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FOYLESWAR
19 Mar 20 18:17
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 11
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ok the dust is starting to settle and the general consensus is that the race fell apart and that it was a poor champion chase this year ,a lot of ifs  buts  maybes but the best horse won on the day  and  looking through the field in the ante post list it could be more of the same next year .
lets look at what is likely to actually line up in the race ....we will start with altior he will be an 11 yo and is he the same horse after that titanic battle with  cyrname ? i think he may be stepped up in trip and go for the ryanaire whatever he has questions to answer now , fav is chacan su pour ,undoubtably talented but as fragile as a box of eggs ,around 6/1 i dont think i would take that for him to make the race ,defi du seul ,another more likely to step up in trip ,fakir d,oudaries  also looks to me to need further dynamite dollars also may be better over further ,the arkle  winner put the kettle on is interesting and a decent price at around 20s  she gets the 7 pound allowance if going here and is a good jumper and game the course form is a big plus . the one who really appeals and who i have been backing since last wednesday is  reigning champ politologue at a stonking 20s  on here .
certain to be targeted for the race been there done it gave altior a race last year but seemingly ignored for next years race, not by me though a brilliant jumper of a fence and nicholls has found the key to him "mad fresh" and jump off in front and catch me if you can, maybe not the sexy profile of something like chacan su pour, but a consistent performer at the top table and i can see this race cutting up dramatically like this years version come raceday .
no harm having a few at decent prices and put the kettle on also appeals at 20/1 likely to line up here , we dont know how the arkle form will stack up  but at 20s on here and shops  shes worth a pop imo
selections ..2021 champion chase ..politologue 20/1 on here 1 point win ..........put the kettle on 20/1 1 point win ............opinions encouraged, fire away.

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Replies: 183
By:
sageform
When: 19 Mar 20 20:35
I agree that 20/1 Politologue is ridiculous. It is not as if this recent run was a one off! He was second to Altior when that horse was at his peak last year and has won some very good 2 mile races. New rider and new tactics suited and no reason why he can't follow up even at 10yo. Fakir D'oudaries ran well as I have said on my Arkle thread but a lot of the runners underperformed in the Arkle. I suppose that Min could come back to 2 miles.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Mar 20 20:40
min could come back but after winning a ryanaire i would say that race again the obvious route.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Mar 20 20:47
only 10/1 with billies ,if i can continue to get around 20s on here  i will keep chipping away its too big when you consider who may turn up.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Mar 20 20:48
he also had a wind op .
By:
Hibore
When: 29 Mar 20 11:08
Good write up Foyle. I’m definitely in the camp the race fell into Politologues hands with Defi never travelling at any point of the race and the withdrawals of Chacun and Altior.
I’m keeping my powder dry regarding the Champion until things clear up with horses targets early next season.

However, I have spotted a interesting price for the Tingle that I think may be better value than your 20/1. You can see Politologue running here and with doubts any of the Irish will travel over 10/1 is very generous  The field is normally quite small so EW first 3 is not the worst bet I’ve ever seen.
By:
irishone
When: 29 Mar 20 11:36
Surely in terms of an investment at this stage its not worthy.
One thing we have learnt this year is that the very best handlers in england and ireland struggle to get them here fully fit on the day.I
Itsnot the first year its happened and it wont be the last.
Much better to reassess the situation around december and look for value then, mainly because they have half a chance of getting there.
By:
Hibore
When: 29 Mar 20 11:47
Perfect. Look forward to you returning to the forum in December.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 29 Mar 20 12:21
yup  hibore the race fell apart with the other 2 not running but as said it could fall apart again and the ? marks around the front of the market makes  20s plus look  very fair to me ,even put the kettle on could go for that new mares chase so this could look similar to this years  low turnout ,  no reason to think he will be aimed at anything else .  yes thanks for pointing out the tingle obvious target, and i will be looking into that  .
By:
Dessie the great
When: 06 Apr 20 09:39
For me Politologue was an extremely fortunate winner of the CC and I couldnt be having him for next years renewal. This years race fell apart and he had a free run in front going as hard as he could, he was still 2 seconds slower than the arkle on better ground. An admirable horse but shy of G1 standard imo.

Chacun is a worthy favourite but you couldnt be backing him now but if he turns up on the day he is the most likely winner.

JP isnt going to run both Defi and Fakir so presumably run will run here? Unless one steps up to the Gold cup trip? Who knows as of yet.

Put the Kettle On was a good winner of the Arkle, seemed to idle after the last before running on again in the last 100 yards. Would need to improve to trouble Chacun if he turns up but she is only a 6 yr old. Mares chase is an option but that is over 2m 4 and 2 miles seems her trip.

Notebook is a big price and was a worthy arkle fav. If you excuse his run in the arkle due to a tough race in the DRF then he is a big price for this. If you think he doesnt handle the track (2 poor runs here) then keep your money in your pocket.

Hard to see anything else getting involved at this stage. Maybe Brewinupastorm with more experience could have potential but hard to see it at this stage. Will Mister Fisher drop back in trip? Is he good enough anyways? I dont think so.

No bet at the moment, Chacun most likely winner with PTKO the main danger if she goes here and not the mares
By:
Dessie the great
When: 06 Apr 20 09:57
For me Politologue was an extremely fortunate winner of the CC and I couldnt be having him for next years renewal. This years race fell apart and he had a free run in front going as hard as he could, he was still 2 seconds slower than the arkle on better ground. An admirable horse but shy of G1 standard imo.

Chacun is a worthy favourite but you couldnt be backing him now but if he turns up on the day he is the most likely winner.

Altior is 11 next year and seems to have regressed this year. The ground was used as an excuse for his Cyrname defeat but soft or heavy ground had never bothered him before. I fear the younger legs will have too much pace and hunger for him.

