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Cheltenham Festival
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These 293 comments are related to the topic:
Santini - Gold Cup 2020
Santini - Gold Cup 2020
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https://www.britishhorseracing.com/regulation/official-ratings/ratings-database/#!?q=santini
There you go |
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He's into as short as 5/1 with 11/2 generally available. On what he's shown this season? Not my number 1 contender despite holding a 12/1 antepost voucher.
The Irish Gold Cup on sunday will tell us significantly more esp if Kemboy can give a drubbing to Delta Work and Presenting Percy - a comparison could be made with Santini using Delta Work. |
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The key to winning the Gold Cup is staying the trip. I don’t think whatever the result in the Irish Gold Cup you can honestly say Kemboy, Percy or Delta stay up that hill.
By the end of the race on Sunday they would be just about 2 out in the GC. Santini, Native and ABP are the only ones who have nothing to prove and are priced accordingly. Kemboy is my fancy on Sunday but not even in my calculations for the Gold Cup. He’ll also win at Aintree again after fading after the last in March. |
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It's a shame on the two occasions Kemboy ran over 3.25m and further he fell at the very 1st fence; beat CDO at Aintree over 3m if easily and going away similarly ABP at Punchestown. But, I believe he'll stay the Gold Cup trip and hill given his victories over CDO and ABP.
I only have a small bet on Kemboy because he's trained by Mr Mullins similarly ABP (no single bet) - only in doubles/trebles on each as a saver; Lostintranslation (16/1) and Santini (12/1) are my other singles for the Gold Cup. |
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I have a feeling that the IGC is a bigger deal fro Kemboy than for DW. GE has been very clear that DW will not be primed until March. I am not sure connections of Kemboy can or should take that risk. One he has been prevented from running and is playing catch up a little bit and 2 they don’t yet know if his Cheltenham record is circumstance or something more significant. For me Kemboy has to finish in front of DW Sunday but it does not follow the other way round. I certainly fundamentally disagree with impossibles very black and white perspective.
Many are on at juicy prices but I will consider going in again if he drifts on the back of a Kemboy defeat. If he wins the market is going to be very interesting as last years RSA will likely be seen as the race though many I suspect will be acknowledging it very reluctantly. |
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The key to winning the GC isn't only staying the trip, lot's of boats stay the trip, you have to be able to stay and hold your position throughout the race, the horse needs a strong pace but it's a fine line with him because he is a particular horse that is at risk of being taken off his feet if he's uncomfortable with the pace, at that point if the jockey is having to ask too much too early then you will eat into his reserves at the wrong part of the race.
People always make the mistake that an assumption of an end to end gallop will suit an out and out stayer, but a Native River doing it from the front and ramping it up at his own pace is quite different to be asked to go too quick too early in behind, add in the fact that Santini is bone idol and he's risky, his current price is rotten. |
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Indeed. Apart from his awful record at Cheltenham I'd have Kemboy over Santini any day even over this trip as I believe he'll stay the distance; he was entered in a 3m 5f race, but fell at the 1st.
The present price of Santini is an over-exaggeration of his beating of BDM in The Cotswold which is not comparable to that of Lostintranslation over the same rival in the Betfair Chase. |
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Kemboy stays,don't worry about that.
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This staying the trip business,its what makes the race so fascinating every year for me.
We always have runners going into the unknown against runners that have been there and done it. Native River and ABP previous winners,then we have Kemboy,PP,DW,Santini,LIT,Monalee, who have all imo proved that they could be capable of a big run in a Gold Cup. I would normally disregard a horse that won the KG well and then run in this race and disappointed, but I am going to add CDO to the list as trainer thinks the different campaign this time will see him perform better than last year,and who am I to argue with him!! His price on the day will be the main factor as to whether I have him on my side. So going back to this staying business...….the two previous winners of course stay well enough to win the race. I think its pretty clear that Santini will stay ok, the others not so clear,in fact rather muddy!! But,as said theres the fascination,and I hope they all stay ok...….and DW stays best!!! |
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”The present price of Santini is an over-exaggeration of his beating of BDM in The Cotswold which is not comparable to that of Lostintranslation over the same rival in the Betfair Chase.“
Not comparable? What’s the logic there ?? Duffy, you been watching Road to Cheltenham and Walsh trying to defend himself over Santini  Lydia made him look like a mug. |
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Lostintranslation beat BDM who is a specialist at Haydock (Betfair), and on the latter's favoured ground too decisively and convincingly - fairly and squarely; BDM stumbled at the 3rd or 2nd last against Santini in the Cotswold. Also, Santini did look he was tap-for-toe which will undoubtedly be the case again in the early part in the Gold Cup.
