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**Eng vs Windies 3rd Test - official pre-game chatter**
**Eng vs Windies 3rd Test - official pre-game chatter**
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Replies: 1,070
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Draw price on the slide, presumably due to the weather, which does look dire and about as far removed from conditions at TB as possible. Let's hope last week was not our Summer!
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2.9 the Draw!! Gotta assume that Thurs is expected to be wet, otherwise this does look very low.
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weather not at great for the duration according to early forecasts
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I'm thinking the Draw actually looks really good value at 2.94.
Four days of rain interuptions likely: http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/52.460801,-1.914995 http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Birmingham-UKXX0018 Saturday will be best day but still a chance of rain then as well. England will also be resting Anderson (and maybe Broad) so potentially less wickets extending the game. West indies have shown they can compete and whilst unlikely to win shoudl do enough with Rain interruptions to stay in the game long enough for a draw. I'd actually have the draw at 2.5 right now - definitely odds on. |
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Could have the classic English dilemma on the draw. Dodgy weather means less playing time, but wickets could tumble when they do get out on the pitch. Not sure how much work's been done on the strip but doesn't look like the groundsman going to get much time with it between now and Thursday.
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Agreed, what a contrast to TB where the appearance of a cloud drew gasps from the crowd.
 Not sure how much lower this can go on pure speculation, but if Thurs is wet we could see the Draw odds on imo... staggering! |
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It's not pure speculation though is it? - it's actually weather forecasts which are quite accurate now for the UK less than 7 days.
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Not accurate enough for me to back the draw at this price. Two days ago it was forecast to p1ss it down for that Jubilee concert tomorrow. Now it's forecast to be dry. Value has gone from the draw price imo. Was great at 4.9 a week ago.
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a reasonable point backed up by :
http://www.whatprice.co.uk/weather.html However, I reckon it's only going to need the loss of 90 overs to kill the match. |
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If you get 360 overs in i would be surprised if the game ends as a draw nigelpm1 - this Windies batting is brittle.
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we'll agree to disagree - without Anderson England will be weaker
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4 days play they'll definitely be a result. hard to fancy the west indies batting all that long in what are likely to bowler friendly conditions throughout the match. bound to lose 5 or more in a session at some stage.
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Anderson is high class no doubt - but Finn and Onions will pose plenty of problems to West Indies.
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sure but the point is the speed at which the wickets get taken if overs are taken out of the game. Losing your #1 bowler will affect that.
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Plenty of fair points guys, but the market's not listening!
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It is - the draw is moving shorter!
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Have occasionally watched Anderson in this series and considered whether he's actually been too good for the WI top order, and that he may be more successful against the SA batsmen. Only a theory and not totally convinced myself.
Can see Onions running through WI because he tends to bowl more wicket to wicket and doesn't move it as much as Anderson. I would be more worried about an attack of Broad, Finn and Bresnan as I see a bit less variety. |
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onions is probably the correct like for like replacement for anderson but finn will be rightly be apopleptic if he gets overlooked again
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AccuWeather has rain for everyday now.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/birmingham/b2-4/daily-weather-forecast/326966?day=6 |
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draw will be odds on @ this rate
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Another couple of days with no change in forecast and if it's not odds on I will be seriously tempted to put a lot on the draw.
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but so will lots of others I suspect taking it odds on. Any more than the loss of a day's play and it starts becoming very likely that the game won't finish.
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I know the accuracy of these internet forecasts can be questionable, but even the world biggest optimist might be a bit deflated by the latest offering from Accuweather...
 http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/birmingham/b2-4/hourly-weather-forecast/326966?hour=249 |
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im 9)% sure the draw will go heavy odds on... even more so if england bat 1st
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2.2!! Nearly there now kingmax to be fair.
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http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-UKXX0018?cm_ven=cricinfo_UK&cm_cat=grounds&cm_ite=weather&cm_pla=10day
lump and leave for me.. |
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Yeah, great call my end on this one as well
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incredible how slow the market was to react here. I almost reckon I could make a healthy living from this!
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Draw should be shorter than England. I think the prices flipped earlier.
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Looking at the weather forecast for Thursday and Friday we will be lucky to get a session in. I know that the forecast can change like the weather, but as has been said earlier the draw should trade odds on sooner than later.
Lump on the draw and wait for the rain to start tomorrow and if the forecast doesn't alter draw will be odds on. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/ |
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Yeah, now a 70% chance of rain Thurs/Fri, 60% Sat/Sun, 40% Monday. With temperatures also cool for this time of year not much chance of the pitch drying quickly either although I assume they have full covers at a decent ground like Edgbaston? Unless the forecast changes for the better quickly expect the draw to zoom in. Probably on wednesday when the situation become more obvious.
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odds on now..... how short can this go?
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Looking at the forecasts out there you wouldn't rule out 1.01....
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kingmax 05 Jun 12 10:59
odds on now..... how short can this go? sunshine1 05 Jun 12 11:28 Looking at the forecasts out there you wouldn't rule out 1.01.... The question is when to lay off my Draw back? Looking at the forecast it looks like a first day washout,and has the current price factored that in? But how many times do they get it wrong? The rest of the forecast doesn't look too good either so shall I wait and be greedy or go nice and green now? |
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1.89... and falling
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Not evenn thinking about laying it off yet. Four days of showers with Thursday likely a washout. Somewhere around 1.5 might tempt me before a ball is bowled though from a risk management perspective.
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ready to shorten again I think.
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Soz kingmax, reply was meant for aljohnson.
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