We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
|
By:
imo
|
|
By:
If you can't grasp the basic fundamentals then you are a lost cause on the subject
|
|
By:
More 'because it happened subsequently it happened consequently' conjecture on a short-term (but then again, aren't all Leaver's scare-stories) item of detail
|
|
By:
The pound fell immediately after the referendum Brexit result
however that is not the same thing as saying that it fell because of Brexit |
|
By:
The pound fell that day for sure. As it has fallen many times since 1937.
There have been many triggers to cause the daily movements but no one can deny the low term trend since 1937 is decline against the United States as they become stronger and we become weaker in terms of our economy. I urge you to look at the long term charts before rushing to judgement. |
|
By:
If you can’t grasp that simple fundamental then you’re a lost cause
|
|
By:
It seems that there is room for manoeuvre . May is the problem according to le monde _ economics _ L'UE n'abandonnera pas l'Irelande _ last paragraph.
|
|
By:
Hanx you are another one to ignore. You can argue about BREXIT, but obviously if you haven't the knowledge or capacity to understand the most basic fundamental any opnion on a the surrounding topic has no relevance.
As for Mark Carney. You have no idea of all of his predictions so that comment is meaningless. It is however obvious that anyone who reaches the position of the GBoE is amongst the intellectual elite and he is surely the person with the best information and resources and a plthora of highly intellect staff at his disposal. He'd make you lot look like Dumb and Dumber. An analogy I'd use is asking Hugh Taylor or Mr Smith from Cleethorpes on who is likely to win the GN. Mr Smith hasn't a clue. At least you know Hugh is very knowledgeable in his field and will likely pick one of if not the horse with the best chance of winning. You are like Mr Smith. Not got the first clue but still sounding off why you think Hugh is a mug while you stick your pin in the paper or pick the horse with the name you like best. That's the reality |
|
By:
no , some professions require knowvkedge and expertise
An electrician or a plumber or a surgeon requires knowledge and skill and expertise An economist doesn’t , don’t confuse one with the other |
|
By:
Clyde ignores everybody who doesn't agree with he's fear,like all lefties, stop worrying and believing all the scare stories clyde, honestly, for someone who thinks he's intellect is above others, you make yourself look a fool
|
|
By:
If Mr Smith tried to tell me that the Gold Cup Winner had less chance of winning the Grand National than the winner of a low grade handicap at Plumpton who is 34 lbs out of the handicap then I would know to ignore anything he said about horse racing
|
|
By:
I'm not a leftie dambuster. Wrong again!
|
|
By:
I've only ever voted Tory fwiw. History tells us far left socialism doesn't work. However I'd sooner vote for Tony Blair than the current Tory mob. I'm hoping for the traditional parties to fragment
|
|
By:
So you'd rather vote for a corrupt murderer who should be in prison for war crimes,and who lined he's own pockets whilst doing it, than The current tory government.
Thanks for clearing that up |
|
By:
lfc don't confuse the limited skill required in gaining a City and Guilds qualification in plumbing and heating with the straight A's and an Oxford/Harvard/Cambridge degree in statistics or mathemetics needed to grasp a limited understanding of a highly complez area with many unknown variables, which is beyond 99% of the population.
|
|
By:
Until there are charges it's all BS. Another area where you claim to be an expert. You are not in any position to make any judgement as towhether Blair is guilty of anything, so why post as if you are.
|
|
By:
Not only is the value of £ directly impacted by the Brexit vote - 24/6/16 saw the biggest ever one-day fall of a major currency - the relationship continues to be proved on a day by day basis, as news of the spectre of hard-Brexit rears up or recedes.
