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PROFESSOR WHO PREDICTED 500,000 UK DEATHS....
PROFESSOR WHO PREDICTED 500,000 UK DEATHS....
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Replies: 183
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Ty
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Last three March registered deaths for England and Wales : 48,664 51,229 43,946
Can we please have the explanations for the variations now. |
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Variations? Death is unpredictable goose.
The wider point is that 10s of thousands die every month without lockdowns. No one says anything. No one apparently cares. No celebration when the figures drop dramatically nor grief when there’s a spike of thousands. |
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they don't die a 1000 a day over a few week period, they die over a 4/5 month so called winter crisis period
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last 3 march , as angoose points out, means approx 1500 a day
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last March was one of the warmest on record.
April will be the true test - if 2019-ncov is the deadly killer we're told it is figures should be much higher than average. anyone think they will be? |
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Every ones a "moron or a "Cretin" if they don't lay awake at night worrying if the NHS will be overwhelmed tomorrow, sorry but I don't.
I await the 'you won't be sayin that if you get it" replies, and they may be right, but that won't change the fact that the vast majority of people are not, and never were in danger from the virus. When listening to the endless NHS reports you could be forgiven for believing the only casualties in this are the ones arriving at Hospital, the whole economy been shut down with no idea when that will end, millions have lost their jobs, some in the same households, you would have to have been there to know what sort of pressure those people are under, so excuse us "morons" if we question whether there might have been a better way to go about dealing with this. |
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Possibly you missed the announcements of the various financial support packages made by the government.
I would have thought that these extremely generous measures were a direct recognition that millions in the country are suffering. |
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the whole economy been shut down with no idea when that will end, millions have lost their jobs, some in the same households, you would have to have been there to know what sort of pressure those people are under, so excuse us "morons" if we question whether there might have been a better way to go about dealing with this.
At this moment in time, the long-term consequences do look bleaker than the short-term consequences. It's so hard to work out though. But you're right that we must have the right to question what measures are being taken. It's the very essence of democracy. |
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the economy would have took a big hit either way if hundreds of thousands of people are ill at the same time but what do you think they should have done ?
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That seem to be your favourite question, like a stuck record.
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and you have not answered it once
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i take you are missing the pub
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Have you asked me before? possibly you've ask almost everyone else.
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and not one has answered,so lets answer for you,you couldnt give a crap how many people die as long as you can get in the pub
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Angoose: pronounce that CODID-19 isn't a factor.
Not sure anyone is saying that. More that covid-19 is part of a much wider context which is being ignored at all levels. The use of data by the experts is amateurish and downright ignorant. Sir Patrick Vallance spoke about the ‘overlapping’ of deaths last week but nothing since from any of the government advisors. It’s a crucial part of the jigsaw being left on the floor. The so called mortality rates would make an 11 year old maths pupil blush with embarrassment. The folly of dividing deaths by confirmed cases to reach a MR is bilge. |
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Given the quality of your responses you can hardly blame them, goodnight.
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sweet dreams
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angoose must be so excited over these numbers - pick a number
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Some maps and a little bit of analysis to go with the figures pondered above about year-on-year deaths.
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality |
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History will say this lockdown was done by a mistake,the pooter got it wrong
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History will say that a ban on travel from China and later Italy and any country thereafter with a breakout should have been put in place. That's what the Asian countries did and the Russians. Once it got out of hand a lockdown was inevitable. No government is going to allow it to spread unchecked throughout the population as there would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of avoidable deaths, including a lot more young people who wouldn't be able to get treatment.
The reason Taiwan was so successful is that it made a mess of SARS when it broke out and it was considered a national tragedy that they said they could never let happen again and they made sure they didn't. It would have caused relatively minor economic pain domestically compared to an indefinite lockdown and all the consequent job losses etc etc. And there was a real-time blueprint for how to deal with it effectively from the Asian countries and Russia. Instead Boris told everyone to take it on the chin, that he shook hands with hospital patients and that he wanted to encourage the spread to create herd immunity, despite there being no historic examples of herd immunity being achieved successfully without a vaccine  and that he wasn't concerned with it spreading at sporting events etc. It's a bit late now to be complaining about lockdown measures. |
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Darlo ...they have chosen specific weeks though to suit their argument lol
also the dates shown only really apply to Italy and don't include deaths that would've /might've happened without a lockdown don't get the point of those maps etc or what he's trying to say . only thing i will agree with is that a lot of deaths would have happened anyway |
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History will ask if we locked down from day 1, would the lock down needed be far shorter than the length of the lock down we are now facing, off the back of a number of weeks where we had people and borders wide open, and has it cost an unnecessary loss of life, that's the question!!!
