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PROFESSOR WHO PREDICTED 500,000 UK DEATHS....

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By:
dave1357
When: 28 Mar 20 17:47

Mar 28, 2020 -- 5:34PM, Injera wrote:


Will global spending on healthcare contract if the world economy crashes?If so, thousands will die.


the economy is going to crash if the virus is allowed to carry on unrestricted.  Plenty of health care workers will also die causing knock on deaths.

By:
Just Checking
When: 28 Mar 20 17:51
1 doctor to section now. Just saying, captain tin foil...
By:
terry mccann
When: 28 Mar 20 18:00
Your not Michael Gove by any chance n.c are you?Laugh
By:
Make my hay
When: 28 Mar 20 18:18
Me - I think your numbers are way off the mark Terry, more like 20,000 deaths but 19,000 of those are very old and sick so it's really 1,000.

This is the reason I said that..

This is the first 100 people who've died in the US from coronavirus.

I've highlighted the ones that are very old, sick or both.

Death toll state by state



CALIFORNIA: 14

- A patient in Placer County who had underlying health conditions was the first coronavirus-related death in the state.
The person, described as elderly, was likely exposed while traveling February 11-21 on a Princess cruise ship that was going from San Francisco to Mexico, according to Placer County Public Health. The patient had been in isolation at Kaiser Permanente Roseville Medical Center.
- An "older adult" woman who was hospitalized for a respiratory illness died March 9 in Santa Clara County.
- A woman in her 60s died in Santa Clara County. The woman was hospitalized for several weeks and is believed to have contracted the virus through community transmission, the county's health department said.
- A resident of Sacramento County who had underlying health conditions and was in an assisted living facility, the county public health department said. A county official told CNN the resident was in their 90s.
- A woman in her 60s who was visiting friends died in Los Angeles County. She had a history of extensive travel, including a long layover in South Korea, according to Barbara Ferrer, director of public health for Los Angeles County.
- A person was reported dead in San Mateo County on March 15.
- A Sacramento County resident who was older than 70 and suffered from underlying health conditions.
- A person in Santa Clara County.
- A person in Santa Clara County.
- A person in Riverside County.
- A person in Riverside County.
- A person in Riverside County.
- A man in his 60s died in San Benito County on March 16. He had traveled to Thailand and had an underlying health condition.
- A man in his 50s who was hospitalized died on March 17.
COLORADO: 2
- A woman in her 80s who lived in El Paso County.
FLORIDA: 6
- A patient died in Santa Rosa County following an international trip.
- A person in their 70s who tested presumptive positive in Lee County following an international trip.
- Three people who lived at assisted living facilities died in Fort Lauderdale. The deaths happened at separate facilities and each of them had different levels of symptoms.
- A 77-year-old man linked to an assisted living facility in Broward County died. He had "significant" underlying medical problems, health officials said.
GEORGIA: 1
- A 67-year-old man who was hospitalized at WellStar Kennestone Hospital in Marietta since he tested positive for coronavirus on March 7.
ILLINOIS: 1
- A woman in her 60s with an underlying condition who lived in Chicago. She had contact with an infected person.
INDIANA: 2
- A person over the age of 60 died. The patient's significant other was also infected and they could only see each other through a video call.
- A person in their 60s died in Marion County.
KANSAS: 1
- A man in his 70s who lived in a long-term care facility in Wyandotte County died.
KENTUCKY: 1
- A 66-year-old man in Bourbon County died.
LOUISIANA: 4
- A 58-year-old who lived in Orleans Parish died. The patient, who had an underlying medical condition, was hospitalized at Touro Infirmary Hospital and Medical Center.
- A 53-year-old who lived in Orleans Parish died. The patient was hospitalized at Touro Infirmary Hospital and Medical Center.
- A woman in her 80s who lived at Lambeth House nursing home died.
- A person who lived in Orleans Parish died.
NEVADA: 1
- A man in his 60s who lived in Clark County died. He had been hospitalized and suffered an underlying medical condition.
NEW JERSEY: 3
- A 69-year-old man from Bergen County who was treated at Hackensack University Medical Center died March 10. He had a history of diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, gastrointestinal bleeding and emphysema, said Judith Persichilli, the state's health commissioner.
The man, who traveled regularly to New York City, had a heart attack a day before he died and was revived. He died after having a second heart attack.

