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Cheltenham Festival

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FOYLESWAR
07 Apr 20 14:39
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 33,503 | Blogger: FOYLESWAR's blog
brief write up ,sire de berlais should be going for this  handicaps are out off t a mark of 159 now ,a dual pertemps winner last time off top weight  did it better than 2019 off 145 ,loves the course ,proven in big fields and trainer adept at having him ready for one race blinkers  seemed to  bring out a bit more from him 16s best price now but given his profile likely to just be prepping for the big one in march so expect some lack lustre looking runs in the winter months and could drift  and i will be topping up on this fella .
selection stayers hurdle ...sire de berlais 16/1 win bet ......opinions and input welcome ........glaktcyfa!

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Replies: 129
By:
irishone
When: 07 Apr 20 20:35
Foyles if you think the horse is going to drift in the time between now and the race why are you    putting this up as a bet now at 16\1 ? This makes very little sense to me.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 07 Apr 20 21:03
i think it may drift with the emphasis on " may" i have had some on at bigger a week or so  after his win but a tipster(andy holding )  put it up on monday for the stayers next year and its into 16s now ,normally i get on at a decent price early and keep backing them steadily untill i am happy with my position and at my target of possible win amount ,but with this one its a bit more tricky as gordon wanted to keep his mark as low as possible for the pertemps so indifferent runs over the winter were expected . this time he wont be going for a handicap so no need to worry about ruining his mark  and likely to be running in graded trials /preps in small fields rather than big field handicaps . have only had a tentative bets so far and my hope is that he will drift a bit throughout the season but if he shortens on the back of a win or prominent showing  then i am still on at a decent price .
By:
sageform
When: 12 Apr 20 17:39
Interesting thought but he will be 9yo in March. If the Pertemps had been a long term plan, it had been 3 years in the making as he had not won since a 4yo hurdle in France. I suspect that if Emma Lavelle finds out what ailed Paisley Park, he is still the one to beat. The rest of this year's World Hurdle field were moderate.
By:
irishone
When: 12 Apr 20 18:38
First point of reference for me in this race is the previous years Albert Bartlett, it has become a good source of form to follow last couple of years. Five of the first six were Irish trained this year, but the  overall record of Irish horses in the stayers is relatively poor  !
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Apr 20 18:39
7/1 Paisley Park is value if one could overlook his predicament in this race last month. He's only 9 next year; Benie is 10.
By:
sageform
When: 14 Apr 20 18:36
The good old days when horses ran up a sequence seem to have come to a halt since Big Buck's retired. Baracouda and Inglis Drever also won more than once this century. Only 2 horses apart from those three above won it from 2000 to 2013.
By:
FatPunt
When: 20 Apr 20 12:44
Could easily see Champ re-routed here. Never been a massive Paisley Park fan and I think this is a poor division. Two I like at this early stage would be Thyme Hill and Latest Exhibition. Regarding the former of those two looking back, Richard Johnson would like a another go at his ride in the Albert Bartlett. He's only had seven career starts and is underexposed. Benie Des Dieux, Honeysuckle and Envoi Allen will likely run elsewhere. Goshen is even quoted in the betting which I find laughable considering that he is being targeted at the Ebor and will more than likely go down the Champion Hurdle route next jumps season.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Apr 20 15:31
I think Champ is most likely Gold Cup bound given he won the RSA after falling in the race prior. With a year of fencing under his belt, a year older and with a better prep the Gold Cup takes priority.

BDD is 11 next year, and could be going chasing like Faugheen. I do not think 3m is what Honeysuckle wants either.
By:
Hibore
When: 20 Apr 20 16:13
Don’t waste any money on Champ going to the Stayers. Firstly I don’t recall any RSA winner going hurdling after winning...at least in the last 20 years. JP has waited for this horse to come along before naming him CHAMP. He’s probably going Hennessy or Betfair, King George or Denman and then Gold Cup.

Thyme hill is definitely in with a shout and my tentative selection at the moment. Look forward to chatting with you over the next 11 months !
By:
FatPunt
When: 20 Apr 20 17:38
CHAMP won't be winning any of those grade A chases unless his jumping improves. I know he as been sent to Henrietta Knight for some schooling but if it doesn't work he'd be a shoe-in for the stayers with that engine and turn of foot he possesses. Buveur D'air didn't take to fences and look what happened.
By:
Hibore
When: 20 Apr 20 18:43
He jumped fine in the RSA. You don’t win races of that quality if you can’t jump at speed. The time of the race was up there with the 2019 renewal and much better than Presenting Percy’s win. He went off fav in the Gold Cup for some reason I still can’t understand.

Regarding BD, he wouldn’t win a novice around plumpton the way he jumped so they had little choice.
By:
irishone
When: 20 Apr 20 19:06
Well fp you say that , but frankly watch ABP round Cheltenham , not exactly nil points
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 May 20 20:29
what i ask myself is how many of these  could i see winning a pertemps  let alone off top weight 11.12 ......and the answer is very few imo.
By:
Hibore
When: 12 May 20 21:11
Paisley park would have 11 12 with SDB on 10 10 in a handicap if you look at it that way. He needs to improve a stone to win using recent ratings but with an open looking contest anything is possible.

Interesting to see Presenting Percy has been backed into best priced 25/1 over the last few days. Could be interesting.

