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InsiderTrader
14 Apr 20 12:21
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 14,569 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
Been told be be on lock down for 12 weeks.

Done 4 weeks so far.

I fail to see how in 8 weeks the risk of my wife catching the virus and dying will be any better. Sure there may not be such a rush on NHS beds but if it comes to going to hospital the most vulnerable are highly likely to die.

Is it likely the 'shielding' will have to go on until there is a cure or a vaccine... i.e. 12 months or more rather than just 3 months?

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By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 14 Apr 20 12:27
Is it likely the 'shielding' will have to go on until there is a cure or a vaccine... i.e. 12 months or more rather than just 3 months?


Possibly but hopefully there will be far fewer cases f the virus within the next month or so.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 14 Apr 20 12:28
yeah, reckon so. There may be a gradual relaxation of shielding if number of infections drops significantly. But to achieve that, you're relying on mass testing, contact tracing and containment and there's little evidence the govt are contemplating that. So it looks like the vulnerable are locked up till there's a vaccine.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 14 Apr 20 12:31
Indeed PP although the government still say they're committed to 100,000 tests per day by the end of April.
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 14 Apr 20 12:33
But not which april...
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 14 Apr 20 12:40
They still maintain they're on target to achieve 100,000 per day by the end of the month. We'll see.

Iirc, they also said there would be 25,000 per day by mid April. We're currently at around 18,000.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 14 Apr 20 12:43
That what I am thinking. It is going to be long time inside but I do not see the alternative whatever the government say unless cases in the population drop back to near zero.

Thinking about it the only reason we had lockdown is because the cases got out of control. Unless we do contact tracing and testing Asian style the numbers will pop back up when lockdown ends. The people dying right now will likely have got it pre-lockdown.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 14 Apr 20 12:49
It will be better because there will be less people with the virus, so less chance of catching it.  I don't see why we can't get to a similar situation to South Korea, Japan and Singapore in 2-3 months, where the virus is managed, and life continues with far less restrictions than currently.
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 13:02
If I were old or vulnerable to it, I wouldn't be taking any chances of catching it until there's a vaccine or cases drop to near zero. But I'd also be wary of a second wave in Winter. I don't think it's the UK's policy to get to a situation like S Korea etc in 2-3 months or at all. The only way that will happen in the UK is if there's a vaccine or more than 60% catch it. I would actually consider moving to a different country ASAP if the govt continue their policy of letting people get infected if I were over 70.
By:
1st time poster
When: 14 Apr 20 13:18
we,ll do roughly the same amount of testing til towards the end of the month ,whilst behind the scenes hancock to preserve his so called legacy will be putting in place,for one,two days only a massive rise in tests to his 100,000 figure,obviously the labs wont be able to cope and it,ll be weeks before everyone get,s a result ,but hancock will  say we tested 100,000 yesterday and tomorrow it will be back to under 20,000 for weeks but hancock will claim he,s delivered
same as him been on tv banging on about honda,dyson,mclaren etc making ventilators yet a month later not one has been given a .licence to manufacture them,
hancock who wanted over 30,000 in his words live on tv as many as you can make we will buy,now says we only need under 18,0000
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 14 Apr 20 13:20
The lockdown needed to be as brutal as can be to strangle the disease and dramatically stop transmission. To be fair, that seems the correct tactic but the unavoidable truth is that it does need to last several weeks to be effective.

That's when you reach the next stage, which is gradual relaxing of those rules. And we just don't seem to be remotely close to being ready for that yet. There needs to be the full suite of testing and contact tracing and any travel - especially international - needs to have the strictest tests to stop the virus crossing borders. It's hugely alarming that we aren't even considering that.
By:
1st time poster
When: 14 Apr 20 13:28
we don't seem to be doing anything but reel out big numbers
we,re on track to be the worst effected country in Europe yet still have 2500 spare icu beds, we want icu beds unused because theres no cemand for them not refusing access to them for care home,home patients because hancock wants to keep spare capacity for who no,s what
any tv pics of patients going into London nightingale yet,top dr said yesterday great feat but not fit for purpose,tv .media ,ministers seem to have benched it along with the 20,000 ventilators we don't need
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 13:37
The lockdown needs to continue indefinitely for the old and the sick. That could easily be 2 years with no vaccine but it will at least allow the rest of us to get back to some normality.

