
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I based my original calculations on NZ having played 3 matches with a NRR of +0.777 and Australia 2 matches with a NRR of -0.96 but that is including the 2 no results. If those are not included it makes it different 0.777 over 2 matches is a total of 1.554 so Australia have to get up to that. 1554 + 0.96 = 2.514.
If Australia win todays match with a run rate of 2.514 then their tournament total NRR would be 2.514 - 0.96 = 1.554 or 0777 per match. 2.514 X 50 overs = 125.7 i.e 126 runs batting first. Batting second they would have to score with a run rate more than 2.514 then Sri Lankas 250 at 7.514 per over = 33.27 overs 200 at 6.514 per over = 30.7 overs 150 at 5.514 per over = 27.2 overs But apparently these above calcs are also wrong as according to cricinfo its 200 in 27 overs  but that would be 7.4 per over compared to 4 per over giving a difference of 3.4? Maybe it is done on a over basis rather than a match basis so chasing 7.4 per over for 50 overs increased NRR more than if its 27 overs? If so any reduction in overs will make it even more difficult. 20-20 matches are rarely won by a large margin anyway |
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Aus win toss and field
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NRR is calculated by taking (runs scored/overs faced)-(runs conceded/overs bowled) in ALL 3 MATCHES TOGETHER.
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actually, its a bit more complicated than that but thats the gist
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Plumb
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anybody know what score SL have to win by to top the group?
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"Sri Lanka just need a win; if they win big - that is, by about 90 runs in a full 50-over game - they can better England's net run rate and finish top of the group"
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dilshan is going to be out very soon
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Lest we forget.... Aus are GASH right now.
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Whats your bet Stevie?
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This is a decent opening spell with the ball by Bruce Almighty
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SL lok like they want a quick 220 all out off 30 overs
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aussies win this easily
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how many sri lanka make from here maybe 200
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what you guys think
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Market always overreacts to early wickets. Plenty more batting to come. 250 easily possible.
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I reckon that 1 more wicket before the 1st ten overs are gone and Sri Lanka will be all out for around 200.
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butch be realistic sri lanka bowling is terrible they could not defend 340 against india in practice match and also they concede 290 against england
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You didn't ask that. You asked how many SL would make...
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australia should just go for the win really no point in trying to get 200 in 28 overs, just leave this tournament with some pride after warner embarrassing aussie cricket
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why root not press charges against warner anyone know
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butch
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I would imagine "for the good of the game" Pre-Ashes criminacl charges over a bi tch slap isn't going to do anyone any good.
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