Furthermore, the value of £ directly affects the wealth of every household in the UK and, as such, Brexit has already made you poorer. Four obstacles inhibit people from accepting that the value of their currency directly affects their wealth. The first is invisibility: people heard news of "the biggest ever one-day fall of any major currency", but when they checked their bank accounts they found that their balance was unaffected. On login, the exchange interface that they saw was still populated in sterling and their betfair balances were the same ; most would have been unaware that its value had dropped overnight against someone matching their bet in another currency. But if they had been conscious of becoming the poor-relation to 99% of folk elsewhere, many were unconcerned. Sure, most people like to "keep up with the neighbours" but so what if they were now poorer than JohnnyForeigner? Wasn't Brexit all about turning inward? "Currencies fluctuate", as Iain Duncan Smith said reassuringly. An ever lower pound was good for exports. Besides, there was nothing to be done; within memory the country was living with fixed-rates interspersed with devaluations - "This does not affect the pound in your pocket" - and a limit of £50 a holidaymaker could take out of the country. The legacy is still with us, for many, the exchange rate is just a fact like the weather. So in today's connected world, where one can take control of one's pension or switch money anywhere in the world pretty much at the touch of a button, most people would rather not have that choice to make, because it takes them out of their comfort zone. They might get it wrong. Awkward. Safer to do nothing. Which is the third obstacle. And finally, a lot of people need to be told what to worry about, and they're not going to get the instruction to worry about the value of £ from their usual Brexit-sponsoring sources. Not yet, anyway. If the currency was to be impacted by a Corbyn Govt, or the value of their houses were to fall 13%, the shires would be squealing like logs under a chainsaw. But Brexit is "the national interest" so they're playing it zen publicly, while in private Brexit-fundamentalists like Rees-Mogg and Redwood have long since shovelled money out of the country. |
|
By:
Hanx you are another one to ignore. You can argue about BREXIT, but obviously if you haven't the knowledge or capacity to understand the most basic fundamental any opnion on a the surrounding topic has no relevance.
As for Mark Carney. You have no idea of all of his predictions so that comment is meaningless. It is however obvious that anyone who reaches the position of the GBoE is amongst the intellectual elite and he is surely the person with the best information and resources and a plthora of highly intellect staff at his disposal. He'd make you lot look like Dumb and Dumber. An analogy I'd use is asking Hugh Taylor or Mr Smith from Cleethorpes on who is likely to win the GN. Mr Smith hasn't a clue. At least you know Hugh is very knowledgeable in his field and will likely pick one of if not the horse with the best chance of winning. You are like Mr Smith. Not got the first clue but still sounding off why you think Hugh is a mug while you stick your pin in the paper or pick the horse with the name you like best. That's the reality That's cool, assuming you are still reading me I couldn't understand your first sentence above, but divined from the rest of the post you were arrogant and patronising and I'm through with discussing this issue with peole like that, so mutual blocking seems in order. |
|
By:
lfc I did a Macro Economics module at a poor University when I did my Business Studies degree, so I do have some very basic understanding of the subject. There were over 100 people doing the module and I got the highest grade. However, I was a numbers guy and considered it one of my non bankers, (considered the marking to be more subjective and that I was probably fortunate and was definitely surprised to get top marks) so didn't pursue any linked subjects.
|
|
By:
Clydebank there are professions that require competence and knowledge and skill , such as an electrician and those that don’t such as an economist
Don’t confuse one with the other ps u couldn’t give two hoots who you vote for , labour or Tory , whoever As long as you respect the vote That’s another little basic fundamental that if you don’t understand you’re a lost cause |
|
By:
By the way I agree with you , Hanx talking rubbish about Blair
|
|
By:
"Not only is the value of £ directly impacted by the Brexit vote - 24/6/16 saw the biggest ever one-day fall of a major currency - the relationship continues to be proved on a day by day basis, as news of the spectre of hard-Brexit rears up or recedes.
Furthermore, the value of £ directly affects the wealth of every household in the UK and, as such, Brexit has already made you poorer" Exactly. It's the first basic and most obvious fundamental. If you accept that you are likely to have not enough knowledge to make a decision (which is nearly everyone) but could have the basic reasoning to understand that, then the only sensible vote was to stay in the EU. People like to think they know more than they do on things, when it's really a simple decision. What do I know and where am I just a guesser. The simple failure to accept they are just guessers and the inability to grasp that basic aspect. |
|
By:
sorry meant dam buster *
|
|
By:
I will try and explain again Clyde
The fall in the pound may have occurred as a result of the Brexit vote It didn’t fall as a result of Brexit |
|
By:
Please keep it simple. Even the leader of the largest opposition Party looked lost and fed-up during PMQ on 'Brexit'.
