51 numbered pages including the appendix

The spread of the virus throughout the UK with so many regions registering so many excess deaths suggests the slow lockdown has been a huge error.

Relaxing the lockdown could lead to potential spikes anywhere in the uk

In Germany, the states are all doing their own cooking now regarding what opens when or stays closed. Led by chancellor hopeful alphamales Laschet (NRW) and Söder (Bavaria).

Though in all actuality it makes sense with the states being vastly different in things like population density and cases (e.g Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has 729 cases (45 per 100.000 people, 20 deaths), Bavaria has 45.000 cases (or 341 per 100.000 citizens, 2200 deaths)). Just need to make sure to filter out what's actually relevant to yourself.

In Germany the localised approach is actually the constitutional way of doing things. Disease control is the constitutional responsibility of individual states.

Why was it initially deemed inappropriate in the UK? Because you wouldn't really have the (political) structures to organise it?

Maybe the government that has decided the public can only digest slogans (with no more than 6 words) is afraid of confusing the public with a heavily localised approach.

Writing about it and actually making it happen are two very different things.

As for the reluctance to previously be open to the idea of different measures being in place in different measures of the country, my best guess is that it comes back to advice they were listening to from the behavioural scientists.

They were being told that the public wouldn't comply with lockdown instructions only to find they were putting them in place before the government.

how to keep the R rate down on tubes, in pubs, etc i havent a clue.

duffy what is the latest? i thought the fa said do not void the season. if it is voided, will we ever get started again? this thing could flare up again for who knows how long?

Let it rip. Lets take whats coming, after all everyone has their time and maybe this is ours. Stop being cowards and lets get it over and done. The fear at present makes me embarrassed to be British.

Running out of time, the F.A. are stating the "perfect world" scenario, but when time runs out there will be one question left, namely, which route will result in less litigation, void or duckworth lewis and that answer has to be void.

I would like to add for the record, Liverpool have been brilliant and fully deserve the title

many court cases what ever is done imo. scousers will need immunity to all the p1ss taking. when can football ever restart?

Jolly,

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-may-only-need-a-10-per-cent-infection-rate

If I was a Liverpool fan, I'd want the season voided and then celebrate the first league title after I don't know how many years with fans after a perfect season next spring/summer.

Really not sure what the science of this all is. The trouble is now as well as not believing the politicos we cannot believe Government scientists either as they lied to support Government Policy.

Not sure what the death rate is from contracting the virus due to lack of testing but 1.5% of those contracting it have died in hospital and care homes. Something like 1,500 have died outside but because of lack of testing we do not know how many others have contracted covid and lived so the 1.5% figure is somewhat skewed. Who knows if hundreds of thousands have covid already. Something like 232,000 of those tested have had covid. How many were tested I don't know.

The economic and financial crisis has been ignored when it arrives in greater clarity we will not be asking why the old were left to dies in care homes. We will not be asking what a shambles the Government have made of this.

The science will only show us with hindsight what we should have done. Unfortunately science has not been used with much foresight or common sense and the result is chaos.

This is not a party political matter. The day of reckoning will come but at the moment we are all doomed while being lead by Dorris Mainwaring and his bunch of hiding cowards and fools.

jollyswagman
12 May 20 20:54
Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 9,209 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
trader told us we may get immunity with only 20% infected i think

^

I was passing on from a paper last week by Gabriela Gomes of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine.

Here is the link....

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf

I am still looking for some kind of explanation as to why growth of Covid in the population goes for exponential to linear so quickly.

None of the forum geniuses (Edy, Jolly, Angoose etc) even dare speculate on this.

I am looking for answers and this paper may help with that.

Opinions please.

In idealized scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at random, herd immunity thresholds are given by a simple formula (1−1

I thought that report was very interesting IT and I'm sure we all hope it comes to fruition. It has been yet another parameter where the science has been extremely divergent. The scientists will of course have been fully aware of the risks of the different individuals and thus you'd hope not be basing their science on false assumptions regarding immunity building up in the belief everyone has similar risk, that would be daft wouldn't it?


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-who-uk-matt-hancock-a9510231.html

The World Health Organisation has condemned the “dangerous” concept of herd immunity for managing the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies programme said it was wrong to think that countries can “magically” make their populations immune to Covid-19.

It was reported in March that the UK government was hoping to achieve herd immunity by allowing the virus to make its way through the population. Health secretary Matt Hancock denied it was ever part of government strategy.

Dr Ryan told a press briefing in Geneva: “Humans are not herds, and, as such, the concept of herd immunity is generally reserved for calculating how many people will need to be vaccinated and the population in order to generate that effect.”

The WHO director added: “So I do think this idea that ‘maybe countries who had lax measures and haven’t done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?’ This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation.”

Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept usually reserved for describing how a population is protected from a disease depending on the levels of people vaccinated.

For instance, when between 90 per cent and 95 per cent of the population is vaccinated against measles, this should be enough to protect others who are unable to get an inoculation – such as babies before they reach the age at which they can be immunised.

Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government suggested at the end of April that ministers could still secretly be seeking to create herd immunity, having “softened” their tests for starting to relax restrictions.

“Maybe we are going for herd immunity? In other words, maybe the policy is to allow the virus to spread so that we have a large proportion of our population who have antibodies and, at that point, we will all be resistant to the virus and the lockdown can be removed?”

Dr Ryan said he was hopeful that Germany and South Korea would be able to suppress new clusters of the virus and praised their test and tracing surveillance programmes, which he said was key to avoiding large second waves.

“Now we are seeing some hope as many countries exit these so-called lockdowns,” he told the international news conference, adding that “extreme vigilance” was still needed.

“Responsible member states will look at all their population – they value every member of society and they try to do everything possible to protect health while at the same time, obviously, protecting society and protecting the economy and other things,” said Dr Ryan.

He added: “This is a serious disease, this is public enemy number one, we have been saying it over and over and over and over again.”

Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the WHO’s Covid-19 response, said preliminary data from studies has shown that very low levels of the population have actually been infected with the illness.

“There seems to be a consistent pattern so far, that a low proportion of people have these antibodies,” she told the press conference in Geneva.

“And that is important ... because you mentioned this word ‘herd immunity’, which is normally a phrase that’s used when you think about vaccination.

“You think what amount of the population needs to have an immunity to be able to protect the rest of the population? We don’t know exactly what that level needs to be for Covid-19. But it certainly needs to be higher than what we’re seeing in seroprevalence studies.”

Seroprevalence refers to the level of a pathogen in a population, as measured in blood serum.

Dr Van Kerkhove added: “What the sero-epidemiologic studies indicate to us is that there’s a large portion of the population that remains susceptible.”

Yes agree with a lot of that was just pointing out that there is still much speculation about infection rates and how in reality these play out regarding the notion of herd immunity in a population.

We've basically got into a terrible position 3-0 down early in the game.

The problems of direct/indirect consequences as time goes on with keeping masses locked up would almost certainly tip towards the latter.

Herd immunity .....
What is it ?
O A P cull is o k ?
Long term answer to a short term problem
Wear a facemask and find your farm shops

You'll have us all killed Insider Trader!

You have what you were pushing for anyway,people going back to work and getting the economy going for ya.

As someone else said and i thought it was very astute,when the politicians are all back in parliament it is probably safe, until then....