They said that the lock down was always coming, they weren't married to the herd immunity theory but were worried about people going stir crazy, which they are right about, a look on here shows that. They did want the virus to circulate before the lock down, but did they jump to late. |
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Interesting Darlo.
The general point is that excess winter mortality is not discussed by the media nor government. People are being told all covid deaths are exceptional and a special case. The ONS here and the equivalent abroad all carry stats for EWM. It’s a vital tool to understand if one winter is better or worse than another. England and Wales had 50100 excess winter deaths in 17-18. |
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Have people stopped from dying from flu or pneumonia these days or are they just classed as No.19?
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Assuming covid deaths are ‘extra’, since 20th March about 16500 people have died in the UK.
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Wonder what the suicide rate of people who've lost their business they've put their entire life into, their jobs, went mentally pear shaped under lockdown, had a divorce that wouldn't have happened etc will be.
It most certainly won't be zero. |
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Doesn't matter from what an old person dies from its corona virus and it goes unchallenged.
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Yes but none of the measures are in response to the current death rate, which might well be lower than flu. They are in expectation of a worse than Italy-like situation if nothing is done. The death rate jumps once hospitals are overwhelmed and that is almost guaranteed to happen.
Yes, there are death fluctuations every year. I don't get what point that Off-Guardian article is trying to make. The death rate hasn't jumped in most countries yet, most are weeks away from it, and everyone knows avoiding that as much as possible is the purpose of lockdown measures, yet the author of the article asks why we are having a lockdown? Seems he misses the point of it all as well or else he's trying to mislead the reader and has an agenda. If there was a Europe-wide pandemic in those previous years the death numbers would have been tens of thousands higher with a lockdown and hundreds of thousands or millions higher without and restrictive measures would have been taken. There wasn't and that's why we didn't have a lockdown in those years. The author can't be that thick. Were the spikes in previous years predictable or almost guaranteed to happen within a predictable window or guaranteed to overwhelm the health service? I highly doubt they were. Lower weather temps wouldn't even have been a reliable prediction or considered guaranteed to happen. It's a nonsense article and the next few weeks should make that obvious if it isn't already. Do you think they are complaining about a lockdown in Italy or Spain or do you think they wish they'd brought it in weeks earlier? |
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the figure you are looking for is approximately 140,000 lung and other related deaths over the winter period which produces nil panic
we have just added a considerable extra number or it appears we have |
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I think it’s clear that a lockdown every winter would save lives given that viruses kill thousands.
The reality is that even in dire winters of 50k excess deaths no lockdown was implemented. The reason lockdowns are not used is because of the appalling economic, social and health consequences they bring. What also continues to be missed is that 10k die every week in the UK. |
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We will go to school on Sweden & their approach when its all over.
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Yes but was 50k excess deaths guaranteed to happen, was the health service overwhelmed then and was that guaranteed to happen, did all of the 50k excess deaths happen from the same source? Surely not.
I doubt 50k excess deaths would be enough for a lockdown even if it could be predicted in advance to a high degree of certainty. In a worldwide pandemic of a novel virus you are talking about a real risk of a large multiple of 50k excess deaths from one particular source alone. And you can say that not all deaths will be from C19, some will die with it from something else. But likewise where a health service is overwhelmed you basically have no health service for the entire population not already in a hospital and then you get younger people dying who wouldn't with treatment and people dying of eg strokes and heart attacks who don't have the virus but can't get treatment and wouldn't be counted in the virus numbers. It's a ridiculous comparison with any period where there wasn't a pandemic. |
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Injera
It has not been missed that about 10k people die every week, the health services are basically set up to cope with that sort of number (& add a bit for a bad week/ month) What we were expecting was 200,000 deaths over a 10 week period. These people)& the many who would have survived but needed medical help would have swamped the NHS. The economy would take a massive hit even if UK government didn't impose restrictions. The social distancing is not because there will be 20,000 deaths it is because there would be 200,000 deaths. (& economy still smashed) |
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Sweden's approach is no different. Their way of life means that most of the initial restrictions are in place 100% of the time, that's why the spread has been slow. They will step up the restrictions like everyone else shortly. The notion that they are taking a different approach is nonsense.
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The 50k excess deaths was due to weather and the failure of the flu jab. Once the death toll mounted a lockdown could have been put in place. It wasn’t deemed necessary.
The 200-500k figure is disputed, of course. I’m not disputing a lockdown can save lives. I’m questioning how proportionate it is. I think there’s a wider issue of the capacity of the NHS. More is expected of it every year. How well placed is it to cope with something out of the ordinary. |
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None of it from overwhelming of the health service? That is the main issue here.
And weathermen can't be trusted to get the weather right tomorrow never mind a full winter. |