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HERD IMMUNITY IS THE ONLY SOLUTION?
HERD IMMUNITY IS THE ONLY SOLUTION?
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We need to re-open for the sake of society (and the economy). But we need to do it when the time is right. Every single country that loosens controls sees a spike in cases. If we do it soon with such a high base rate then the risk of a second wave and a catastrophic re-closing is extremely high. Politically, that's suicide for the government and there will be next to no confidence from the public next time they are told to go to the beach again.
The sad reality is that we were way too slow to close down, meaning the virus already had a firm hold. Therefore we get a widespread infection, a huge number killed and a much slower descent. These are just simple facts. Trying to ignore the last one and rushing to re-open is just naive. There's the other point too. There appears to be strong evidence that the reason the government has again taken a tougher line that it would idealogically want is that our European neighbours are less than happy with how we've handled it and are talking about only opening borders to countries with comparable levels of infection. If major trade and holiday areas such as France, Germany, Spain etc all opened up to Ireland and the rest of Europe but said we're barred, then - again - Johnson is toast. He needs to get his sh!t together quickly. |
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Edwina currie the environment sec who ate eggs live on air during salmonella poisoning outbteak was on itv this morning educating us on common sense,fortunately she didn't move on to tell us about jumping into bed with john major,
john selwyn gummer on tomorrow to educate us |
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Finished reading the document.
I kid you not, but there are four totally blank pages at the end plus the final page that only contains document identification details. |
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'Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.'
(Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten) Would explain why everywhere the number of deaths/cases drops after 4-6 weeks regardless of policy. |
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Why would it explain it other than to your satisfaction for your particular version of reality ?
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Dont you find it a little strange that no where in the world has the exponential growth of cases just gone up and up.
Regardless of policy the growth appears to slow down everywhere after 4-6 weeks with only a max of 20% being infected. |
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How else do you explain from Brazil to Germany to UK to USA to Belarus to Australia to Sweden that this leveling off is always happening?
It starts with exponential growth and then the growth rates stop and cases/deaths go up in linear fashion. |
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Gummer kid eating burger
I see a tory pattern around food and risk taking BE ALERT TO TORY SPAM |
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When folk stay home because of threat the virus growth slows
Funny innit And he wants to get people out and get them infected 100 threads on same subject.... |
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Angoose
12 May 20 20:29 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 16,357 | Blogger: Angoose's blog May 12, 2020 -- 8:22PM, InsiderTrader wrote: How else do you explain from Brazil to Germany to UK to USA to Belarus to Australia to Sweden that this leveling off is always happening? It starts with exponential growth and then the growth rates stop and cases/deaths go up in linear fashion. How many variables do you suppose there are in this COVID-19 box of tricks ? ^ You actually just sit on the fence on everything. Never have one opinion. Never put your neck on the line. Just criticise anyone who does have one. |
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trader have you really not found any experts offering any views of what we should be doing apart from the few who want to treat us like animals?
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who is it better to listen to, people who called this a pandemic back in january or those who said there was nothing to worry about?
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview
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how about someone who warned about a person getting a on a plane in china with a highly contagious disease and bringing it to the uk two years ago?
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IT, I'm just not in the mood to play your game today.
It's becoming rather tedious. |
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why has it taken you so long to reach this stage? i am through and out the other side
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Q: How close we are to achieving herd immunity?
A: To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus. The results of antibody tests suggest that in Europe and the US, in general, we are in the low single digits, but the tests are not reliable – all of them have problems with false positives – and herd immunity is also not the whole story. It assumes complete mixing of the population, but there are reasons – in part to do with the social networks people form – why the whole population may not be available for infection at any given time. Networks shift, and new people are exposed to the virus. Such effects can drive waves of infection. Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible. |
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you will like this one angoose, about the approaches of different schools of scientists
http://bostonreview.net/science-nature/marc-lipsitch-good-science-good-science#.Xrr6tR5xKeR.twitter |
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trader told us we may get immunity with only 20% infected i think
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You have the patience of an angel
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Reading the Guardian interview, and what a surprise to find that IT has highly selectively lifted and twisted a quote to support his theories
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Though thinking back, it also took jolly and myself like 3 years each to go to the dark side.
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i dont want to gang up on trader, i like him, he doesnt throw his toys out of his pram like a certain poster who blew his top yet again yesterday or the day before.
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I've been trying to get home to tell me about his AI programming, I'm genuinely interested, but he doesn't want to play
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at one stage i thought he was a bot sent to confuse us for hours on end, round and round in circles we would go.
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Q: What keeps you awake at night?
A: In Germany, people see that the hospitals are not overwhelmed, and they don’t understand why their shops have to shut. They only look at what’s happening here, not at the situation in, say, New York or Spain. This is the prevention paradox, and for many Germans I’m the evil guy who is crippling the economy. I get death threats, which I pass on to the police. More worrying to me are the other emails, the ones from people who say they have three kids and they’re worried about the future. It’s not my fault, but those ones keep me awake at night. |
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Yeah, IT himself has the patience of an angel, really extraordinary patience, with the amount of abuse I've thrown at him over the years. Never heard any insults back (no swear words anyway).
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How's the python studies going, Angoose?
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They are so alike I have to double check the name attached to the post
Then one carries on the others argument.... |
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he certainly isnt reporting anyone or trying to get anyone banned. i actually used one of his tactics back at him the other day, attributing a view to him he hadnt expressed. a bit naughty but i was feeling mischievous.
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no one here angoose, i didnt suggest it to you for that reason.
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"If the COVID-19 crisis has revealed two “competing” ways of thinking, it is not between two philosophies of science or two philosophies of evidence so much as between two philosophies of action."
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Have you read the governments 60 page document ?
Some decent stuff in it, but also bigger than it really needs to be, elements of a manifesto and early mitigation against the inevitable public inquiry. |
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Wasn't it originally announced as a 50 page document? Did they kindly add another ten pages after all the thick libtards complained on Sunday they needed everything explained to them in minute detail?
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