I think the price of Lostintranslation (7/1) would be shorter than Santini (11/2) if he'd not run in the King George, but for the £1m bonus carrot. I believe, all things considered, the beating of BDM by Lostintranslation was more superior, visually and performance. Lostintranslation and Kemboy to fight out the finish in the Blue Riband - here's hoping. |
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Hibore, I haven't seen that actually, but it's not rocket science because it's a bang obvious question from his lazy run style.
Nice to see Walsh agrees with me, but as I say it's an obvious point. Santini is Don Poli mark 2, still a good horse though and if the fractions are right and he can hold his place he has a chance, but again his current price is filth. |
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After the fiasco with the ground at Leopardstown today, how many will run in the Irish Gold Cup and of those that ran today, how many will be jarred up for Cheltenham?
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what fiasco,nothing wrong with the going compared to last year,its just that some wanted pretty soft going
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I suspect this meeting will have more than its share of NRs. Too soft and many connections will not want a slog so close to the festival and not soft enough we have seen already. It’s a bold experiment and it’ll be interesting to see if it lasts the distance.
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Most of the races today have left more questions than answers for me.
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no suprise if gigginstown have a few nonners tommorow
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The going must have been significantly different from expectations. The trainers and owners clearly wanted to run in such high value races but were concerned that the horses would be damaged if they did so. Several good horses were tailing off after half a mile so something was very wrong imo. Equally some lower rated horses that coped with conditions appeared to improve by loads so there was no consistency.
If it was just yielding (good/soft in UK) as GAZO suggests then those who withdrew will face the same problem in March in 9 years out of 10. |
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Gordon Elliot not happy.
Delta Work may not be running today. The way hes talking ,for my bet at Chelt,i hope he don't. Looks like a lack of watering has caused trainers to be wary of running. |
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Ok, 5 weeks to go.
Antepost bets from beginning of thread SANTINI 10points ew 12/1 Lost 2points ew 14/1 More than happy with position and not laying off. ABP - 4/1 good reappearance and worthy fav Kemboy - 5/1 speedy type that underwhelmed on return and needs to prove he stays. Poor value CDO - 6/1 didn’t stay last year and think this years race will be even more testing. Delta Work 8/1 - did well to win Saville and looks like stamina is a strong suit. Still value. Presenting Percy - 10/1 should be double the odds but has a cult following of skint punters who watch his 2018 RSA on YouTube each day. Shocking value Native River - 14/1 looked better last race and could still be a threat if getting into a rhythm as will outstay most of this field. I’m going to add Delta Work to my portfolio today at 15/2 NRNB. Antepost bets SANTINI 10points ew 12/1 Lost 2points ew 14/1 and Delta 3points ew 8/1 Good luck with your bets. |
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has a cult following of skint punters who watch his 2018 RSA on YouTube each day.
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elliot not happy means gigginstown are not happy,yesterdays times suggest good/soft going and most of the races were won by the fancied horses,as our handicapper is finding out with tiger roll its gigginstown way or no way
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I wouldn’t be surprised if GE swerves this meeting next year. Seems like he is a reluctant player at best this year. I suspect he would like this race out of the way with no dramas and see you next month.
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PP must be getting very nervous now. I thought he might be vulnerable today but I was hugely impressed
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Happy I added Delta to my string...won’t be 8/1 now.
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Santini has nothing to fear from those three.
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Thrilled to bits by that race. Wouldn’t swap my Santini bet for anything.
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let's hope they all make the gig.
Cracker in prospect.Kemboy and last year's winner for me ,though. GL ALL |
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I hope the bookies agree.....doubt they will though.
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Agree with England that is
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not much leverage in the market at the
current prices,only Presenting Percy (14s) could move in on the day,maybe Kemboy (8s). Probably wait till the da now. Good luck to those on fancied runners AP. |
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Well somebody at PP certainly doesn’t like this horse. I confess I am intrigued considering the links. Like it’s a double bluff
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Which horse ? Percy...
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No DW they were out on a limb for ages at 25s and I kept hoovering it up and they are biggest now too.
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Santini clipped in again 5/1 NRNB now.
In my opinion you can put a line through Percy and Kemboy now. Can't see how they finish ahead of Delta now they have been beaten in both a steady and true run race by the same horse with neither looking like the extra distance would turn things round. Can't have CDO staying trip as didn't last year so line through him. Although I've backed Lostintranslation at 14/1 I'm not confident and not many GC winners win after being pulled up in their last race (if any ?). line through him. So we have only 4 who can win. Santini  Delta Al Boum Native |
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Cool Dawn won the Gold Cup after being
PU the race before,5/4 fav Agfa Diamond Chse Sandown. |
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Thanks Pen,
My 14/1 still as a chance then. |
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has*
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Also not the race before but I think
Looks Like Trouble PU in the King George, but did win his next start prior to the GC. |
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People on here are giving Santini and Delta Work
big chances,Lostintrannslation did beat Topofthegame convincinly 6L@ Aintree.He did beat Bristol De Mai aswell.Big player if right. GL |