It certainly read like that to me Angoose. So you now accept the figures i was quoting were accurate.

Based on the fact that virtually no healthy people under 40 have died what makes people think that if this virus could be spread solely amongst this section of the community it would overwhelm the NHS.

5,252 new confirmed cases reported today, a daily average of 5,029 between April 11 and April 14.
The daily average for the first ten days of April was 4,799.

This suggests we have not yet arrived at the peak.

I also thought they were building critical care capacity?

Here is a description of the various measures that are charted.

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I think resentment already exists from the young and they are the ones who are locked down for no personal benefit. In fact lots have lost an awful lot. THe old and sick shouldnt be resentful of anything as all this is for their benefit.

Yep

I have every sympathy for the youngsters. My generation is Fceking things up for them

IT is saying that he's in the extremely vulnerable group. This is not to be confused with the people deemed to be vulnerable, eg over 70.

The government and advisers have said all along, the number one aim is to reduce the stress on the NHS as a whole, ie ensuring anyone who needs care in a hospital can get it. So the measures have reduced the spread while increasing NHS capacity.

The extremely vulnerable group is a massive challenge. My understanding is that the letter said shielding was to last at least 12 weeks. It may come down to amounts what is a personal choice, once the pressure on the NHS is fully under control.

You would have to assume that the UK govt are going to let it spread even more after the first peak if they are building numerous hospitals that haven't been used during the first peak. There is no other reason why they'd build them. Focus still seems to be to let people get infected after reopening rather than tracking and tracing like most countries will and WHO advise.

My feeling is that the government will be resistant to keeping the extremely vulnerable under effective house arrest and separated from family indefinitely. It will come down to a personal choice.

Id sooner be dead than locked away in terror personally- we will all be dead eventually, it's about quality of life and expecting the young to be holed up protecting a tiny percentage of people when the government is encouraging elderly people to sign do not resuscitate documents is not only complete hypocrisy but madness. If the vulnerable are concerned, they should be indoors and allow the healthy to live their lives which lets face it is limited for everyone

Interesting post Wolf.

My situation is my wife has chronic heart problems. I read with her issue mortality if end up in hospital with Covid is around 50%.

I could not live with myself if I went out and brought it back into the house.

But can we really be isolated for over a year? I am a gambler but no idea how to measure up this risk.

What do you do with all the people that aren't in the at risk group but do not want to come out until there is a vaccine, let's assume all the "young" will, but what about if you've got a bunch of 40/50 year olds that fill 1000's of jobs that are fearful with no vaccine available amid the likelihood that 1000's more will get infected before this is over and don't want to risk it.

Do we tell them that they need to pull themselves together? There might be more jobs available for the young to fill so it might work out.

Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts
Scientists say one-time lockdown will not bring pandemic under control

C
Hannah Devlin Science correspondent

@hannahdev
Tue 14 Apr 2020 19.44 BSTLast modified on Tue 14 Apr 2020 20.08 BST
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Physical distancing measures may need to be in place intermittently until 2022, scientists have warned in an analysis that suggests there could be resurgences of Covid-19 for years to come.

The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that a one-time lockdown will not be sufficient to bring the pandemic under control and that secondary peaks could be larger than the current one without continued restrictions.

One scenario predicted a resurgence could occur as far in the future as 2025 in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment.

Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, said: “Infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people. Unless there is some enormously larger amount of herd immunity than we’re aware of … the majority of the population is still susceptible.



“Predicting the end of the pandemic in the summer [of 2020] is not consistent with what we know about the spread of infections.”

In its daily briefings, the UK government has not outlined plans beyond the current restrictions, but the latest paper adds to a building scientific consensus that physical distancing may be required for considerably longer in order to keep case numbers within hospitals’ critical care capacity.

Papers released by the government’s scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) in March suggested that the UK would need to alternate between periods of more and less strict physical distancing measures for a year to have a plausible chance of keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity.



The prospect of intermittent distancing raises difficult questions about what guidance will be given to high-risk groups, including over-70s and those with compromised immune systems.

It may be possible to relax distancing measures periodically while maintaining cases within a volume that health services can cope with, but the grave health risks of infection to some people will remain the same until a vaccine or highly effective treatments are available.

New treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity could alleviate the need for stringent physical distancing, according to the paper in Science. “But in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022,” the authors conclude.


The overall numbers of cases in the next five years, and the level of distancing required, were found to depend crucially on the overall current levels of infection and whether all those who are infected gain immunity and, if so, for how long. The authors cautioned that these are big unknowns and that a precise prediction of the long-term dynamics is not possible.

If immunity is permanent, Covid-19 could disappear for five or more years after the first outbreak, the paper suggests. If people have immunity for about a year, as is seen for some other circulating coronaviruses, an annual outbreak cycle would be the most likely outcome.

Asked to speculate on which of these scenarios was more likely, Lipsitch said: “Reasonable guesses are that there might be partial protection for close to a year. On the long end, it might be several years of good protection. It’s really speculative at this point.”

Under all scenarios considered, however, the models found that a one-time lockdown would result in a resurgence after restrictions are lifted.

Serological surveys, assessing the proportion of the population carrying protective antibodies, will be crucial to establish whether people have long-lasting immunity.



Other teams have found evidence that the immune response varies across people, with those who only have mild or no symptoms showing a far weaker response.

Prof Marion Koopmans, the head of virology at the Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam, whose team is studying the antibody response of those infected, said complete and permanent protection would be unusual for a respiratory virus.

“What you would expect to see – hope to see – is that people who have had it once … the disease would get milder,” she said before the latest paper was released.

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburgh University, said: “This is an excellent study that uses mathematical models to explore the dynamics of Covid-19 over a period of several years, in contrast to previously published studies that have focused on the coming weeks or months.

“It is important to recognise that it is a model; it is consistent with current data but is nonetheless based on a series of assumptions – for example about acquired immunity – that are yet to be confirmed. The study should therefore be regarded as suggesting possible scenarios rather than making firm predictions.”

be ironic if the knuckledraggers after Brexit, have to go around the streets,shopping,pubs etc wearing afacemask for the next 2 years,after wanting them banned, ,wonder what doris will label everyone for wearing them,

Sorry to hear of your wifes health issues Insider, perhaps it warrants speaking to a cardio specialist in more detail to get clarity

Why do you need to speak to a specialist?

If you are vulnerable protect yourself or those close to you if they are.

If she has to go to hospital there is a good chance she will die.

If she goes on a ventilator there is more than a 50% chance she will die.

Don’t take any chances, keep her safe and be careful when you go out.

Maybe wolf might suggest you take some advice from the Prime Minister, The Health Secretary or The Chief Medical Officer. I have noticed you have been one of the few Insider Trader to defend them. Perhaps you should ask them for advice on how to avoid catching the virus and killing your wife.

the number of cases in Sunderland has jumped from 365 recorded yesterday to 647 today, a rise of 282 patients.
In South Tyneside, it has gone from 125 cases up to 217, a rise of 92 people

* Correction 16 March

Yes IT as an older person I'd be most worried about all these Nightingale hospitals being thrown up but remaining empty. I don't think the UK is past its peak like some on here do. But it looks to me like they are containing the spread they let get out of hand in the early stages and will then open up the lockdown and let it spread even more once the initial wave has peaked and they have more capacity in place.

They still want herd immunity ASAP and we already know that they are worried about a second wave in Winter. They are not building all of these hospitals for nothing or for them to be left empty.

Another mug taking case numbers as if that's all of them Herd immunity is the only way to defeat a virus whether you like it or not, in the absence of a cure. That's the reality for the whole of Europe now, whether you achieve it via infection or a vaccine or a bit of both. The question is how many deaths are you willing to allow in order to get there. How quickly are you willing to let it spread to get there sooner? And from all the evidence, the UK is the most willing country in Europe if not the world to get there ASAP.

On an optimistic note maybe in 8/9 weeks time the rate of an infected person passing it on goes well below what the scientists hoped, ie something like infected person infects .43 of another persons,you know i am saying but not putting it great. It is quite a long time away.

I would agree with being suspicious of "official" advice, the gut is screaming.Northern Ireland is supposed is be pinpointing where cases and or deaths occured( i read that somewhere).
So in the dark, if i walked say through downtown Coventry city centre i would like to know what percentage of the people around me have it,they do County numbers and specific hospital deaths but that isn't enough but that goes back to testing again.