- A woman in her 50s died after being hospitalized at Centra State Medical Center.
- A man in his 90s died after being hospitalized at Hackensack University Medical Center.
NEW YORK: 15
- An 82-year-old woman with emphysema died in a New York City hospital.
- A 79-year-old woman had been suffering from heart failure and lung disease before contracting the virus. She died in a New York City hospital.
- A 78-year-old man with multiple pre-existing conditions died in a New York City hospital.
- A 56-year-old man with diabetes died in a New York City hospital.
- A 53-year-old woman with diabetes and heart disease died in a New York City hospital.
- A patient died in a New York City hospital.
- A patient died in a New York City hospital.
- A 64-year-old person died in Rockland County on March 12. The patient had other "significant" health problems.
- A man in his 80s who had been in isolation at St. Catherine's Hospital in Suffolk County died.
- A man in his 90s who had been isolation at Huntington Hospital died.
OREGON: 2
SOUTH CAROLINA: 1
SOUTH DAKOTA: 1
- A man in his 60s with underlying medical conditions died, according to Kim Malsam-Rysdon, South Dakota's secretary of health.
TEXAS: 1
- A man in his 90s who lived in Matagorda County died.
VIRGINIA: 2
- A man in his 70s died from respiratory failure.
- A man in his 70s died in the state's Peninsula region.
WASHINGTON: 54
- A man in his 50s who was hospitalized at the EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland.
- A man in his 70s died February 29. He was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth and had underlying health conditions.
- A woman in her 80s died March 1. She had been in critical condition at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 90s died March 3. She had been hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A man in his 60s who visited Life Care Center died March 5.
- A person died in Snohomish County, said Heather Thomas, a spokeswoman with the Snohomish Health District.
- A person in Grant County.
- A woman in her 80s who lived at the Issaquah Nursing and Rehabilitation Center in Issaquah died March 8. She had been hospitalized at Swedish Hospital in Issaquah.
- A man in his 80s who lived at Ida Culver House, a retirement community in Seattle, died March 9. He was hospitalized at the University of Washington Medical Center.
- A man in his 80s who was "connected" to Josephine Caring Community, an assisted living facility in Snohomish County.
- A woman in her 90s who lived at the Redmond Care and Rehabilitation Center nursing home died March 10 after being hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A person in Snohomish County.
- A man in his 80s died March 11. He was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A man in his 70s died March 9. He was hospitalized at Overlake Medical Center in Bellevue.
- A man in his 80s died March 11 at Swedish Hospital in Issaquah.
- A person died in Snohomish County.
- A person died in King County.
- A person died in King County.
- A person died in King County.
- A man in his 80s died March 15.
- A woman in her 70s died March 15.
- A man in his 80s died March 11.
- A woman in her 50s died March 8 at Harborview Medical Center.
- A woman in her 70s died March 14 at Northwest Hospital.
- A woman in her 90s died March 12. She lived at Redmond Care and Rehabilitation Center nursing home.
- Two people died in Clark County March 16, health officials from the county's health department said.
Life Care Center nursing home residents:
- A woman in her 70s died March 2. She was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth Medical Center.
- A man in his 70s died March 1 at EvergreenHealth and had underlying health conditions.
- A woman in her 70s died March 1 at EvergreenHealth. She had underlying health conditions.
- A woman in her 80s who was never hospitalized died at her family home February 26.
- A man in his 50s died February 26 after being hospitalized at Harborview Medical Center.
- A woman in her 90s died March 3 after being hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A man in his 70s died March 2 after being hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 80s died March 5. She was hospitalized at Harborview Medical Center.
- A woman in her 70s died March 5. She was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 80s died March 6. She was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 80s died March 6. She was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A man in his 90s died March 5. He was hospitalized at Harborview Medical Center.
- A woman in her 80s died March 4. She was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 90s died March 8. She was hospitalized at Harborview Medical Center.
- A woman in her 70s died March 8. She was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 90s died March 3.
- A man in his 90s died March 5. He was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 60s died March 9. She was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth.
- A woman in her 90s died March 6.
- A woman in her 90s died March 6.
- A woman in her 80s died March 4.
- A woman in her 60s died March 14. She was hospitalized at Franciscan Medical.
- A woman in her 70s died March 12.