One horse that I spotted in the betting that is only a few pounds behind SDB and is twice the odds is Carefully Selected.
This horse makes Champ look like a show jumper and I can’t see him staying over fences. This horse is a serious stayer and I can see him being aimed at this race...unless anyone has any info on his target next season. 33/1 is worth a small punt.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 May 20 23:04
Think Lisnagar Oscar is well over priced at 16/1 -  no fluke about his win imo.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 13 May 20 07:30
it sparked a bit of debate ! which was the aim,  this years winner solid enough and decent price ,in hindsight he didnt have that much to find with paisley on previous form, but was overlooked by most me included, was probably roped in by the paisley hype and didnt give the race as much study as i should have ,still may have not found the winner but sometimes you can get lulled into a school of thought that the fav is home and hosed ,lesson learned i hope for next year . carefully selected just wonder where he will end up?
By:
impossible123
When: 13 May 20 17:46
Paisley Park is not hyped - he's proven. He just had an off-day for whatever reason. And, he can win another; Presenting Percy could be interesting, but can only be backed on the day for good reasons.
By:
irishone
When: 13 May 20 18:54
Non-entity
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 May 20 23:19
Percy hasn't a hope... They ruined the horse by keeping it with the trainer...
By:
impossible123
When: 15 May 20 15:18
^^
Regards Presenting Percy (PP): My way or the highway - his trainer. But, it's proven without a shadow of doubt PP is not good enough; a detour to this perhaps. Even then he only won a handicap hurdle not an Albert Bartlett; Tiger Roll has achieved more over hurdles than PP yet no Gold Cup.
By:
Quevega06
When: 15 May 20 19:40
I don't know Impossible, in my opinion he just hasn't progressed from his novice Chase year.. Which a decent trainer would be able to do
By:
Quevega06
When: 15 May 20 19:42
You can't knock a double Cheltenham Festival winner regardless of the races,what makes a decent trainer though is consistency which Percy hasn't had..Mall Dini was the same
By:
irishone
When: 16 May 20 11:41
The garbage on here reaches a new low , you cant knock a double cheltenham festival winner ...but then you do. How can you say the horse hasn't been consistent, 3rd in a gold cup, 5th in the savilles beaten 4 lengths, fallen once from 15 odd races over hurdles and timber ....
By:
Quevega06
When: 16 May 20 20:56
I can see a difference of opinions but just because I don't believe he hasn't reached full potential doesn't mean I'm wrong..  I wasn't knocking the horse i was saying with a better trainer and he wasn't placed in the Golf Cup, Irish Gold Cup yes..
By:
Quevega06
When: 16 May 20 20:58
He hasn't won a Chase since the RSA in 2018..
By:
irishone
When: 17 May 20 13:06
I don't think any horse would ever have been placed in "the "Golf" cup". Cry
By:
Quevega06
When: 17 May 20 21:28
I must have been smoking what you were on when selecting notebook for next year's Gold Cup
By:
irishone
When: 18 May 20 09:51
I never selected notebook for next years gold cup

Post your reference ...you cant, because I never posted it.

..... so you lie twice in one sentence, tells me all I need to know.
By:
Hibore
When: 18 May 20 22:21
Notebook was 2022 Gold Cup. Ryanair next year.
By:
Hibore
When: 19 May 20 08:32
This is what Irish posted.
He got a rough ride at Cheltenham and hes a nervous wreck anyway.when he came down the hill he tried to duck outside the field twice , his head carriage was very high. At the second last he got squeezed from a faller and he was squeezed up on the bend. He is only seven, but he showed plenty of ability to jump. This is a german bred gold cup horse in the making , hdb will have him in the ryanair before the gold cup .He loves it soft, and loves a battle when he can see daylight.


Not for me at any price in either race as I think he barely lasts out 2 miles to start with.
Opinions are opinions !
By:
GAZO
When: 19 May 20 09:22
he is built like a stayer and suspect he will be better over longer than 2 miles but his form in two runs at the festival is pretty poor so wouldnt be keen on any race for him at cheltenham
By:
irishone
When: 19 May 20 12:24
It must have been difficult for you guys getting past the janet and john books at school.

Nowhere in the above did I tip Notebook to win the Gold Cup. So why lie ?

Furthermore Why conveniently miss out these posts on the very same thread ?

sageform • April 8, 2020 10:40 AM BST
Some horses don't react well to long distance travel. I had a small interest in Notebook at Chelts when he went to 9/4 but would not back him again outside of his local tracks in Ireland. Fakir D'oudairies is the only runner that I would see as a viable Champion chase horse in the future.

Reportirishone • April 8, 2020 10:55 AM BST
Agree 100%
By:
Hibore
When: 19 May 20 15:42
I don’t see where anyone says you tipped Notebook to win either Gold Cup or Ryanair. How can we “lie” reposting what your post ?

“This is a german bred gold cup horse in the making , hdb will have him in the ryanair before the gold cup”
By:
Quevega06
When: 28 Jul 20 00:34
Any word why Percy is now with Elliott? Just a pity it wasn't done a year or two ago
By:
irishone
When: 28 Jul 20 07:08
Yep covid
By:
Quevega06
When: 28 Jul 20 13:41
In regards to what?
By:
irishone
When: 28 Jul 20 20:35
Just got back on his feet again !
By:
Paterson92
When: 23 Sep 20 21:53
Ah well there’s my first ante post down the drain ... Gordon Elliott has revealed last years Albert Bartlett 3rd, Fury Road will stay over hurdles this season and I can only assume will be campaigned towards the Stayers Hurdle. I thought he was nailed on for the RSA personally but that’s the joys of ante post I suppose!
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 05 Oct 20 15:28
having already put up sire du beaulais no harm in having a few darts so far out and have been throwing the odd tenner and score  on reining champ lisnagar oscar each way at 16/1 as unclepuncle said no fluke and beccy has said this is the target again ,going to follow a similar path to last year and ticks so many boxes imo ,been their done it ,think most feel this years stayers win is devalued because of his massive starting price of 50/1 must be a fluke !  not me though and 16/1 could prove excellent value ,will continue chucking the odd tenner and score on each way .
selection lisnagar oscar 16/1 each way
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