|
|
By:
I have no political persuasion but found this interesting on Mark Carney
After yet another humbling U-turn... Why does Bank of England boss Mark Carney keep getting it SO wrong? His six-year tenure at the Bank of England has divided opinion Admited he was too gloomy about the immediate impact of the Brexit vote On the day of his appointment four years ago, Mark Carney was hailed by George Osborne as ‘the outstanding central banker of his generation’. He was the rock star banker who said he was coming to ‘where the challenge is greatest’ by swapping the Bank of Canada for the Bank of England. But his tenure at the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, which will now run for six years to June 2019, has divided opinion – particularly since the EU referendum campaign. Stage struck: Mark Carney was the rock star banker who said he was coming to ‘where the challenge is greatest’ And yesterday the governor was forced to admit he was far too gloomy about the outlook for the UK following the Brexit vote. To his critics, it was just the latest embarrassment since the 51-year-old started the job. As the first foreign governor in the Bank’s three-century history, he arrived in London in July 2013 with his wife Diana and four daughters to great fanfare. He took the Tube to work, arriving before 7am. But his pay – a thumping £874,000 a year, including a £250,000 housing allowance – had already raised eyebrows. His flagship policy The Canadian’s first big decision as governor, in August 2013, was to launch his flagship policy of ‘forward guidance’ as he sought to kick-start an economic recovery. The idea behind this was to reassure households and businesses over the future so they could plan accordingly. He began by saying interest rates, which had been at 0.5 per cent since March 2009, would not rise until unemployment had fallen from the level then of 7.8 per cent to 7 per cent – something he did not expect to happen until late 2016. Unemployment in fact fell below 7 per cent in early 2014 (and has now reached 4.9 per cent), but interest rates remained unchanged. Previous role: Mark Carney was Governor of the Bank of Canada before he took over the top job in the UK The unreliable boyfriend In a speech at Mansion House in the heart of the City in June 2014, the governor conceded that ‘growth has been much stronger and unemployment has fallen much faster’ than expected. This, he said, had triggered ‘great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike’. It was widely thought that rates would rise in the first half of 2015, but in a fresh attempt to offer some sort of guidance, Carney said: ‘It could happen sooner than markets currently expect.’ The comments sent shockwaves through the financial markets and drew criticism from MPs, with one famously accusing the Bank, and by extension the governor, of behaving like an ‘unreliable boyfriend’ for blowing hot and cold over when rates would rise. Rather than giving certainty, it was the first sign that Carney’s flagship policy could actually create confusion. New rate rise warning Despite his comments at Mansion House the previous summer, and solid economic growth, by July 2015 rates were still frozen at 0.5 per cent, but Carney again suggested this would soon change. In another headline-grabbing speech, this time at Lincoln Cathedral, he said the decision over when to raise rates ‘will likely come into sharper relief around the turn of this year’. ...and then a U-turn In January 2016, with a new year under way, Carney conceded that there would be no interest rate hike any time soon. ‘The year has turned, and, in my view, the decision proved straightforward: now is not yet the time to raise interest rates,’ he said. With speculation mounting that there would be no change in interest rates until 2017, the Canadian said the decision would ‘depend on economic prospects, not the calendar’. Carney also revealed that he may serve a full eight-year term as governor, having initially agreed to do the job for just five. He told MPs that he would make a decision by the end of the year, but was urged by Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, to decide as soon as possible. ‘The sooner you feel able to give us this clarity, the better,’ he said. Accountable: Mark Carney giving evidence to the Economic Affairs Committee at the House of Lords Another flip-flop Suddenly faced with questions in February 2016 over whether interest rates could in fact be cut, Carney was asked if the next move was still likely to be up. ‘Absolutely,’ he said. ‘More likely than not the next move in rates is up.’ But just weeks later Carney appeared to have changed his mind, and said: ‘We could cut interest rates towards zero.’ Joins Project Fear With the EU referendum campaign in full swing in May, Carney warned that the vote was ‘the most immediate and significant risk’ for the UK economy. Incredibly for a sitting central bank governor, he claimed that a vote to leave could lead to a ‘technical recession’. His comments sparked fury among Brexit supporters as Osborne – the architect of Project Fear – said the intervention was ‘a very big moment in the debate about the economic costs of leaving the EU’. His Brexit gloom On June 24, the day after the referendum, Carney addressed the nation just hours after David Cameron announced he was standing down as prime minister. With the financial markets in turmoil, Carney warned of ‘volatility’ but insisted: ‘We are well prepared for this.’ He offered to pump an extra £250bn into the financial system to stabilise the markets and said ‘we will not hesitate to take any additional measures required’ to keep the economy on track. Working together: George Osborne with Mark Carney, both of whom were accused of being too gloomy about the impact of Brexit on the UK economy Then, in August, the Bank cut interest rates to a new low of 0.25 per cent and warned that a further cut to 0.1 per cent was likely before the end of the year. It also restarted the money printing presses, pledging to pump another £170bn of emergency cash into the economy. Although Carney ditched his warnings of recession, the Bank said that the UK ‘is likely to see little growth in the second half of this year’ and pencilled in expansion of just 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and none at all in the fourth. And crucially, the Bank slashed its growth forecast for next year from 2.3 per cent to 0.8 per cent. Changing forecasts: The August inflation report (left) predicted much slower GDP growth than the November report (right) published this week Growth surprises By October, official figures showed the economy actually grew by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter – five times faster than predicted by the Bank. After days of frenzied speculation over his future, Carney said that he will stay at the Bank until the end of June 2019, extending his term by one year, rather than until 2021 as many had thought. Changing expectations: The Bank of England now expects inflation to rise more sharply than it had previous thought (Source: Bank of England) Now more humiliation Carney was yesterday forced to admit that he was far too gloomy about the impact of the Brexit vote on the economy. The Bank raised its growth forecasts for 2016 from 2 per cent to 2.2 per cent and for 2017 from 0.8 per cent to 1.4 per cent. That was the biggest upgrade to a growth forecast the Bank has ever made. The Bank also resisted another cut in interest rates, saying the latest ‘guidance’ it offered in August has now ‘expired’. Carney even warned rates may have to rise to combat inflation. To many observers, it was just the latest U-turn from the ‘unreliable boyfriend’. |
|
By:
He’s a guesser like the rest of the highly paid economists , they almost bankrupted the country in 2008
|
|
By:
/\ Article written for The Daily Mail /\
|
|
By:
Not you lfc1971, the one above you..
|
|
By:
lfc fwiw as regards your plumbing and electrician analogy, I recall an incident in the sociology module on the course where everyone in the seminar had to rank professions by prestige and one of the professions was a self employed electrician. Out of everyone in the seminar I ranked the self employed electrician higher than anyone else, which might surprise some people on this thread.
|
|
By:
lfc it fell because of the BREXIT vote and the expectation that we were to leave. I strongly suspect it would have fallen further had BREXIT been a certainty after the BREXIT vote, but as I don't know how much the markets considered it to be a certainty that's not a definite call. If it was considered 90% certain then it's really here nor there.
|
|
By:
Whereas I didn't consider the job to be the most intellectually challenging, I gave more credence and respect to the fact that they were their own boss and had the balls to set up on their own than anyone else and remember arguing the point.
|
|
By:
no it doesn’t surprise me that you ranked the electrician highly
The point is that many of the layabouts sat aroynd you were surprised Now I know and know the pound fell after the Brexit vote It didn’t fall because of Brexit I can’t emphasise too much that difference |
|
By:
As I said it fell because of the expectation of BREXIT
|
|
By:
I'm not quite sure how anyone with any knowledge, even the guessers on this thread, could infer anything else
|
|
By:
Yes , now that’s the difference , you see what you have to remember is that they cannot predict the future
Their track record proves that they are no better at that than the man in the steet Not only are they incompetent , they are dishonest and biased Put that into your little equation |
|
By:
empty suits the lot of them
|
|
By:
Not much better than our MPs when it comes to that
They , well some of them , might have went to ox bridge I’m not impressed with them either , sorry |
|
By:
You see there are professions that are and have measurable competence , such as a bricklayer or an electrician or a surgeon
And there are professions that do not , such as economists |
|
By:
Almost every one of our top highly paid economists failed to spot the banking crisis
They are the same ones around today without any shame carrying own with their bull.. |