CNN's Jamiel Lynch contributed to this report.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-united-states-deaths/index.html

It makes me wonder how they knew that CV was what killed these people, especially this poor man..A 69-year-old man from Bergen County who was treated at Hackensack University Medical Center died March 10. He had a history of diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, gastrointestinal bleeding and emphysema, said Judith Persichilli, the state's health commissioner.
The man, who traveled regularly to New York City, had a heart attack a day before he died and was revived. He died after having a second heart attack.   
By:
terry mccann
When: 28 Mar 20 18:22
Blimey Charles,poor old buggers were on the way out anyway,its called cooking the books,for what reason though??
By:
Make my hay
When: 28 Mar 20 18:30
Looks like they are trying to make the virus seem more deadly than it really is.
By:
Darlo Bantam
When: 28 Mar 20 18:31
As I posted on today's thread,

All 246 deaths in England either aged 63+ or underlying health conditions.

Albeit, this will kill other people (outside those criteria) and kill some people way before their time.
By:
Mexico
When: 28 Mar 20 18:47
Hay

Many of those deaths you posted about said. In their 60s or in their 70s.  Since when were we living in Logan's Run? Do we actually kill everybody when they turn 75?
These guys "in their 60s" could have lived for another 20 years & been happy. The U.K. State pension doesn't kick in until 67 (will be 68) .

Even younger people "with underlying medical conditions " - are we saying a 40 year old with asthma was on their last legs anyway so actually for the best that they died?


As for TM.  FFS a 10 year old can understand that the fall in expected deaths from this professor is because the government are following scientists advice.
By:
terry mccann
When: 28 Mar 20 18:52
Whatever this thing (mex) utters the opposite is true-a chit-chat golden rule.
By:
1st time poster
When: 28 Mar 20 18:54
normal flu is spread out over what nhs call winter crisis nov to end of march if every year normal flu killed the same amount spread over 5 months was squashed into a 5/6 week period ,we,d be reacting against normal flu as we are corona, and with this virus lob another half/3rd on top
By:
Just Checking
When: 28 Mar 20 18:55
Mexico, you are posting a Terry thread. Logans Run? In his world, as it would then be a fact it wouldn't even
be worth considering, the object of attention would shift, Logan's run wouldn't even be Science Fiction. The
little pulsating hand (normal to everyone else about to die and therefore not of interest) would become the
alien lizard global nutcase conspiracy. Or whatever nonsense happened to float by in moon unit land.

You can't argue with people who are clearly headcase totally mental,
unless perhaps you are qualified. Stop trying.
By:
Make my hay
When: 28 Mar 20 18:56
Mex - Would you agree that normal flu kills mainly people in their 60's and upwards.
By:
Mexico
When: 28 Mar 20 18:58
Oh dear Terry

The virus is worldwide. It has nothing to do with me.

Don't do the opposite of what I (& government) suggest.

You should stay safe, don't mix with large groups of people, be responsible, stay away from people showing signs of illness, avoid meeting people not in your household- even if friends & family, stay alive, help the NHS by following Government advice.


Now Terry , what part of tgat simply message is so difficult for you to understand & follow?
By:
duffy
When: 28 Mar 20 19:02
If we are now in the business of "letting go" all of the elderly, many of whom have lived fruitful and prosperous lives,you know, people that have contributed to society, it should be easy then, going forward "let go" all the b u m s , scroungers, general filth clogging up society, you can also throw in all convicted paedo's murderers, rapists etc, that should free up a lot of space and ease the drain on society, we're going to need the resources going to the "right" people after all.
By:
Mexico
When: 28 Mar 20 19:03
Hay

Explain "normal " flu. The largest deaths by one strain of flu was in 1918/1919 - young healthy people died then.


