Cricket
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Just laid England at 1.65
They were around 1.95 before the first test so are they now that much better? I think this is a big over-reaction to 2 hours of mayhem yesterday when Broad blew NZ away for just 68
The thing is England were supposed to win the match so it wasnt exactly a shock result. They were expected to be the better side in the match but after 3 days the match was even. At the start of day 4 then you would have said England should be higher odds to win the 2nd test than the first based on the first 3 days.
Stuart Broad is a 'hot and cold' bowler and yesterday he was red hot. The odds for the 2nd test seem to imply that he is going to be red hot in the 2nd test also but this cannot be relied on. Also England are now 1-0 up to a 2 test series. This means they only need a draw to win the series. Im not suggesting Cook wont be trying to win but he is less likely to take as many risks i.e. scoring fast runs and making risky declarations to set up a win than if the score was 0-0.
They were around 1.95 before the first test so are they now that much better? I think this is a big over-reaction to 2 hours of mayhem yesterday when Broad blew NZ away for just 68
The thing is England were supposed to win the match so it wasnt exactly a shock result. They were expected to be the better side in the match but after 3 days the match was even. At the start of day 4 then you would have said England should be higher odds to win the 2nd test than the first based on the first 3 days.Stuart Broad is a 'hot and cold' bowler and yesterday he was red hot. The odds for the 2nd test seem to imply that he is going to be red hot in the 2nd test also but this cannot be relied on. Also England are now 1-0 up to a 2 test series. This means they only need a draw to win the series. Im not suggesting Cook wont be trying to win but he is less likely to take as many risks i.e. scoring fast runs and making risky declarations to set up a win than if the score was 0-0.
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Also I suspect they would be longer if you swaped NZ's 2 innings i.e. if they got 68 in the first innings and 207 in the second innings chasing 378 to win. Then people would focus more on the second than the first innings.
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NZ have players injured
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That's a possible advantage, rick.
How would NZ look if Vettori and Ronchi rock up at Headingley instead of Martin and Watling? |
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Yes Martin and Watling both had poor matches and could have been dropped anyway(if they have replacements). It would be more serious if the injured players were Taylor, Williamson, McCullum or Southee
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England are shorter because they won very easily in the end and there are less weather concerns at this stage.
Lots of chat about how big the Kiwi price was during the Lords game - it will be stay bigger for longer in running this time. Pre match odds currently about right imo - no point in backing NZ pre match - there will be better opportunities i/r. England at 1.7 looks fair as an outright bet. |
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Big leap of faith to bring Vettori in - he's not even in the country yet and has been out injured for 6 weeks.
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the weather looks pretty sh!t to me, rain forecast every day, thats your only change in odds from the 1st test, if the weather was all clear the draw would be 3.50 - 3.75
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spot on aston just had a bit of the same@1.68
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Quite a few showers in the forecast, but prolonged rain looks unlikely. Lose say 1.5 sessions. Plenty of time for a result.
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As usual it depends which forecast you look at. Metcheck has rain every day whereas BBC says dry every day
 Doesnt give me much faith in the so called experts |
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NZ could collapse just as pathetically in the 1st innings rather than the 2nd innings. They weren't that impressive in the 1 st innings. A collapse like that it reflects just as much on the poor standard of batting as on Broad's bowling.
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Lots of weather around - happy to back the draw early here and hope.
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Just had a decent bet on England to win as I think the weather situation is improving and represents better value than a lay of the draw. NZ have shown themselves incapable of winning under any circumstances so a lay of them would be logical but I don't lay 10/1 shots on principle.
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Loads of time for a result.Headingley is almost a 'guaranteed result' venue.
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Last test a draw but yes historically you're right.
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principle of what? If they aren't going to win 10/1 is excellent value.
Nigel, you are right of course. The reason is that I limit exposure to a tightly controlled formula and laying 10/1 limits both profitability and the ability to lay off later while keeping something worthwhile. My first principle is preservation of capital, something which has served me well over decades of investing, not just on sports betting. |
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To illustrate further my last message, you may have noticed from my posts that in the first Test I layed the draw when odds on, on a couple of occasions and greened up each time when odds against. I could have let the bets ride but decided to bale out on day 3 as I felt that the risk/reward ratio had increased beyond what I judged acceptable. When and if I've made my profit I will walk away from the table.
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Not an unreasonable tactic and fair play.
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Thanks Nigel, it suits me but I realise that everyone's different and will have a different approach.
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Aston, yes Broad, does blow hot and cold, but has been taking wickets for Notts regularly this season. Anderson blows hot most games and will be amonst the wickets again at Headingly and Finn who bowled very average in the 1st innings, is more than capable of getting amonst the NZ batting, another comfortable win for England, me thinks.
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just seen the weather forecast for Friday on BBC - could be a complete washout
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Im going on Friday and the original forecast of 9 degrees feels like 4 degrees was bad enough but rain now widely tipped which will ruin what is always a cracking day out at Headingley
Ive laid a bit of the draw at 3.3 but nothing serious and cancelled the rest until the weather forecast unwinds a bit. No floodlights also so can see light becoming an issue Maybe back the draw Nigel sounds like a better opening situation in the circumstances, although if the weather is half ok there will be a result |
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Having seen the forecast for Mon/Tues, I've backed the draw for a fair amount. Also light would look to be an issue.
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I think light is the major problem here. No floodlights and cloudy days. Happy to be on the draw here but agree with others that ultimately unless we lose more than four/five sessions definitely will be a result. At this stage though I reckon we could lose a lot of time through light and showers.
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The draw could go into freefall here. Agree with all the comments about it being a results pitch but if there's a serious amount of time lost on Friday, it's questionable as to whether that time will ever be made up given no floodlights available. More upside backing in the draw at this stage (possibly to lay) in my opinion.
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Agree, the amount of time lost Friday, and the number of wickets of course, will likely determine whether a draw or not. Not looking too bad at the mo.
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Lots of potential weather still about and bad light make the draw here a good bet I feel.
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I've traded out of my draw back and will wait to see what Friday morning looks like, the toss, whether Vettori plays.
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NZ due a score(tongue in cheek)
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Monday's forecast absolutely awful (Meteox). Leeds is not London. WHen they forecast rain up here it rains.
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Yeah, it's carnage now - tomorrow dead as well
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Tomorrow looks pretty grim to be honest - surprised the draw isn't shorter.
Monday too far ahead to make judgements imo. Mid range lay of England as a starting position for me |
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in pudsey, can see ground other side of valley. odd weather at moment. patches of sun, brief flurries of snow/hail and now a thunderclap.
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Im staying in Pudsey tonight!! Dont think Im going to have much of a day at Headers tomorrow but suppose we could always go on the lash if all else fails:)
Ive had a decent punt on the draw at 3.2 with a view to a trade because if and when the match starts in wont last long. Draw price the night before the Lords test with a weather forecast not as bad as this one was 2.54 so fingers crossed |
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sun out in patches again. give the bar code a miss, its full of drug dealers and arse bandits
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draw train leaving
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