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**Eng vs Windies 3rd Test - official pre-game chatter**
**Eng vs Windies 3rd Test - official pre-game chatter**
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Replies: 1,070
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crashing!
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long in the high st at 7/2 so will need a ball bowled, hopefully!
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hmmm. 1.67 before a ball has been bowled. Greened out partially.
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There will definitely be some play. Forecast isn't that bad.
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No need to green yet. Will go lower.
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draw price beyond a joke now imo, our weather is not nailed on for 2 full lost days as these prices suggest
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TwoTon - I agree it's perhaps come in a bit too much. 1.8-1.9 feels about right.
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weather getting worse... whats the drainage like here?
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damn good I'd imagine : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edgbaston_Cricket_Ground
Edgbaston is considered to be one of England's leading cricket grounds. Wisden's guide to cricket grounds in 1992 commented that "Lord's is really its only superior in the United Kingdom"[10] with The Daily Telegraph agreeing in 2009 that "taken all in all, it is now the best ground outside Lord's."[16] After the opening of the new South and West Stands in 2011 the England and Wales Cricket Board commented that "the spacious facilities are cutting edge, marginally better than the Home of Cricket".[1] |
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My guess here is we'll lose 5-7 sessions. So there is an outside chance of an England win if WI have a couple of horror sessions which is always possible. Fully greened up and waiting for the next move.
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im not trading out yet... if the 1st session is a wash out the draw will hit 1.4sh
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http://www.hortweek.com/go/turf/article/1084918/inturfs-edgbaston-turf-underpins-england-test-cricket-victory/
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It's all about position management - I'm sure it'll go lower at some point but also relies on the weather being poor which isn't certain.
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The improvements, which included new drainage, took place over winter and were undertaken by the main contractor Steven Pask.
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yep could easily see sub 1.3 if day 1 is washed out. pretty sure 1.25 traded at durham in 2009 against this lot after the first day. didn't start until half way through day 2 and england still won.
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Draw price is perfectly fair at present. This is the worst forecast for a test in this country I've ever seen
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That was 2007, mafe. Pretty certain draw traded in the 1.10s as Colly and Prior were in the early stages of their partnership.
Something similar at Headingley that year. Shocking forecast, which improved and Sidebottom bowled out Windies. Memory more fuzzy on this one but think draw might have hit 1.40s |
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yeah, Eng traded 15s or something at Durham then. remember the game at Leeds too. Was absolutely freezing. WI cant bat in those conditions, they simply dont wanna be out there.
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I appreciate your thoughts gentleman. Some good guys on this forum.
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I have decided to green up. Small profit on Eng Zero on Windies and large profit draw. Will probably level up on Eng and Draw if draw goes silly before play starts. I can never trust the forecasts.
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good move. Anything can happen and ultimately a profit can't be taken away.
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I backed the draw at 9/4 with Coral on Sunday morning when is was about 2.86 to lay on betfair. I didnt bother to lay it with betfair though as I usually lay the runs which favours a result and they only let me have £200 anyway but im amazed to see in shorten to 1.67 in only 2 days
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lucky you - Coral banned me after a couple of weeks of serious arbing ;-O
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I might be next Nigel. Ive had 3 out of 3 wins in the last 2 days with them on the tennis totaling £660 so maybe I should hope my cricket bet loses so they dont close my account
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The draw should get shorter if England bat first imo as they are likely to bat for longer and take more time out of the game. Struass is unlikely to gamble on the weather forecast so if they bat 5 sessions and there are only 9 sessions play not much chance of a result whereas if Windies bat first and get out for 150 its odds on England. Even if England get a low score they are likely to do better in 2nd inns
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1.49 ffs!! Getting more than a bit silly now!
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Fridays weather looks to have taken a turn for the worse
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1.52 looks very short to me.
If two sessions of play are possible during thur/friday and the wicket is bowler friendly this will look a ridiculous price and thats even if the weather is as bad as the market is pricing in.At this juncture would much rather lay the draw than not and if there is no play at all during thur/friday well just got to pay the price.This gambling game about long term value and this is no value at 1.52 |
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Can you just imagine the panic in here come tomoz morning if the Windies look like walking out to bat at 11am? It won't be pretty!!
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yes kevin, what if eng are batting and its a good batting surface? Draw 1.3?
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ok Lix i agree that will be different.But thats why its 1.52 the market has overpriced in both factors for me.
Edgbaston is not a 5 min walk from my house and all i can see now is a few clouds and blue sky.I KNOW the forecast not pretty and I hope its wrong because I have tickets for all days but its a gamble that i think has more upside than downside. |
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fair play. forecast is not the best for today and its dry. if you live near the ground and we get more play in than expected you should clean up. all the best
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Well weather forecast has got a whole lot worse and we are only a day away:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655603 I'm tempted to re-back the draw heavily as we could easily see 1.3 before a ball is bowled but it's not nailed on. |
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Still can't get away from the fact these prices are based on forecasts, not actuals. Not saying they won't be right, but I'd be surprised if at some stage the Draw does not trade higher than it's current 1.48 The only reason I'm not laying it now is I think it will go lower still.
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Durham 2007 on my way to take my seat on Day 2 (after 1st day washout) stopped at b/f tent to lay draw at 1.22
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Think one thing to consider carefully here is once they do get out, Eng might go thru them like a hot knife thru butter. Cond's look to be about as bowler friendly as you could get for Eng, WI have nowt but pride to play for and as Lords demonstrated they really do not want to be out there in anything under 25c. If this goes to plan we will see 25c of course, 12c on Thurs and 13c Friday...
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Or Eng bat first and bat and bat and bat, all out / dec Sat PM?
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it's simple to win here gents, just back the draw
with the weather it's impossible to have a result here hope this helps pro morse 100 % strike rate never wrong |
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Not sure it will be easy for either side to bat long, but it's another possibility for sure.
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