Of course older people are more likely to die - what do you suggest- we don't bother to give them medical help if over 60 & basically carry on working, going to pubs, watching sport as normal. After all professor thought would only be 500,009 deaths if did f-all. If 450,000 are over 60 then why stop having a party?
By:
Make my hay
When: 28 Mar 20 19:05
Normal flu victims in their  60s could have lived for another 20 years & been happy. Not sure why you're running on about Logan's Run for.
By:
Make my hay
When: 28 Mar 20 19:15
The largest deaths by one strain of flu was in 1918/1919 - young healthy people died then.

Well at least we know it's not that strain now.
By:
Mexico
When: 28 Mar 20 19:16
Hay
WTF has this virus got to do with "normal flu"

How many NHS workers die from treating people with "normal flu" . How often is the excel Center turned into a hospital because of "normal flu"

How often is it predicted that "normal flu" woukd kill 500,000 if we carry on as normal.

How often do the WHO issue those types of warnings about "normal flu".

Enjoy Logan's Run a Hay - if they are over 60 should doctors or nurses help ill patients?
By:
Mexico
When: 28 Mar 20 19:23
Hay

We knew that Covid 19 wasn't the same as "Spanish flu" weeks ago.
It isn't even a type of flu.

Do try to keep up. Maybe less "news" from DavidTheSonOfGodIcke.com
By:
Make my hay
When: 28 Mar 20 19:24
Mex - you may want to try and put those questions in google, you may find some answers on there.
By:
1st time poster
When: 28 Mar 20 19:26
highly contagious , if we,d just carried on  regardless nhs would have been grippled.crashed under the weight of admissions,work places would have ground to a halt with millions off sick at home unable to get to work,those who did would just increase the numbers , public would be screaming for government to do something and everything that's happened would have happened anyway organically,at least this way food,bills,rents,mortgages have been protected
chaotic meltdown
managed meltdown
but meltdown either way
By:
moisok
When: 28 Mar 20 19:32
Over a million matched on a belarus prem league game   wtf  - nice pickings yet again though

amazing scenes

some bettors are catching on
By:
Eric.Cartman
When: 28 Mar 20 19:46
millions off sick ???...most would have very mild symptoms some none at all...plus you would have to assume they all catch it at the same time which is not gonna happen...if your gonna post sh!te at least make it balanced Sh!te
By:
Charlie
When: 28 Mar 20 20:36

Mar 28, 2020 -- 7:32PM, moisok wrote:


Over a million matched on a belarus prem league game   wtf  - nice pickings yet again thoughamazing scenessome bettors are catching on


Way off topic so I'll apologise in advance but can't keep letting this fool say he keeps winning on football betting. He has never ever posted a bet before time, he's the BigMart of football.

By:
moisok
When: 28 Mar 20 21:41
CHARLES  of the starving polar bears

if you were doing ok on the betting with a good scheme would you tell everyone how you do it

one or two on here do know as I have liased and discussed it with them

but with your record on polar bears  making out they are nearly extinct but went fro 15000 to double and more that figure

I would guess your system wouldn't work
By:
moisok
When: 28 Mar 20 21:44
you are wasting your time obsessed with death figures etc whereas if you checked out some other figures in various new emerging soccerball markets  then I might be prepared to listed to you

for the flu  you need to stay in doors if elderly

keep away from people

and hunker down

whilst having a poke at markets which still involve over a million matched

but you will just come on here to make political points

stay safe
By:
moisok
When: 28 Mar 20 21:45
ps  so I am a fool for making profits on eastern soccer ball games