Let the young get back to normal as soon we have passed this peak and then over a month or so let out the 40,s 50,s and 60,s.
By:
Eric.Cartman
When: 14 Apr 20 13:39
In the near future someone needs to come up with an idea on how to turn a 2nd hand ventilator into something useful.
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 13:42
Re testing/contact tracing after lockdown - it is alarming but not at all surprising because your government still wants herd immunity and for the spread to continue. It does not want to stamp out all cases like in Asia.
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 13:43
Hancock has lied through his teeth all the way thru this. He began by saying the UK was well prepared for a pandemic and has lied at every stage since.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 13:47
So why cant we lock up the vulnerable and let it spread rapidly across the rest of us and get it all over with?
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 13:49
because hospitals will become overwhelmed and the death rate from all illnesses will rocket
By:
FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK
When: 14 Apr 20 13:57
they couldn’t lay straight in bed they **** in government

All you want is to be told straight Respect that more

Got stay in doors another 3 weeks , get on with it

Go see your family’s and friends up to you

Than if they die well you where warned

Say it how it is
By:
1st time poster
When: 14 Apr 20 13:59
hospitals would get overwhelmed when experts were predicting 80% of population would be infected ,the numbers are thought to be way lower than that now,
we,re supposedly at the peak the spread numbers in the community under the ration of one, 2,500 available icu beds, 5 unused nightingale field hospitals,if we had the ratio of spread at under one when this began we wouldn't have locked down
I agree with lockdown but even if you remove it now,the public are scared ,worried and like sweeden the public will police it thenmselves stray away from public teansport,big gatherings,pubs, etclong way back from here with or without government  intervrentions

just been on my local news building a field hospital in sunderland be finished by june but head dr in area just said they probably wont need it ,they,ll probably build another just in case, FFS
By:
mrcombustible
When: 14 Apr 20 14:03
There is no guarantee a vaccine will be found and it is a big ask for one to be ready in 18 months.

If I was in my 70s I would prefer to take my chances rather than be locked up indefinitely
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 14:08
lurka. Overwhelmed by who exactly? The young and healthy are barely effected by this. Sure there would be a few unlucky people but i cant imagine its going to be many.

How many healthy under 40's have died so far. I think its less than 10.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 14:09
I agree with mrcombustible totally.
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 14:10
overwhelmed by people needing treatment all at the same time. The virus spreads like wildfire if you don't lock down. Why do you think all of these Nightingale Hospitals are being thrown up in a week even with a lockdown in place?

1TP I don't think you are at the peak yet.
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 14:14
744 dead today in England only, 10 in NI, 40 in Scotland
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 14:16
lurka. But once this peak is past and numbers fall back if you keep the vulnerable locked up and let out the young and healthy the vast majority wont need any treatment. Just look at the numbers of deaths in England so far. Its nearly all people with existing conditions or over 60.
By:
Angoose
When: 14 Apr 20 14:18
Any chance that you could provide some data to back up your claimed figures ?
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 14 Apr 20 14:19
I don’t think anybody should be locked up except the Government

Older people and vulnerable need protecting. I would shop for my mother in any case. We need to get the Country back to work soon.

An example of what could have been done is keep the garden centres and DIY open with social distancing and protection of the workers with latex gloves, masks and plenty of hand sanitizer

People need to be kept occupied and there are plenty of nagging wives around ensure the home jobs got done. It would have saved tax payer money, helped keep the economy going and kept the lockdown secure.

