Olympics 2012
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Team GB over 62.5 Total Medals.
Team GB over 62.5 Total Medals.
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Replies: 410
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like paula radcliffe did more than once
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You've put swimming, gymnastics and triathlon as two each though made. I'd give spreads of about 1.0 gold on each of those sports, total 3.
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For instance the chance of Kerry Anne Payne winning is about equal to the chance of adlington losing.
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Should be interesting, probably 62.5 is on the little high side but you never know, i do think we will surpass the total achieved in Beijing, maybe mid 50s, not laying off my over 62.5 just yet though.
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Hockey, football and tennis will hopefully provide a few medals. Golds would be a bonus.
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Spread on athletics gold is 2.0 IMO, rowing(not including today) 3.0. Really need the boxers to clean up.
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Spreads could be wrong.
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of course they aren't all gonna come through but plenty of odds on shots in there and none worse than around 2/1.
like i said i'd be confident or around 17 but a few more of the good things will have to come through than looks probable/a couple of extra golds from the live outsiders even on a minimum expectation i'd have from tomorrow 3 rowing, 2 athletics, 1 gymnastics, 3 cycling, 1 triathlon and 2 boxing. that takes you up to 14. |
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Well I hope you're right mafeking Tbh I just wanna get fourth, however many golds that requires. Don't want anyone but china, USA or Russia beating us at our own games,
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I took some overs yesterday in the hope that the perceived 'slow' start had meant people were backing unders in too much
I took 56-59 medals at 8/1 at Lbrokes as well because that seems like value to me. at least considering their under 43.5 medals is only 2/1 (this should be much longer right) I figure there must be value somewhere in the rest |
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yes 2/1 under 43.5 looks very short
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i'd be really confident of that. australia have had an absolute shocker in the pool where they count on most of their gold medals and we're right in there with germany and russia despite our supposed terrible start
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Second is nowhere in Australia. One gold medal after five days of swimming is p1ss poor especially with the way gob sh1tes like magnusson were giving it the billy bi b0llox.
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There will be some blow-outs for sure from those expected (or fav) to win gold or get a medal. Where we are losing out in terms of pre-games predictions is with those coming through unexpectedly to get a medal. The only one so far seems to be men's team gymnastics and it is hard to see many more coming from under the radar in the remaining days.
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@TheVis
there have already been some blowouts, including a couple that were odds on in running (10m synchro diving, individual eventing) and some that were confident predictions like Florence in the C1 kayak only one surprise medal |
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GB rowing added a silver, which has been superbly followed up by peter wilson in the shooting adding gold, gold and silver added by the canoe slalom. Which takes the tally to four won today, with a guaranteed medal in the judo. 51 needed.
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Murray in the semis too.
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Cant do my sums. 50 needed.
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Sudoku_Junior 02 Aug 12 15:44
GB rowing added a silver, which has been superbly followed up by peter wilson in the shooting adding gold, gold and silver added by the canoe slalom. Which takes the tally to four won today, with a guaranteed medal in the judo. 51 needed. Problem is,Team GB are still only on par for the day ,still need 5 medals per day to hit the target.Unfortunately there will be quite a few days when GB will struggle to gain 2 medals per day. To be up to a par score ,GB need to be on 22.8 medals by the end of the day. |
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I dont know how we would be expected to gain 23 medals today.
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Five per day is an irrelevant statistic. There's more medals available as the competition goes on. Cycling for example which is one of our big hopes only starts today.
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surprise medal in judo
and very very very very welcome too    |
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49 needed. Gemma Gibbons adding a tremendous silver.
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Darlo Bantam
02 Aug 12 16:05 Joined: 27 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 3,152 | Blogger: Darlo Bantam's blog Five per day is an irrelevant statistic. There's more medals available as the competition goes on. Cycling for example which is one of our big hopes only starts today. Team GB,will also be competing in events in which they have a very low probability of gaining a medal.The cycling will not enable the team to compensate for our potentially poor showing in the events in which we traditionally perform poorly. Sudoku_Junior Sudoku_Junior 02 Aug 12 16:00 Joined: 01 Sep 08 | Topic/replies: 361 | Blogger: Sudoku_Junior's blog I dont know how we would be expected to gain 23 medals today. We need to have 23 medals to be on a par score, since the start of the Olympics.I fear that once the cycling/rowing is over GB will struggle to keep up with the medal count. Enjoy the next couple of days, I fear that GB will struggle for medals after this point. |
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I dont think you can look at this on a 'we need an x amount of medals per day' got to be a bit more fluid imo.
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You can't have it both ways. One on the one hand you're giving a raw statistic of five medals per day. Now you're taking away medals once the cycling and rowing finish even though they haven't yet.
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You can't have it both ways. One on the one hand you're giving a raw statistic of five medals per day. Now you're taking away medals once the cycling and rowing finish even though they haven't yet.
The point I am making is that once rowing and cycling are out of the way - GB will then have the unenviable task of trying to win medals in events that they have a lower profile in. Do you actually think that team GB will gain 63 medals ? |
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I personally am going to wait a couple of days until the cycling and rowing are out the way and will see about laying my overs bet off at a better price than it is now.
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No I don't. I've said above it's a very big ask. But you can't use two different sets of statistics in one argument. Either use a raw average of five per day or have achievable targets on different days to get to 63.
Personally, I think we'd struggle to get to 50. Today might have boosted those chances. The cycling is key. Depends how we do compared to Beijing. And this feelgood factor we've created could rub off on other competitors. |
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Darlo Bantam
02 Aug 12 16:50 Many thanks for your reply. |
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DQ'd from the womens cycling so there's a certain medal gone
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Definately didnt need that.
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Certain medal? They were odds against even before the DQ. Didn't you see the Chinese go quicker?
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yes but a certain silver even if the Chinese beat them
do keep up |
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Team GB sprint gold leaves 48 needed.
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Should be team GB'S best medal haul today ,at least 6/7.This good run should continue over the weekend.
Unfortunately I fear that as we head into next week, the medals will dramatically dry up. |
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Just looking on BBC website, GB had 7 medals at this stage in Beijing compared to 15 medals now, surely this could bode well for over 62.5 considering the total in Beijing was 47?
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Fantastic ,first GB medal of the day - go on GB and smash the 63 medal mark !
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whats the bet now. I am looking at gettig on this market to trade for a small profit.
I am thinking lay, then back tomorrow eve once we won a few |