are you some sort of raycyst

are we not allowed to bet on them on racial purity lines?
By:
moisok
When: 28 Mar 20 21:46
proper charlie seems to not like me ha ha ha   - but my bank account seems to appreciate me filling it
By:
1st time poster
When: 29 Mar 20 10:24
sort of making the point that if those with mild symptons carry on going to work virus spreads quicker, further,if they get to a predicted 80% of people getting it, that's about 50 million,10% get it rough that's 5 million off ,sick well known people on every day mp,s,sports stars,news pundits,dr,s nurses saying it was to bad to go to work,
very small percentages of big numbers = millions, but by all means carry on playing mr ostrich
By:
Manoleeds
When: 29 Mar 20 10:32
From Medicine Balls (who is a GP) in Private Eye  “those who die (from Covid) may have died  from something else in the not too distant future” and “Overtreatment of the elderly when they are seriously ill often just extends suffering. Before we all demanded to live forever , pneumonia was known as the “old man’s friend”(with a dose of morphine on top)”. Depending on which source you use, flu kills up to 20000 in the UK annually -but we don't have the economy crashed and liberty take away when we have an outbreak. It will be true that a John Doe in perfect health will die from Covid
for reasons unknown but another John Doe in perfect health will leave the house and never return due to a car accident, random stabbing, hit by scaffold collapse etc. I have a friend who takes the view that spending an infinite amount of money is worth it if one person survives. How can that be right?I'm with the Swedes who are taking a few precautions but not going over the top.
By:
1st time poster
When: 29 Mar 20 10:37
no ones arguing with any of the above like hitchens did they have any answers to what happens when the nhs becomes overloaded crashes, crumples due to the numbers arriving and everyday stuff on people which wouldn't be dying isn't taking place, or what would they have done in italy
By:
potlis
When: 29 Mar 20 11:35
What professor Ferguson doesn't make clear in his analysis/modelling is whether his 500,000 prediction would be over and above the 600,000+
who die every year of other causes.

Of course we could discuss the professors analysis/modelling of the social/personal consequence of following his recommendations, unfortunately he hasn't done any.
By:
A_T
When: 29 Mar 20 12:08
noone waant to discuss these numbers in terms of numbers who die anyway
By:
GAZO
When: 29 Mar 20 12:14
this is to stop most of those numbers all coming in a short space of time
By:
Injera
When: 29 Mar 20 12:17
Last week, Prof Ferguson told MPs these measures could see the eventual death toll cut to ‘substantially less’ than 20,000. Meanwhile a paper by separate colleagues at Imperial predicted just 5,700 deaths if the lockdown continues.


Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated.

Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: ‘Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.’

But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial’s foot and mouth model was ‘not fit for purpose’, while in 2011 he said it was ‘severely flawed’.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8164121/Professor-predicted-500-000-Britons-die-coronavirus-accused-having-patchy-record.html
By:
terry mccann
When: 29 Mar 20 12:21
So already we see people shopping others to the police,similar to WW2 when people did the same,reporting to the SS to earn brownie points.
Imagine this on speed! A cashless society (planned) a points system (planned) where points are lost and won by your actions. Cant happen! Nor could house arrest up to a week ago but look at us now-heavy times guys.
By:
Fire-and-Ice
When: 29 Mar 20 12:32
Interesting Injera. I suppose if the professor keeps updating/backtracking his model
then he could get it right in the end
He obviously sees martingaling as a wise betting strategy.
By:
Mexico
When: 29 Mar 20 12:35
Terry

People have been "shopping others to the police " from the day the police force was set up - I.e. A long long time before WW2.
Before everyone had a mobile phone or every household had a landline there were public phone "to shop others to the police "

If people break the law - especially if they endanger life then people will inform the authorities.

Simple message- stay at home & save lives.

If you want to spread a deadly virus then just be selfish and carry on meeting friends & family. There is a real risk of serious illness and even death for those over 60 or those with existing health conditions.
By:
terry mccann
When: 29 Mar 20 12:37
mex knows whats planned for us but of course he will never tell you, you are so vile,what went so wrong to make you hate us?
By:
Mexico
When: 29 Mar 20 12:38
Injera

The professor may have a "patchy record " but he is not alone in saying we should be avoiding other people.
Pretty much every country has listened to their doctors & have imposed similar restrictions as UK
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