Officially a twicer IMO, horrible head carriage, couldn't back it going forward myself.

I've always thought that Santini wants it heavy and isn't as good on better ground.

He wouldn't have been for me AP, even if he'd blown them out of the water today.

He's a bit like that Hadrian horse Hendo had in the same colours. Talented, but not exceptional.

Not sure what to make of the GC at this early stage. Perhaps if Percy is given a proper campaign he might one to be interested in?

Not really surprised by yesterday’s performance as Santini is not a park course horse. He beat McGinty out of sight at Cheltenham in the RSA and would again if they reapposed in the Cotswold. The time of the race was 13 secs slower than the RSA as well which tells its own story.
His head carriage wasn’t great and with him on and off the bridle I would suggest some headgear next time. But on reflection the ability is definitely there and I only need him perform in March.

Weirdly enough if I had to choose between Lostintraslation or Santini turning into the straight on March 13th after both their recent runs I’d choose Santini. It’s still the only race he’ll run that will be run to suit his strengths.

I’m not sure how ratings made him a 4/5 shot. You can argue the track made him vulnerable at 1/3 but he was by far the best horse before and after the race.

Actually i think ‘mullins’ would be the first to acknowledge how difficult it  has been for him to transition a top staying novice to become a gold cup winner.  I suspect he would also be the first to acknowledge that it was far from plain sailing with his own GC winner. There were very few people at the start of last season touting abp as this years go winner. It is very dangerous to draw meaningful conclusions at such an early stage on these second season chasers imo.

Abp was I believe rated only 1 pound higher than santini is now when he lined up for this years gc. Also I think it is quite reasonable to suggest that abp jumping is far from perfect.

Also while ‘Mullins’ may not be losing any sleep after watching dw or santini, I very much suspect he may feel differently about lost. So two have disappointed and one has excelled 4/5 months before the festival. Seriously we are already playing the tribal card.

Santini has never been out of the first 3. Never fallen and averages 15k of prize money every time he lines up. He is very lightly raced and is fully entitled to improve through the season. He is a stuffy horse coming off a very stop start season as a novice. His pipe opener was exactly as I expected it to be and had the trainer expressed this before the race then I think the reaction would have been more measured. The jockey called it right. The horse made a fool of them as he does nothing at home and obviously looked well and had been jumping well at home.

This is when the trainer earns his corn. He now has information that he has already told us he will act on. If he is not trying to solve the unsolvable than I believe we will see a different horse come March. If he truly is no better than a dour high class handicapper then the trainer can do nothing.

The connections of both santini and dw have got there data points early and this might just turn out to be a blessing in disguise as good performances can leave trainers a little complacent.

I would be amazed if there are not many ups and downs in the gc market between now and March and I think it would be unwise to make too many black and white judgements this early.

So was giants causeway a screw or a battler. When they win they are brave when they lose they are a screw. I still can’t believe he got beat by tizznow.

Nobody will worry unduly about santini resolution if he wins by a nose. Lose by a nose and you still make a profit ew. How many times has the phrase just does enough or idled in front been used more as a positive than negative. I would be much more worried if he had lost that battle. Maybe a lack of resolution was why he didn’t win rsa but there are a number of perfectly plausible alternative explanations. Personally until he loses a race I feel he should have won I wouldn’t worry unduly about his resolution.

For me the jury is out on the horse. I absolutely see the possibility that he is too slow for a gc. It is possible he is dodgy but for me it is also possible he can improve dramatically on his pipe opener and come into his own in an attritional gc. At a double figure price you wouldn’t have to pay too much  to find out.

Hibore, Santini had 6lb in hand but Talkischeap was a course winner so I would make that much closer than 1/3. Throw in 2 others who might be improvers and Santini's lack of a run, the risk of a fall, interference in running etc. and I thought his price was crazy. He only won narrowly despite jumping better than he often has in the past. I would happily lay him again every time he runs.

I can see that and the Gold Cup is not always won by the best horse. I still think that Tizzard has 3 better than him and Nicky as good as said he is nowhere near Altior. and then there are Nicholls, Mullins and Elliott to contend with.

If Santini’s performance was so bad why are his odds still the same ? Maybe it’s because they know he’ll relish returning to a more suitable track and conditions.

Sage can you tell me who you think is the 3rd Tizzard horse that is better than Santini. I’m just interested as I can only think of Elegant Escape but can’t be him.

Last thing on Mullins mind is hendo, jpob or Gordon fair play but hendo ?

Out of interest which of Nicholls and Elliott’s horses are ahead of santini in terms of potential to win a gc. Out of a sense of balance it feels unfair to give dw more of a pass for being beat a distance than santini for winning and I am not even sure that cdo will run in the race and despite being a big fan of the horse I would be dumbstruck if he wins a gc.

Just a personal thing but I am prepared to give both dw and santini a pass at this stage. But either way round to give one and not the other a pass based on their rsa runs and their first time out runs is head scratching. For me to do this it would be fuelled by an emotive not rational agenda which I have learnt to my cost is disastrous in my fight against the bookies. But maybe dw is not the horse sageform had in mind?

None of those are trained by Elliott but thanks for confirming your nicholls horse was black cotton. I wonder if a bookie will give you odds on a straight match.

I didn't specify a Nicholls horse and I don't think that Black Corton will win a GC either but his rating happens to be 2lb higher than Santini achieved in the RSA. Clan des Obeaux and Cyrname are rated much higher while even Elegant Escape is 1lb above Santini. If you believe in RPR or OR, Santini would not finish in the first ten. Might Bite could also come back to closer to his best and prove the best of Henderson's contenders if Altior does not stay. I am very happy to be proved wrong but the Santini hype seems totally unjustified by what he has done so far. I don't know as much about the Irish staying chasers but there are probably 2 or 3 that could beat all of the above.

Sage you have totally confused me. You said that santini had nicholls and Elliott to contend with in your 2028 post and I just wanted to know which of their horses you had in mind. You haven’t mentioned an Elliott horse and black corton was the nicholls horse on your list so I assumed obviously incorrectly that you were answering the question is asked in my 1715 post.

What is wrong with Clan des Obeaux or Cyrname? No idea what Elliott's main contenders are but I'm sure he has some. I was not being specific in the original post, just listing what I see as a dozen horses or potential pitfalls in backing Santini. Somebody might bring over one of the very good French chasers just to add to the pot. 20/1 Santini for the Welsh National off 156 might tempt me but that is about it.

I answered about cdo in my 1715 post so didn’t feel the need to repeat myself and I have nothing against cyrname but for me it would be a huge risk to try and make him a gc horse this season

Of course and I expect one of them to improve quite a lot but which one? I'm sure a lot of his fans would judge Presenting Percy on his RSA win rather than what he did last year but did he improve or not? At the prices I could be tempted by Presenting Percy at 16 and Vinndication (only 2lb behind Santini's RSA best and 8lb better than Santini did at Sandown) at 36 but only because they are unexposed against the senior chasers. It is the most open Gold Cup at this stage for 20 years.

Unless there is one I don't know about.
LIT only Tizzard horse.
CDO Kempton but not Cheltenham.
Cyrname wont run,right handed horse.

Elliott's best at the moment are Al Boum Photo 168 and Delta Work 165.