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foxy
05 Mar 20 19:52
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Date Joined: 26 Dec 00
| Topic/replies: 12,696 | Blogger: foxy's blog
Matched at 9/2 for supreme novice

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Replies: 75
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 05 Mar 20 20:02
elliot said theres a big chance envoi goes to supreme as not sure he wants a slog over 2.5 on bad going , or words to that effect
By:
foxy
When: 05 Mar 20 20:05
That’s correct foyleswar he has said that all along
By:
Deptford
When: 05 Mar 20 20:20
Trainef said all options open, will walk the course on Saturday and decide, its on RP website.
By:
Deptford
When: 05 Mar 20 20:21
Trainer
By:
foxy
When: 05 Mar 20 20:37
So clown on another thread thinks it’s disgusting and something needs to be doneCrazy
By:
duffy
When: 06 Mar 20 14:19
Under the circumstances a very sensible decision, is fully effective at 2 miles and despite his likely presence in the Ballymore it has not served to scare horses away resulting in the Ballymore being the strongest out of these two races IMO with a few horses in it that look like thorough stayers who'd appreciate a right test at the trip.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 06 Mar 20 14:25
what makes you say duffy that it looks the stronger of the 2 races when no horse has even won in graded company in the ballymore??
By:
duffy
When: 06 Mar 20 15:03
I think many of the main protagonists in the Supreme have negatives against them that they have to overcome, whereas many of the main protagonists behind EA in the Ballymore, SJ, TBG, TBB all look like strong contenders who have been highly impressive and may well have won graded races but haven't been given the chance, I think that the Supreme has at least a couple horses that are in the wrong race in AF and CH. I agree that it isn't the strongest purely on the formbook but many of the front runners haven't failed at a higher level they just haven't had the chance, but saying that, SJ did absolutely smash up MD who had been a previous graded winner himself didn't he.

The long standing favourite for the Supreme is only a listed winner isn't he but comparing the English and Irish in terms of measuring graded wins is a bit unfair as the Irish top novices would routinely have run in them, I believe that SJ and TBB would now be graded winners had they been Irish trained, they certainly would have run in them.
By:
buddeliea
When: 06 Mar 20 15:09
Could not agree more Duffy, you just saved me some time composing a post,much appreciatedLaugh
By:
penzance
When: 06 Mar 20 15:33
still think this will run in the Ballymore.
If he was Supreme bound he would'nt be @4/1
on here.Looks like the weather may improve
a bit aswell.Took him on in the Supreme as well
as the two in the same ownership.
   GL ALL
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Mar 20 21:30
After the run of Abacadabras in the Supreme this beast will be backed (already has) till thy kingdom come (again) tomorrow. The journos and tipsters are opposing him big time; their Irish Banker was Benie Des Dieux (apparently).
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 11 Mar 20 12:49
i may need sectioning after this but there may not be much if anything between the irish and english the supreme result may give a hint . envoi may be the 2nd coming but i am taking him on with 3 of the english at massive prices ,mossey fen stays and has decent form and is a game fooka and available at near 100/1 on here and 33s plus w/0 the fav ,son of camas also a massive price and hendo has some decent novices big price w/o fav and a win bet on the big breakaway ............potential big return for peanuts laid out .good luck all .
By:
buddeliea
When: 11 Mar 20 12:55
Well the form looks strong after yesterday for sure, but worth taking on with horses that may or may not be better than him.
By:
sageform
When: 11 Mar 20 14:40
Wow, Ireland 123 and the best GB horses beaten 20 lengths.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Mar 20 14:55
I took him on and 'lay' a very small amount to risk manage. But, make no mistake he's a very good horse the further the went.As such, the RSA next year, I'd think as the JLT might be too short; the Gold Cup in 2022 all being well.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 11 Mar 20 15:11
got it wrong there but  if yer gonna get it wrong do it in style ,only a small outlay so minimal damage
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Apr 20 16:02
Which is his most likely target, the JLT or RSA? He ran in the Neptune over 2m 5f, and his ultimate target is the Gold Cup.
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 16:40
I would guess the jlt and I wouldn’t completely rule out the champion hurdle.
By:
Hibore
When: 06 Apr 20 17:25
I would lean strongly towards the RSA. The Gold Cup is definitely the long term aim so I can’t really see the point of going Marsh route.
If he was mine I’d go for a couple of 2.5m races and then RSA. Plenty of options at this early stage though.