They would not have been allowed to keep the food kiosks and kitchens open like they did at a Richmond Park then blamed the punters!

Construction, Road and Rail Workers should be allowed to get back working too imho.

The Tube in London and buses in all urban areas would be a problem for me

I noticed today the Postie was not wearing latex gloves....why not?

Still too much dumfukkery going on and little leadership from the Government
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 14:20
Yes, but what you said earlier was to let it spread rapidly. You can never do that. When you get over the peak you can open up gradually but if the spread goes up to a level where hospitals might get overwhelmed again you will have to lock down again and you will have to make that decision about 2 weeks beforehand based on projections as you did the first time. Also might be a second wave in Winter. Agree that for older people they need to isolate until there's a vaccine or large immunity no matter what.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 14:22
Yes all my figures come from NHS england daily releases which you can see for yourself. On average in recent days its reported that 94% of all deaths had a pre existing conditions. It also shows only 95 under 40 have died and its logical to assume that a similar 94% of those had illnesses. Over half of all deaths were over 80.

Its clear that the risk to healthy under 40s is minimal.
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 14:22
But I think the UK government is more concerned about the economy than most and will open up as early as possible
By:
Angoose
When: 14 Apr 20 14:24
Here are the ONS figures for England and Wales up to April 3 by age grouping.
Intersting that they don't compile these official figures within the same age groupings quoted by Dotchinite.

    Age Group        Total        %   
    15-44        57        1.3%   
    45-64        529        11.7%   
    65-74        838        18.5%   
    75-84        1,596        35.3%   
    85+        1,506        33.3%   
    Total        4,526        100.0%   
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 14:25
lurka Im talking about letting it spread once you have isolated the old and sick and perhaps the fat as well. I dont believe that a rapid spread amongst the rest is going to pressure the NHS that much.
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 14:26
It is minimal but not if hospitals get overwhelmed and a lot of them would still need hospital treatment of some sort. When hospitals get overwhelmed people can't get treatment and relatively healthy and younger people die at higher rates and people of all ages can die from all sorts of illnesses for the same reason.

Also think there is a scandal brewing in UK care homes. Why are they not being open about the death numbers? In a few other Euro countries 50% of the deaths are in care homes. UK is still only disclosing hospital deaths.
By:
Dotchinite
When: 14 Apr 20 14:26
You appear to be calling me a liar when ive told you where i got the figures from.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 14:28

Apr 14, 2020 -- 2:25PM, Dotchinite wrote:


lurka Im talking about letting it spread once you have isolated the old and sick and perhaps the fat as well. I dont believe that a rapid spread amongst the rest is going to pressure the NHS that much.


I think of all governments, the UK's would be most willing on the planet to let it spread like that.

By:
lurka
When: 14 Apr 20 14:29
Trump prob would be as well, maybe not as much, but he has an election to think about and won't have enough time to sort this out and get the economy back up to speed before then, unless he can get it postponed.
By:
1st time poster
When: 14 Apr 20 14:35
obr predicts 2 million extra unemployed, will they include furloughed workers how does that work,if pubs,gymsleisure etc are allowed to open does furlough pay stop staraight away some of these loanbs etc arnt due top be given out for 2 months in june,if people police themselves for 6/12 months stay away either through choice  or lack of money the companies taking .loans will go anyway, cant see many interested in booking hols this year,
a lot of what the government money was supposed to try and stop will probably happen organically anyway
By:
GoBallistic
When: 14 Apr 20 14:36
People in the high risk group are recommended to follow the gov advice (no contact for 12 weeks) but ultimately it is their choice whether to do so.  Indeed the gov has acknowledged that some within that group (e.g. patients with terminal cancer) are likely to choose not to follow the gov advice and rightly so
By:
1st time poster
When: 14 Apr 20 14:38
back down to un der 15,000 tests in a day ,10,000 under what doris promised 6 weeks ago and a mere 85,000 short of handjobs target for just over 2 weeks time
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