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Good morning Cider,dropping but almost 5k new cases a day!
Ireland had single figure new cases the last few days(tested only) Given it was 8k 2 weeks ago.say 5k now,would it be reasonable to assume people getting infected are halving every 2 weeks? Maybe it is longer than you think but that is conjecture on my part. How can you label him a fraud now,the numbers were in late May and bound to decrease,that 8k was mentioned by every scientific advisor and politician days after OP. Whatever way you look at it,the late lockdown has resulted in a protracted end date of actually having control. |
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I highlighted it at the time lapsy, he was using out of date data, where the run rate is consistently down. I wouldn't claim to be smarter than he is, so he was being deliberately misleading to push his preferred narrative. This is not a game though, these people are playing with real lives and livelihoods.
As you may see from my figures, it's 0.055 to 2 significant dp but ONS has (technically correctly in statistical terms) rounded up but could just as easily be 0.5. My prediction of 1 in 1850 is close to being spot on, but remember that is a week old now so it will be less than 1 in 2000 currently. I would put it at around 3600 per day right now. Halving every two weeks is ballpark right I would say, with track and trace operational we can expect daily positive cases to go quite rapidly below 1000. |
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*0.05 sorry.
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Just as an aside HSE (Irish health service) says we better get used to mask wearing for the next couple of years,not the kinda thing you want to be hearing.
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