Regarding the Champion hurdle I’m not so sure. He looked a little outpaced over the ballymore trip until his class and stamina kicked in. Not sure he’s speedy enough for CH unless the ground was very soft.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Apr 20 17:48
Using No More Heroes as a guide he ran in the Navan Hurdle over 2m 4f beating Shaneshill, then Albert Bartlett before taking in the RSA; Envoi Allen asserted and ran on after the last in the Neptune. Also, Elliot has Abacadabras who ran Shishkin close in the Supreme.

I'd think the RSA more likely with Abacadabras the JLT. But, I cannot see  Elliot will want Envoi Allen going for the Champion Hurdle given the bad experience with Samcro (I understand different ownership).
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 17:53
I would be surprised if both went novice chasing especially abracadabras,kicking king went arkle in his novice season as did war of attrition.
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 17:59
War of attrition started his chase career over 2 m 6f at Thurles kicking king 2 m at punchestown
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 18:03
Which horse would you say was the more impressive in the ballymore samcro or envoi Allen?
By:
Hibore
When: 06 Apr 20 18:17
Both were impressive but Samcro showed much more natural speed and pace. EA powered home doing his best work at the end of the race.
There aren’t many horses that I can remember that going into the season could be favourite on the day in either Champion Hurdle or RSA Laugh
He’s a special horse that is for certain.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Apr 20 18:27
I think Envoi Allen (EA) is more likely for the RSA too the way he ran the Neptune, but the market is no guide either. However, for the Champion Hurdle only 2 horses I'd back at present eg Goshen (but very short at 9/2) and Shishkin (16/1/unlikely runner though).

I'm very surprised Abacadabras is only 8/1 for this. Is he a definite? Or could he go the JLT?
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 18:44
Thinking back hibore samcro was either at the front of the betting or close to it for those same two races.


Impossible the biggest thing against abracadabras going for the champion hurdle which should be his target is the owners ,they dipped there toes n with samcro and it didn’t work out,they may well wrongly insist on going chasing next season.
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 18:50
I think time will tell Envoi Allen beat a much stronger field than samcro I know the 2 nd and 3 rd went on to win grade ones at aintree and punchestown and the 5 th won the arkle.
By:
Hibore
When: 06 Apr 20 18:59
It was Samcro your right. 4/1 JLT, 6/1 each for the Champion Hurdle and RSA.
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 19:06
I was pleased to see him win the jlt this year hopefully he can kick on from that.
By:
Hibore
When: 06 Apr 20 19:11
Where do you think he’ll go next season ? Ryanair seems most likely to me.
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 19:21
You would think so hibore but the Savils at Christmas would be worth a try then take it from there.possibly start of in the grade 2 clonmel oil in mid November won by douvan this season monalee 3 rd,generally speaking it’s not that a competitive race then up to 3 mile at leopardstown then decide.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Apr 20 19:24
I think Samcro would be Ryanair bound too unless something untoward deprives Delta Work of a run in the Blue Riband. I think Samcro needs more experience over fences; jumping against seasoned fencers in the Gold Cup could be step-too-soon next season, I think.

Samcro was much shorter - between 4/1 and 6/1 here - for the JLT; 16/1 and more for the RSA (next season almost identical price fr either race). After the trashing from Faugheen at Limerick he went out to 20 and more here.
By:
foxy
When: 06 Apr 20 19:35
I very much doubt delta works target will influence any decision on samcro gigginstown can never be accused of avoiding each other.
By:
irishone
When: 02 Jun 20 08:44
dont do antepost generally
(mares rock and panic attack side last year)
but taken the 16/1 on here for the champion hurdle
following interesting discussion with farrier this morning
By:
Hibore
When: 03 Jun 20 10:08
What did the farrier say to make you put a tenner on ?
By:
Nogoody
When: 03 Jun 20 15:02
Can't be sure, he had a mouthful of nails.
By:
irishone
When: 03 Jun 20 18:24
Laugh
By:
Nogoody
When: 07 Jun 20 17:09
I stuck him in a little Yankee, Irish,
Envoi 11  CH.hdl.
Abacadabras 17 Arkle
Latest exhibition 17 R.S.A.
Sire due Berlais 16  Stayers.
£1 e.w. accer & 50p Yankee gets me 90 grand.
As I said last year, might as well dream here as in bed.
By:
Nogoody
When: 16 Jun 20 10:03
Sorry for pausing the the thread, my betting brain had been suffering the equivalent of " Blue Balls " since ****. happened, I've since had some relief.
I believe that if the same ,or more likely, a naturally improved Envoi rocks up, he will win any race in which he's entered. Its up to us, as punters, to find, decide or just plain guess which race that will be.
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