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2nd Test: India v England MATCH THREAD
2nd Test: India v England MATCH THREAD
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Replies: 306
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Agree injera, The bet has to be on india or england to win..... Take your pick. Could all change in the first half hour tomorrow. Or the next two minutes.
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The point of trading is to discard what we think will happen and try and predict what the market thinks will happen, and which way it will move.
The point of gambling is to take a position when your view disagrees with the market view. I think the draw will trade lower in this market, and have taken a position accordingly |
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You're right guys.
Little confidence in England so the draw price has to come in to balance the book. India's price becoming more and more attractive. |
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I dont trade fwiw chatname. This test Is proving to me what i have thought since a kid. That much of the talk about the nature of the pitch is often over played, even the pundits dont really know. Yesterday we all thought India would do well to get 250 and that England do well to get 200. Of course it might all change tomorrow. There is a long long history of pitch talk being way off the mark from ever since i first started watching the game. Remember the pundits saying what a great batting pitch it was going to be 20 years ago then we would be all out for 180 and Stewart played through the innings for 79 and suddenly they were saying it was one of the great innings.
Seems to me, much of the time, that the pundits look at what happened and then concoct an analysis around that, rather than actually analysing the pitch regardless of what happened. If that makes any sense. |
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The run scoring is slow on this wicket - this is the case for the draw.
Case for the draw: England get 200 more for 150 lead round figures. (takes past tea day 3) India get 400 second innings for 250 lead (takes us past luch on day 5) England bat out 2 sessions for draw. |
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damn my arithmetic doesn't work LOL
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Rob, in general I agree with your comments about the 'pundits', however there are one or two who put a bit more thought into it and are less 'reactive' than the others.
Again I suppose the key is to form your own opinions - part of which will involve assessing the value of the pundits, but the majority should be based on your own thinking and research. Trader, average run rate over the first two days has been a shade over 2.8 - not too shabby actually. If this continues throughout the match then we would see about 760 runs scored (assuming no time lost) if we are to see a draw. So, to follow your line of thinking, how do we divvy those up to get a draw. I can't agree with India (or England for that matter) getting 400 in their second innings, so to get a draw we have to see England scoring a good chunk of that 760 in their first innings. Even if they get to 500 (thats 322 towards our total - and a lead of 180) and India get 300 in their second knock, that still leaves England enough time to knock off the 120 they would need. So we would need to see England perhaps going to 550 in their 1st innings and then India batting out for the draw. These scenarios seem unlikely, but I still believe the draw will trade lower, if England bat through to tea and beyond tomorrow. Interesting trading game |
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PJ,
Your arithmetic stands up to scrutiny but I don't think the pitch will. The Wankhede usually offers wickets up first session. If either Cook or KP go early I suggest the rest will fall quickly. If they bat on they could well put India under big pressure and the third innings for India may be more problematic than the 4th for England. Still fancy India here and an early finish, maybe day 4. Waiting for the domino to fall. |
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Whispering, this is where a bit of research comes in handy. Just because they say on Sky that wickets fall in the first session here doesn't necessarily make it so.
The previous test saw very few wickets fall in the first session on each of the first 4 days, and the one before that say a few more, but no more than average (compared to the other sessions) in what turned into a low scoring game. I shan't be expecting a tumble of wickets tomorrow morning. But I've been wrong before  |
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Planned site outage Tues am. Just received this from Betfair, looks like it will be going ahead.
Dear Tommy We at Betfair constantly strive to offer and deliver the best possible service to our customers. As part of this process we are improving our site, and as a result of this there will be an outage on Tuesday 27th November 2012 from 00:00:01 GMT to 09:00:00 GMT as the on-going improvements take place. These improvements are essential if we are to continue delivering the high standards we set ourselves and that you expect. Updates during the planned maintenance will be available at http://service.betfair.info. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause and thank you for continuing to bet with us. The Betfair Team |
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Now India are getting to the right price and almost a backable commodity... Early wickets and the have a slight lead on first inns...
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Sanjay Manjrekar, who is from Mumbai, tweeted earlier that he expects all the "action" to happen in the 1st session. He has been seeing this since his younger days in Mumbai. So tomorrow's morning session is MEGA important, and will decided the winner of the test match, and possibly the series.
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You pays your money and you takes your choice.
All I know is that he didn't see it in the last test match here |
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Commentators and fans alike get excited when the ball goes through the top and turns square.
This pitch is a bit like a green pitch that seams too much to find the edge or hit the stumps. It's not as easy to get wickets as we might think. Most balls are bouncing over the top or spinning so much you'll never edge them let alone be trapped LBW. Let's not forget spin opens up angles for right handers to cut Ojha and play Ashwin and Bhaji to the onside. Because there's so little spice for the quicks, the spinners have to take 35+ of the 40 wickets. That takes some doing! Still won't be a draw though. Not many tests are |
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I take your point Chat but as far as I can see for myself unless you are in you are out on this pitch. Once a batsmen has got in things look easier and these two are playing magnificently. Few others will be able to stick around long.The pitch as again as I see it is a ticking timebomb. I also think momentum will have a big influence. If England retain it tomorrow morning I can see India being skittled as easily as England.
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Fair comment.
And whether we see wickets or not the morning will be key. If England do retain that momentum, and get to lunch looking as though they will bat to tea and beyond, then the draw price will contract - as people question whether 20 wickets will fall in the last two days. But if we see wickets, then the draw will lengthen. I'm probably stating the bleeding obvious there, so let's be a little more adventurous.... England lose two (or fewer) wickets in the morning - draw price will be shorter than it is now England lose three wickets - draw price in the same region as it is at present England lose four or more - draw price moves out significantly. Anybody else have a view? |
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great analysis Inj, with you there, wickets are to be earned by the bowlers.
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I am not a trader by nature but I feel there are going to be some big swings in prices. Must avoid buying high selling low!
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this is a draw....cant see india doing worse than they did in first innings....
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Well played Captain
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Well played KP
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to all the muppets who kept slagging KP off go give your head a good shake ....the guys class and has just showed it....india got sfa chance here
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how average is india's bowling nothing and i mean NOTHING looks like getting these 2 out ,,,fancy 5 or 600 here
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pitch looks like a road batsmens paradise perhaps??
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Played skip.
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massive over reaction to cook's wicket 6.8 to 3.8 LOLOL
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Andy,
This pitch doesn't look like a road! |
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don't fancy bairstow making 20.......balls
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did for 1st hour lol
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draw 2.60 looks high to me what do you think guys?
I am relatively new to cricket |
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bairstow has immense talent but i do not think he's test class .....at the moment ....looks draw to me teo
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Draw a lay at that price imo.
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bairstow isn't good enough to bat at 5 or 6
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Draw was a better lay at 2.06 and would have been even better at evens as I was just about to lay it! but I concur two shots. Cook and KP made it look easy, it is not!
India look great value still and I am surprised to see the price so high. Averaging 3.13 India and content. We are not half way through this test yet. Gutted not to get on India at 7's or lay draw at 2.06 or England at 2.18 still shouldn't be greedy. Plenty of twists and turns to come. Indian batting by no means convincing in this match so far. |
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Gotta keep in mind India lead 1-0 in the series.
If England get a decent lead (100-150), India will be in no rush to push the game forward. |
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laying india is easy FREE MONEY here .
hope this helps . |
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India should not have been as short as 2-1 at the interval gone 11-30 in next to no time
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^^^^ 100-30 in no time
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english men is mug. i m not belive in eng . may be any time clapes .englande naver win this test match.
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