JP isnt going to run both Defi and Fakir so presumably run will run here? Unless one steps up to the Gold cup trip? Who knows as of yet.

Put the Kettle On was a good winner of the Arkle, seemed to idle after the last before running on again in the last 100 yards. Would need to improve to trouble Chacun if he turns up but she is only a 6 yr old. Mares chase is an option but that is over 2m 4 and 2 miles seems her trip.

Notebook is a big price and was a worthy arkle fav. If you excuse his run in the arkle due to a tough race in the DRF then he is a big price for this. If you think he doesnt handle the track (2 poor runs here) then keep your money in your pocket.

Hard to see anything else getting involved at this stage. Maybe Brewinupastorm with more experience could have potential but hard to see it at this stage. Will Mister Fisher drop back in trip? Is he good enough anyways? I dont think so.

No bet at the moment, Chacun most likely winner with PTKO the main danger if she goes here and not the mares

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By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 06 Apr 20 10:59
chacan looks the likely winner if getting there but  an 8 yo who has had 5 races in total tells its own story.
By:
irishone
When: 06 Apr 20 11:37
The bet at this stage has to be dynamite dollars, 33/1 currently, if you are going to get a small field, like you say,  he wont be 7/1 like he was this year, and he was backed in from 20's as well,  that mistake four out cost him but he will be a year older and wiser, and a free bet once you get there , if you are silly enough to put your money where your mouth is eleven months down the road !
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 06 Apr 20 12:14
fools rush in or fortune favours the brave.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 06 Apr 20 12:16
dynamite decent chance if turning up just think he might step up to ryanaire good price tho 44 on here .
By:
Hibore
When: 06 Apr 20 12:26
Irish, why are you even looking at the race in April. Mugging yourself off.
By:
irishone
When: 06 Apr 20 17:37
Everyone is entitled to an opinion

I firmly believe ......

So mine is if you are going to guess from a year out ....get a decent price
By:
Hibore
When: 06 Apr 20 18:08
Notebook for the Gold Cup and now Dynamite Dollars in the Champion Chase.

Some top quality guessing over the last few days Irish Laugh
By:
irishone
When: 07 Apr 20 08:23
Poor bait hibore.

"Must try harder"
By:
Hibore
When: 07 Apr 20 11:18
Let’s just say you have given a gift that will keep on giving LaughLaughLaugh
By:
irishone
When: 07 Apr 20 12:32
Oleary ...eddie that is, continues to search in germany for his next don cossack, who is to say notebook isnt the one! I would want 100\1 either of them before having a bet, madness now , unless you are in the know.
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Apr 20 14:10
May I suggest Presenting Percy for this? He's insufficiently competitive over 3m chases in Gp company. Otherwise, have a go at the Stayers with the present predicament of Paisley Park. Or retirement if repetitive bridesmaid is not acceptable to connections and loyal supporters.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 07 Apr 20 14:12
for this he be lapped , stayers yes worth a gon!
By:
impossible123
When: 07 Apr 20 14:57
I understand my suggestion might sound barmy. But, desperate time calls for desperate measure. A Sizing John in reverse!
By:
irishone
When: 07 Apr 20 17:13
why speak about which you know feck all, dont tell me a brainwave crossed your tiny little mind and you thought yes i will post that on the cheltenham forum. Like most of your thoughts they lack depth or referenced study . I take it your mother sued the condom factory after your birth.
By:
irishone
When: 11 Apr 20 10:28
...and if you are still silly enough

Dynamite dollard suffered a fatal injury

Beginning to think this race is bokked
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 11 Apr 20 12:16
Sad rip dd.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Apr 20 14:14
What a shame with Dynamite Dollar. RIP!

No price for Presenting Percy at all for this. I was thinking of a small wager (seriously).
By:
irishone
When: 11 Apr 20 14:38
All the morons have left ...try fat jockey Wink
By:
FatPunt
When: 15 Apr 20 17:42
Notebook the one for me. Had a hard race at DRF and may need longer breaks between races given his size. 40's avalible with some firms looks far to big, thats if we ever race again!!!
By:
duffy
When: 18 Apr 20 03:43
The value at this stage for me and has been long forgotten is Le Richebourg 40/1....he was a brilliant novice and favourite for the Arkle before injury intervened, they ultimately pulled the plug this year, I think he may have gone into this past season as JP'S number 1 hope for the champion chase but of course DDS had a good season in his own right.

His bubble has not been burst yet but he's priced as if it has..40's too big.
By:
irishone
When: 19 Apr 20 15:32
Needs good ground mate
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 03 Oct 20 10:14
ptko runs at gowran today 2.4 m chase ,a race that de bromhead started sizing europe off in several times , no easy task today facing some race fit rivals . interesting !
By:
unclepuncle
When: 03 Oct 20 10:25
A Plus Tard at 18/1 for me.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 03 Oct 20 12:32
although i put up ptko as a bet stil havent played her yet ,not unduly worried as her price has not got much smaller ,will hold off as a nagging doubt about the arkle form holding up.
By:
buddeliea
When: 14 Nov 20 12:26
Really hope the Arkle form holds up Foyles, i have PTKO and Rouge Vic against the field!!
Interesting race tomorrow for me.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 15 Nov 20 11:15
rouge vif ron nunner today
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Nov 20 12:53
No surprise with the ground as it is.
Sensible thing to do.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 15 Nov 20 14:32
bit of a puzzler that race winner dug in well tho , hobbses  are in horrendous form
By:
duffy
When: 15 Nov 20 15:04
Watching DDS at the first took me back to Eddie Macken firing one over the Puissance wall at the Horse Of The Year show each year.
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